Divisional Round Crystal Ball: What To Expect This Weekend

It's often debated what the best weekend of the sports calendar is. Some say it's Master's weekend. Others will say opening weekend of March Madness, while some nutcases are crazy enough to say the Super Bowl.

I toggle between this past weekend (Wild Card) or this coming one. Football is king, and I don't get excited about another sport more than I do this one. And there's no better weekend than these two. I understand the lore of week 1, when imagination runs wild and possibilities are endless, and sitting on your couch knowing that this will be your Sundays for the next four months can bring a man to tears.

But the stakes are low. However great it is to have 13/14 games play off on a single day doesn't match the emotional roller coaster you ride when you watch a playoff game. The feeling that any play can doom your season, when every snap has and requires your full, undivided attention.

The Divisional Round is historically the better of the two weekends as far as on-field product. And if that's the case this year, we're in for a hell of a treat. Let's dig in.

Bills/Broncos

Am I crazy enough to pick against Josh Allen again? After he jagged the jagoffs of the Jags off in Jacksonville last week to an almost perfect game, beating a much more well-rounded team on the road basically by himself?

I don't think I am.

I really didn't expect the Bills to win last week. I thought the Jags would win the line of scrimmage battle defensively and take the Bills run game out of sync. I thought Jacksonville on the flip side would be able to run outside the tackles at will, as every other team has done against Buffalo this year.

Well, both of those things happened. But it didn't matter.

The Bills forced two Trevor Lawrence interceptions and turned the Jags over on downs deep in their zone. And when you have 17 as your QB, that's all you need.

Why I can see Buffalo winning this game isn't because of Josh Allen's ability to defy the odds and put up 27 on one of the best defenses in football in one of the toughest places to play (although it partly is). It's because I think they matchup slightly better against Denver than they did Jacksonville.

For starters, Denver's offense is far less explosive than Jacksonville's. For quarters and even halves of games throughout the season the Broncos offense gets stuck in mud. So I think the weakness of Buffalo's defense is somewhat mitigated compared to last week. Potentially getting Ed Oliver back will mitigate even further.

Second, despite Denver having one of the more prolific defenses in the game, they struggle to guard the middle of the field. Denver ranks 25th in DVOA against slot receivers and 18th to TEs, which is where Buffalo lives and dies.

And will especially so this week, after losing both Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to knee injuries on Sunday. As of now, Buffalo only has three healthy WRs on the roster, with Curtis Samuel expected to return to make a fourth. Because of this lack of depth, I expect the Bills to run a lot of 12 and 13 personnel, heavily featuring the TEs.

Lastly, and this is less analytical, I just don't trust Denver that much. Their defense is great, but the offense leaves too much to be desired. They have the 6th best point differential of remaining playoff teams, and are 4th out of the four remaining AFC teams. At +90, the Broncos have the second worst point differential of any 14-win team in NFL history. Of that +90, +64 comes from the fourth quarter.

They are not a dominant team. They've flirted with disaster all year. And Bo Nix hasn't played with this much pressure since he got run out of Auburn for not living up to expectations.

I think the Bills get out to a lead, and while their defense allows multiple fourth quarter TDs, Josh makes enough plays to pull off another upset. Expect a BIG day from the TE duo.

The Pick: Bills

49ers/Seahawks

I spoke very highly of the 49ers earlier this week, and every word I said was warranted. How they're in this game with the injuries they've been burdened with is remarkable.

But their magical run ends here. In case you forgot, I'm a little bias towards Seattle, seeing as I was the only person on the internet to have correctly predicted them winning the NFC West this year.

So of course I'm taking the Hawks in this game. But even if I took bias out of it, I'd still pick them.

We saw this game play out just two weeks ago in San Francisco. The 49ers, who's offense was flying higher than Snoop Dogg coming into the game, was completely shut down and held to 3 points. Without George Kittle in that game, as they will be in this game, the Niners aren't the same team. And Seattle showed it has the ability to limit CMC.

Defensively, SF just doesn't have the dudes. It's not their fault, their best dudes are all injured. But against a Seahawks team that can run with a yin and yang backfield, especially against this SF defense who ranks 24th against the run, which then sets Darnold up in play action, when he's in his bag the most, with JSN on the outside/inside/doesn't matter, I don't see the Niners having much success on that side of the ball.

The problem is the best unit on either team is Seattle's defense, so SF doesn't have the advantage there either. I've lauded this defensive front since the preseason, and my praise was never enough. Them and Houston are the nastiest defenses in the league, can get pressure without bringing extra guys, and have the secondary to back it up. I love everything about this team.

