LEAKED: The NFL Playoff Bracket, How The Postseason Will Unfold

OB1
6 days ago
10 min read

You know the feeling right before a vacation? That gitty feeling you get, over-researching activities and restaurants, over-booking excursions and checking the weather every other hour in hopes the 60% chance of rain forecast magically changes to a sun emoji? Then trying your best to table that nervous excitement, because you still have a few weeks to wait and want to make sure you save some for closer to the trip?

In NFL playoff terms, days equate to weeks. There's only six days between the final regular season and first playoff game, but days really drag. The anticipation is so forceful and possibilities so endless (especially this year) that you've played out every possible scenario in your head, loved and hated each, changed your opinion a dozen times, then finally convinced yourself you've figured it out. And it's only Wednesday.

This is the best time of the year, and the best tournament in sports. And while I believe that every year, this year feels different. I can't remember a year where there was this much uncertainty, this much discrepancy in people's opinions. I don't recall a year with more teams having a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl (I have it as nine). Which is why I'm so amped for Saturday. I can't wait for the inevitable upset, the game-changing turnover, and jaw-dropping finishes that the playoffs provide every year.

Enough with the buildup. Here's what I believe will happen this weekend, and the weeks to follow.

Rams/Panthers

I personally like divisions and oppose those who think the NFL should rid them, but I do think there could be one stipulation added; you need to be over .500 to make the playoffs, or at least host in the playoffs.

The Panthers turnaround is great, good for them. But no one wants to see a team who hasn't won two straight games since Indigenous People's Day, a team with a -69 point differential, an offense ranked 26th or worse in passing offense, total offense, and points scored, play in yet host a playoff game.

I've said it for weeks they're one of the weirdest teams I've ever seen. They beat the Rams in Charlotte just a month ago, in a monsoon which played right into Carolina's hands with some freaky shit going on.

It would be fun to predict an upset on the biggest road favorite in the history of the playoffs. I mean there is rain in the forecast again (eyes emoji).

But I can't and won't, out of principle. I don't think the Rams are the world beaters that many assume they are; I think they're flawed on defense and have showed it down the stretch. But their two surprise losses post-Thanksgiving have come by a combined 6 points, with Stafford throwing a pick-six in each contest. Assuming that alone doesn't happen Saturday, they should be good. 10 points feels like a lot though.

The Pick: Rams

Packers/Bears

Chicago is already on fire; tickets to this game are nearly double the get-ins at most other games this weekend. But there's an anxiousness that fills the city, and it's not just because of the long, well-known history of these two teams.

It's what's happened this season. Green Bay beat Chicago in Wisconsin, and were a botched onside kick from beating them in Soldier Field two weeks later, even without Micah Parsons. 99 times out of 100 Chicago loses that game.

Da Bears lead the league in takeaways (33, the most) and giveaways (10, the least), and despite that have just four wins on the year by more than one score. Their defense is among the league worst in passing yards (22nd), rushing yards (27th), and total yards allowed (29th).

The Packers turn the ball over as little as anyone except da Bears (14 total on the season, 3rd best) which doesn't bode well for this matchup. Jordan Love coming off a concussion and three weeks on the sideline may subject him to a higher turnover probability, but even if he does, like he did in the first matchup, doesn't mean da Bears win. Chicago has forced multiple turnovers in nine of its 11 wins this year, while doing so in zero of its six losses.

I can see a mistake from Jordan Love, but I don't know if I see two. And as much as I'd like to see another onside kick recovery, I don't see that either.

It sucks the Bears are playing the Packers, cause it's the one team that can make this incredible season still taste sour. I might even feel bad for them if they lose.

The Pick: Packers

Bills/Jaguars

This might be the game of the weekend, I don't care what the scheduler's think.

Josh Allen speaks for himself. But he also speaks for the Bills as a whole, since he, along with James Cook, who's still underrated despite winning the rushing title this year, are the only reason the Bills are in this spot to begin with.

But this Bills team is flawed. Their weapons, or lack there of, aren't that much different than in years past, but are always worth mentioning. It's amazing they haven't been able to get a WR1 to play with the best QB in football since Diggs left (sorry, the Keon Coleman experiment appears to be a fail).

But defensively is where their holes really pop, and is what scares the shit out of me against this Jags team. They're pass defense is best in the league, but will be without rookie Maxwell Hairston again on Sunday. If they can contain a red hot Trevor Lawrence through the air they'll have a shot, but this game will be determined in the trenches.

It's well known the Bills can't stop the run; almost as well known as how dynamic of a run scheme Liam Coen and his teams present. Coen should be licking his chops game planning against this run defense, and I expect both Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence to have a solid day on the ground.

On the flip side, it's good against good, with Buffalo's number one ranked rushing offense facing the Jag's number one ranked rush defense. I buried the lead, but this matchup is where this game is won or lost.

If Jax can slow Buffalo's rushing attack and get Josh Allen to enter Superman mode, their turnover-happy defense, who rank second in the league in turnovers, can capitalize on a couple of patented Josh Allen high-risk decisions. If not, and the Bills set the tone with the run game, Josh Allen can toy with a not-so-great Jags secondary, utilize play-action, and put up godly numbers we're accustomed to seeing.

My guess is Josh has several designed runs called early in an attempt to keep the Jags defense on their toes. My concern is that the Jags in return run circles around the Bills defense for 200+ on the ground.

In what could be a 38-35 type game, I envision another heartbreaking loss for the Bills.

The Pick: Jaguars

49ers/Eagles

I fear the writing is on the wall in this game.

For one, the 49ers were fully exposed in their game against Seattle last Saturday. To little fault of their own, their defense is so injured that they can't stop a cold. I get that Seattle only scored 13 points, but if you watched the game you saw they did whatever they wanted offensively for basically the whole game. They also gave up 38 points to the Bears, 27 to old man Rivers, and 24 to the Titans the three weeks prior (Titans third highest scoring game all season).

