top of page

Wild Card Six-Pack: Breaking Down The Best Wild Card Weekend In History

  • Writer: OB1
    OB1
  • 2 days ago
  • 9 min read

I love to be hyperbolic, but for once it's not hyperbolic of me to say that this was the best weekend of playoff football that's ever taken place. I mean statistically that's true.




All that happened before 7PM EST on Sunday. Absolute cinema.


There's a lot to take away from this weekend, and I'm just catching my breath from everything enough to think back logically instead of emotionally. Let's dive in.


No. 1: Rams/Panthers


Not many saw this game coming, at least in the manner it did. If you were to tell me the Panthers would be up 4 with less than two minutes to go, I would've guessed the score was 17-13. I would've assumed the Panthers controlled the clock with the run game, got a couple turnovers and/or turnover on downs on defense, and Carolina's offense was mistake free. Kinda similar to the first game, when the Panthers ran for 164 yards, had 10+ more minutes of time of possession, and won the turnover battle 3-0.


But this was the complete opposite. Carolina's run game was held in check, they lost the turnover battle 2-1 (could call it 2-2 tie if we include the punt block), and lost the possession battle to the Rams. This was a Bryce Young game, which I was not expecting.


If you polled the city of Charlotte with the question of "Is Bryce Young a franchise QB?" you might get an even 50/50 split. And weirdly, everyone would be right.


When he's good, he's real good. But when he's bad, he's real bad. And like the Panthers record, each happens about half the time.


Saturday we got good Bryce Young. LA limited the Panthers dynamic RB duo to 55 yards on 18 carries. So in order for Carolina to produce points, it was on Bryce's shoulders. And like Jay-Z he brushed the dirt off and put up 290 total yards and 3 total TDs.


They were keeping pace with the Rams, and did so long enough to get the game-changing, upset-required blocked punt with 4 minutes left that for the first time truly felt like they were gonna pull it off.


But the second Carolina decided to play prevent defense with two and a half minutes and three timeouts in the Rams pocket, the outcome was inevitable. I don't understand why teams do this. I don't get why you play soft coverage with 70 yards to go. The Rams literally walked down the field with underneath passes as the DBs played ten yards off the line of scrimmage. They scored in two minutes of game time without using a single timeout, and none of the 71 yards they gained was difficult.


If there was 40 seconds left I'd understand it. But 2:39 and three timeouts is basically as much time as you want. So why Carolina played so soft I'll never understand, and it cost them.


I wanted Bryce to have another moment and tie the game, but his magic ran out. For all the shit I talked about not wanting to watch the Panthers play football this weekend, I'm glad they put me in my place. That was game of the weekend material, if it wasn't for the next game.


No. 2: Packers/Bears


Chicago has a new air around it this week. I've never seen the amount of Bears beanies and overall gear walking the streets as I've seen in the two days since they dethroned the Packers. There's an arrogance you feel, but weirdly, for the first time since I've lived here, it's warranted. I don't like it.


The first half of this game went exactly how I thought. The Packers were the better team in seven and a half of eight quarters in their first two matchups, and were so again in the first half. Jordan Love and the Packers' offense did whatever they wanted, scoring TDs on their first three possessions while Ben Johnson was acting like Herb Brooks in team USA's infamous practice when the Bears faced a 4th down.


Chicago was pooping on themselves while Packer faithful laid back in their seats with their hands behind their head like they knew it was coming all along.


But as I've yet to learn this year, don't count out the cardiac Bears.


How many "fuck the Packers" do you think Ben Johnson said in the halftime locker room? Based off his emotions postgame, and his comments doubling and tripling down on how much he hates the Packers since then, he must've been losing his mind. He knew how important this game, against this team, was to not only the locker room but the city as a whole. They had to win.


And they came out playing like it. The defense, who as I mentioned last week ranks at the bottom of nearly every defensive statistic except turnovers, turned the clocks back 40 years. And did so without a turnover.