So yeah, it's a heart pick. But it's also a head pick. I wouldn't be surprised if the fighting Shanahan's kept this a game into the fourth quarter. But I would be surprised if they win.

The Pick: Seahawks

Texans/Patriots

Contrary to popular belief, nothing that took place Monday night in Pittsburgh struck fear in me. Anyone with any sense knew how incompetent the Steelers offense was, and how it stood no chance against this Houston defense. I know I did.

That's not to say I have no fear going up against this defense; just that Monday didn't change my opinion. My opinion, as I've stated since week 6 when I called the 2-3 Texans the dark horse of the AFC, is that this is as good of a defense as we've seen in the NFL in years. They attack you on all levels. They get constant pressure with a four man rush, and their secondary is among the best in the league.

Yeah, I'm definitely scared.

But we just played a similar team in the Chargers, albeit not quite as dominant a defense, and put up nearly 400 yards of offense. Defensively, against a similarly talented offense as Houston, we played like Houston, with the Chargers gaining just over 200 yards of offense and the Pats defense recording double the amount of sacks as points allowed.

So I think the matchup is in our favor. CJ Stroud proved last week he can be turned into a pumpkin, and if we can cause some of those bonehead decisions to be made again, we at least have a hope of moving the ball and putting points on the board. In fact, I'll go on a limb and guarantee that if CJ turns the ball over three times we win. I know, call me crazy.

I don't see Houston having a lot of success against our defense, so the game will likely be determined on offense. Can Drake and the offense outwit, outlast, and outplay the Texans D? Can the offensive line, who had a rough night against LA Sunday, bow up against the four man rush and force Houston to bring extra defenders to generate pressure? Can we get their ultra-aggressive secondary to bite on a double move for a big gain or three? Can Drake not turn the ball over, and at worst punt the ball away and play the field position game?

If those answers are yeses, I think our odds. I like our odds anyway. There's something about this team. There's something about this quarterback. The Patriots will win this game and be back in our rightful home, the place where for 10+ years our seasons used to begin: conference championship weekend.

The Pick: Patriots

Rams/Bears

We've all seen the stats, as the temperature in Chicago at kickoff has been talked about more than the actual game this week.

As they say, numbers don't lie. Except when the numbers themselves are lies.

The first stat, which has been tossed around by many more people than Sam Phalan, is simply incorrect. Stafford's actual record in games under 40 degrees is 7-11 (remember he played in the NFC North for over a decade). In games where his teams were favored, he's 5-3, and in the five sub-40 degree games he's played in Soldier Field (all with the Lions), he's 4-1 and thrown for 303 YPG.

How about just games with the Rams. There's three of those, and while the Rams are 1-2 in those games, it's not because of Stafford. Matthew threw for over 300 yards in two of those three games - the two games the Rams lost, including last year's snow bowl in Philly. The lone Rams win is the game he struggled the most.

The stat of rain/snow appears to be true across multiple twitter and online sources I've found, but is useless in this case. While it'll be frigid on Sunday night, there's no precipitation in the forecast. So what the fuck good does that stat do?

I want to put this narrative to bed so bad. And I think it will be put to bed Sunday.

Tom Brady used to say about the cold weather "My mind doesn't slow down with the cold, but their bodies do".

Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career (not my MVP tho), and given his actual track record in the cold, I think he if anyone has the advantage over a subpar Chicago defense.

Chicago defied the odds last week, winning a game where they didn't cause a single turnover, the first such game all season for them. I don't think that happens again, so if Stafford can take care of the football that spells success for LA.

I think Davante Adams having a game under his belt after the injury, as well as having a lot of experience and success in Soldier Field, will be the X factor in this game. Puka is obviously the biggest threat, but look for DA to make multiple chunk plays downfield and find the end zone at least once.

The Rams struggle to defend against play action, which the Bears do as much as anyone, but Chicago's run game has fallen off down the stretch. If LA can limit the ground game early, that limits the effectiveness of play action. If they can force Chicago into standard drop backs, where they're a top 10 unit in the league in defending, that also tilts the game in their favor.

Maybe I'm just a Bears troll. Or maybe I'm sick and tired of hearing this cold weather bullshit as misleading and blatantly incorrect stats are being tossed around the media-sphere, but I think the ride ends for Chicago on Sunday.

Eventually, the Bears will stop pulling rabbits out of hats.

The Pick: Rams