AFC Championship Preview: Pats And Broncos Path To The Super Bowl

Before I start, I have a rant to get off my chest.

This Patriots hate is ridiculous. I'm tired of listening to idiots call the Patriots' path to the Super Bowl the easiest in history as they play their third straight top five defense in the playoffs, something no team has ever done. I'm sick of people backtracking on their takes after we beat the shit out of playoff teams, claiming Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud to be yesterday's trash just because we made them look like clowns, completely omitting what they said and thought before the games took place.

It's so evident that Patriots hate from the Brady era is still fresh in people's minds. They can't comprehend that while their pity franchises are still stuck in no man's land, New England is on the precipice of summiting the mountain yet again. They refuse to believe that a team that is 16-3, who had the third best regular season point differential in football at +170 (now +195), who's top four in points scored and points allowed, top eight and yards gained and yards allowed, is good.

Not because of their on-field product, but because of the name (or logo) on their helmet.

That said, I also kinda love it. It brings a tear to my eye knowing that we're right back in the glory days - the days of people going to extreme lengths to diminish the accomplishments of the greatest organization in professional sports. In what was supposed to be a house money season, one where we were just happy to be at the big boy's table again, the haters have made the people of New England bring out our red light sabers as we return to the Sith.

I'll have more on this rant if we win this weekend. So for the time being I digress. Let's get to the game:

Patriots Path: Win In Pass Block

I could've easily said "take care of the ball", "don't turn it over", or something along those lines, but I think if this happens, the turnovers, or lack of, will follow.

Drake's put the ball on the ground six times in the last two games, as I'm sure you've heard a thousand times this week as people on TV or Twitter make their fraud cries of the Patriots. Some of those are his fault, a good chunk in fact. But some are unquestionably due to poor offensive line play. He's been sacked five times in each playoff game, and hasn't had adequate time to operate. It's on him and McDaniels to adjust to that, which by the fourth quarter of each game they have, but those adjustments need to come quicker Sunday.

Denver's pass rush is as nasty as LA and Houston's, so the O line should know what's coming. If they can't keep the Broncos in front of them, and are allowing strip sacks on three step drops like they did last weekend, this game could get scary. But if they win the line of scrimmage, allow enough time for deeper routes to develop or for Drake to find some holes to scamper through, I think the turnovers fade to dust. I’m also looking at a big game for Diggs underneath if Surtain follows Boutte.

The defense will be able to cause fits to a Denver offense that's often sputtered even with their starting QB throughout the season. So as long as we don't hand them the ball on short fields, or dare I say even give them points on defense, I like our chances to stay undefeated on the road. It all starts up front.

Broncos Path: Run The Ball Effectively, Take The Ball Out Of Stiddy's Hands

The battle of the trenches is always a double edge sword; I could've just as easily said stopping Denver's run was the key for the Pats. But the Patriots do that as well as anyone (as long as Milton Williams is playing), while Denver's offense doesn't.

Denver needs to do what Seattle did last weekend, when Darnold's health was uncertain after a weird last-minute oblique injury. They scored on special teams, ran nearly double the amount they passed, doing so for over 5 YPC, and had Darnold throw just 17 times for 124 yards.

The Patriots postseason defensive dominance has in large part come from their ability to make opponents one-dimensional. The Chargers and Texans RBs combined for 61 yards on 30 carries, and we forced the entire game into Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud's hands. While I don't think many defenses would've had quite the level of success as we did once that happened, it's a lot easier to play defense when you know what the offense is going to do.

The Broncos can't afford for the run game to stall early and force Stiddy into a 40+ throw game. If they want to win this game, they need to keep the Patriots honest. They need to open up play-action for Stiddy, and use the old Joe Flacco/Ravens playbook; run on first down and stay ahead of the chains, run on second down and stay ahead of the chains, have the entire playbook open on third and short.

I like Stidham, I've followed him on Instagram ever since I thought he was going to be the heir to Tom Brady. I wish I was able to root for him, cause I weirdly always have. Maybe the nostalgic fan in me is overhyping him, but I think he can do enough to win this game if the Broncos play it right. They have a top tier offensive line which is music to a backups ears and heavy metal to mine (I hate heavy metal music), so the Pats defensive front will have their hands full much more than the last couple weeks. But if the Broncos have 23 yards rushing on 12 carries in the second quarter, and the game is put solely in Stiddy’s hands, he'll be in for a long day regardless of who's blocking for him. I for one don't think this game will be a cakewalk, but of course I think the boys will take it.

The Pick: Patriots 24 Broncos 17

We all we got. We all we need.