The Packers first four second half possessions equated to one first down, nine total/net yards, and four punts. And the Bears needed every one, as the offense didn't score a TD until their fourth second half drive to cut the lead to five.


The Packers finally punched it in, but missed the extra point to keep the game at 11.


Bears score again. Packers miss ANOTHER kick (they also missed a 55-yarder before half), and the Bears needed just a FG to tie the game.


But they said fuck a tie and ran a gorgeous fake screen go ball down the sideline, and took the lead with just under two minutes to go. The Packers, needing a TD due to the kicking woes, fell short on a Hail Mary, and Chicago partied like there was no tomorrow.


Chicago scored three fourth quarter TDs, with all three drives going for more than 65 yards and taking less than two and a half minutes of game time. I don't know what happens to this team/offense in the fourth quarter, but it's something that needs to be studied. I keep saying it's not sustainable, yet here we are in the Divisional Round, still sustaining.


Some insane stats:

  • Bears took ZERO offensive snaps with the lead in their three matchups vs. the Packers; they're 2-1 in those games

  • Bears are 3-3 this season when down 10+ points with under five minutes; the rest of the NFL is 3-158

  • Bears have 7 comeback wins in the final 2 minutes of a game this season (NFL record)


The Bears slayed the dragon, and now can officially call themselves NFC North champions. I can't wait for Saturday.


No. 3: Bills/Jaguars


Josh Allen.


That's it. Jacksonville ran all over the Bills defense to the tune of 154 yards and 6.7 yards per carry (although they should've run more). Inversely, the Jags won the battle of the trenches, limiting the best rush offense to just 79 yards on 26 carries.


So it was on Josh, yet again, to throw on the cape. After the Bills defense got a momentum-shifting stop on fourth down deep in Jags territory, with Trevor's leg grazing the grass, the Bills went on a 92-yard TD drive, and the cape was on.


They scored on four of their final six drives, and three of four second half possessions. But the Jags kept pace, scoring on its first three second half possessions, with the final two enough to give them the lead.


So Josh did what he's done before and drove the Bills down 65 and 66 yards, respectively, on their two fourth quarter drives to twice reclaim the lead. And the defense did what it hasn't in years past with Josh at the helm and closed.


This game matched the Rams/Panthers with four 4th quarter lead changes. More points were scored in the 4th quarter than the first three combined. Both QBs took a while to get settled in, but played nearly flawless second halves. And the Bills defense made one more play than the Jags, and set up a date with Denver.


Josh was beaten to pieces in this game, yet in the biggest moments, when most injured and/or tired, he played his best. The argument that the Bills are the team to beat in this playoffs simply because of their QB is crazy but gained some validity Sunday.


You have to play perfect to beat them, because their guy always does. The Jags played well but not perfect, and that slim difference was enough for the best statistical playoff QB in the history of the league to snatch their souls.



I'll hold any Trevor critiques, although I think they're somewhat worthy, cause I'm a nice guy. But if I can ask a lasting question: is a 30.2 QBR good?


No. 4: 49ers/Eagles


I know all the focus is on the Philadelphia circus, cause negativity sells. But there's nothing that came out of yesterday's game that is new news out of Philly if you even semi-regularly checked in on the league this year.


I want to focus on San Francisco, and shine a light on the season they're having.


Many expected a bounce back year for the Niners after an uncharacteristic 6-win season that was marred with, you guessed it, injuries.


But as is tradition with this team, the injury bug found them once again this year.


  • Week 1 - Brock Purdy (missed 8 games)

  • Week 1 - George Kittle (missed 4 games)

  • Week 3 - Nick Bosa (out for the year)

  • Week 4 - Ricky Pearsall (missed 6 games)

  • Week 6 - Fred Warner (out for the year)

  • Week 14 (Ricky Pearsall, again, missed 3 of last 5 games)

  • Week 16 - George Kittle (again, missed 2 games)

  • Wild Card - George Kittle (again again, out for the year)

  • Undisclosed - Brandon Aiyuk (didn't play all season)


In case you don't follow the 49ers closely, that's half the season without their QB1, WR1 and TE1, and nearly the entire season without their WR2, best pass rusher and mike LB. That's six starters, 5 of which are pro bowlers. And they went 12-5 (now 13-5).