SF's high-flying offense was held at bay (no pun intended) vs. Seattle as well, with the Hawks proving that limiting CMC's effectiveness can take them out of whack.

Second, this feels like a "follow the instructions" game for those who follow The Gambling Show (which went 29-21-4 this year). This line started at 3.5, with the majority of bets backing the Niners, and is up to 5.5 on some books. That's spooky. Feels like they're telling you something.

This is just a terrible matchup for the Niners. Philly is very similar to Seattle; a gnarly defense and an average offense loaded with weapons that can turn prolific at a moment's notice. SF loves to get into shootouts, while Philly is allergic to such games. And in those low scoring slugfests, the Birds eat, winning multiple games against playoff teams with top ten offenses while scoring less than 17 points.

The magic number for the Niners is 21; since week 5, excluding the week 18 backup game, Philly is 6-0 when allowing less than 21 points, and 1-5 when they've allowed more.

It's possible San Francisco can hit that number, but I don't see it. What I do see is the Eagles offense, Saquon in particular, turning the clocks back a year against this banged up SF defense that can't stop the run, controlling the line of scrimmage, and initiating a slow death.

The Pick: Eagles

Chargers/Patriots

Oh baby here we go. The game of the week (idk how this is the Sunday night game tbh).

To answer your question, yes I'm scared. Of course I'm scared. Isn't everyone in the playoffs?

Especially if it's the first time you've been in the tournament in four years, with the most recent memory being on the wrong side of a perfect game in Buffalo. When the last home playoff game, which was six years ago, was Brady's final snap as a Patriot when he threw a walk off pick six. Even more so when you have a roster with extremely limited collective playoff experience, going up against one of the best coaches in the league, with one of the best defenses in the league, and a QB who's had arguably his best season as a pro considering he spent the year running for his life behind the worst offensive line in football all season.

So yeah, I'm a little scared. But I'm also hopeful.

Milton Williams returned last week and the holes that were littered across our run defense in his absence were instantly fixed, Phil Swift style.

The Patriots lack of rush defense has been the talk of the town the last couple months, with the Pats ranking 31st in yards before contact and dead last in defensive rushing success rate from weeks 12-17. They allowed 110+ rush yards in all those games, and 160+ in three of five.

Through the first 10 weeks, the Pats had allowed just one 50+ yard rusher, and held opponents under 75 yards on the ground for seven of those 10 games.

Ironically, Milton Williams was injured early in their week 11 game vs. the Jets and sat out weeks 12-17. I kid, that's not ironic at all.

Milton has been a beast this year, and having him back in the lineup is massive for our chances to make a run. So is Rob Spillane, who's also expected back to be the voice of reason in defensive huddles (also missed weeks 14-18).

If the Patriots can revert back to their early season ways of stopping the run, and we put the game in Justin Herbert's hands, forcing LA into a pass-happy gameplan, with that offensive line, I like our chances. We don't have the best pass rush in the world, but it's certainly better than their offensive line. I think we win this matchup.

The way this game is lost in my opinion is if we lose the other side of the matchup. LA's defense is very good, and especially good against the deep ball. This will be strength on strength, as both sides are top two in the league at executing and covering these plays.

Can we exercise enough patience to keep the ball in front of us, and not force anything downfield if it's not there? Can we have some success running the ball against a top ten rush defense that could help open up downfield options? Can we hit on the one or two opportunities that may present itself for chunk plays?

If we answer those questions, along with not turning the ball over, as yeses, then we win the game. But that defense scares me.

Drake seems like a guy that isn't phased by the moment, but at the same time you don't know what you're made of until you're thrown into the fire, and this is without a doubt the biggest game of his life, on the biggest stage.

I'm excited to be excited. I'm excited to be nervous. I'm excited to live another day and come out on top.

The Pick: Patriots

Texans/Steelers

How incredible was that Sunday night game? Absolutely in the discussion for game of the year. Steelers/Ravens truly never disappoints.

But the Steelers offense often disappoints, and it's hard for me to imagine they don't disappoint again on Monday night against the best (debatably with Seattle) defense in football.

Pittsburgh has the most boring offense ever. It's run inside, run outside, throw on third down. Rinse and repeat, with a screen pass mixed in here and there. They don't run the ball well (26th in the league), don't pass the ball well (22nd), and don't possess the ball much (29th).

Houston on the other hand ranks 1st in total defense, 6th in passing defense, 4th in rush defense, and 2nd in point allowed, while also having the 3rd most turnovers and 2nd best turnover margin. However you slice it, this is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh.

I don't care that DK's back in the lineup; it's not like the Steelers offense was anything to write home about the first 16 weeks. I don't see how Pittsburgh will be able to run on this Houston team, and if that's true an immobile Aaron Rodgers will have to have 2014 MVP precision to have any sort of success.

The Steelers hope, as it usually is, lies with the defense and its ability to turn CJ Stroud into a pumpkin. Houston has given up more than 21 points just twice in its 9-game win streak, and despite that, only once have they won by more than one score.

The offense can be had, and with a healthy pass rush, in a night game in Pittsburgh, where weird shit tends to happen, I wouldn't put it past this Steelers defense to score more points than the offense, cause a few turnovers and have this game be tight in the fourth.

If the defense outscores the offense, though, that won't be enough.

The Pick: Texans

Divisional Round Predictions

I won't go into any level of depth since half of the above predictions will likely be wrong and my views will likely change next week, but my potentially biased crystal ball shows the playoffs panning out as follows:

Broncos beat Houston (similar defense, better offense and home field for Denver)
Patriots beat Jaguars (we stop the run and Trevor makes a mistake)