I mean they played for the NFC one seed in week 18. It's crazy what they've been able to do.


Philadelphia took CMC and the run game out, which was my biggest fear for SF going into the game. Kittle got injured early and never returned.


So Kyle Shanahan went deep in his bag and pulled out all the stops. Kyle Juszczyk stepped into the TE1 role and became a prolific pass catcher (watch his catches, most weren't easy). Demarcus Robinson became a WR1, and Jauan Jennings became QB1 on a perfectly called trick play touchdown.


Fun stat: Jauan Jennings had more completed passes over 15 air yards (1) than Jalen Hurts (0-5). Lol


As the Niners often do, they outexecute when they're undermanned. It doesn't matter who's playing (as long as CMC is on the field), this team finds ways to stay in games and more often than not win them. And that's credit to the coaches.


It's a shame Kittle won't be able to play in Seattle next week. But no matter who's suiting up, this team will have a chance.


No. 5: Chargers/Patriots


I talked through my immediate thoughts already. But now that I've had more time to digest.... actually I think I nailed it. But I did say I'd bring some stats.


The Patriots' defensive masterclass included blitzing Herbert on 46% of snaps, nearly double their regular season rate. The Pats aren't a great four-man rush team, so against this putrid offensive line they decided to bring the heat, and the Bolts were forced to leave the kitchen.


Rob Spillane said in his postgame presser that Chargers players told him they had no clue what the Pats defense was running all night. Incredible.


The secondary was a big reason for the pass rush success. Gonzo allowed zero catches on five targets, often times being closer to catching the ball himself than the receiver he was covering (hopefully he can play next week). Marcus Jones, who was torched by Ladd McConkey last season, held him to one catch on 20 routes.


The 30th ranked red zone defense nutted up and had two massive goal-to-go stops in the first half. Then one of the best defenses in not letting teams enter the red zone took over, and the Chargers never got close the rest of the game.


And the best rush defense through 10 games this season (aka when Milton Williams plays) completely shut down LA, with 66% of the Chargers rush yards coming from Justin Herbert scrambles.


It was the best defensive performance of the season, and what a time for it. On a day where the offense moved the ball but couldn't score, the defense rendered the offense's shortcomings useless. That's complimentary football at it's highest level.


Insult stat: The Patriots have never lost to the Chargers in the postseason (4-0)


No. 6: Texans/Steelers


An incredible weekend was capped off with a stinker, but was anyone really surprised?


The Steelers on Monday were the same Steelers we saw all year; an incompetent offense that relied on defensive turnovers to produce points.


And it was gearing up for one of those vintage Steeler wins well into the third quarter, when Pittsburgh picked off CJ for their third turnover of the game.


But Pittsburgh was stuck in mud offensively all night. They mustered a grand total of 175 yards on 11 offensive drives, with 88 coming on the first two (so 87 on their last 9). That's comically bad.


CJ tried his best to keep them in the game, but the Texans defense was having none of it. They lit up the Steelers O line primarily with four man rushes. They held the Steelers to 2-14 on third down, and scored more than double the amount of points they allowed (14-6).


It was a sad way to possibly end the great career of Aaron Rodgers, but my gut tells me he gives it another go. He'll fade into the darkness for a while and leave us hanging, but the way he talks about Pittsburgh, about Mike T, and how much fun he's had this year despite nonstop screaming at his WRs mid-game makes me think he has enough juice in him for another run.


As for Houston, I'm scared shitless to play them on Sunday. This is the most ferocious defense in the league, with every hit audibly clear through the TV screen. They can pressure you without blitzing, their LBs are fast, and their secondary is aggressive.


CJ needs to get his act together if they want to beat any team besides Pittsburgh, though. I personally hope he doesn't.

Comments


bottom of page