The Gambling Show: Week 18

Season Record: 27-20-4

Well, well, well. We've come to the final week, fresh off a 3-0 sweep of week 17, and gave ourselves a chance. 60% seemed like a far cry just days ago, but is now just one more 3-0 week from becoming reality.

The conversation surrounding this week (which drives me nuts) is typically about one team caring and other teams not. Fans thinking that just because their team is eliminated from the postseason, the players on those teams that make millions of dollars to play a game where the average career is under 3 years won't try and will purposefully diminish their future value to prospective employers. That just because they, who follow from a distance and truly have nothing at stake, don't care, neither will the players. Or some people insane enough to think any single player on any single team gives a shit about a draft pick for a team they may not even play for next year (even if they're under contract).

That's my mini rant on week 18. Back to the picks.

With all that said, this is a really difficult week to bet. While my personal opinion is that all players in the NFL care enough about football to want to end their season with a win, you don't know who will be playing - or for how long. Maybe Houston starts out hot but sees the Jags up 21 at half and rests the starters in the second half. The line right now is assuming they'll play the whole game, so you could get screwed. Same could be said for the Patriots, or the Bears, or a handful of other possible scenarios. It provides more guesses to an already guessing game.

There's a few games that matter for both teams, and will be played like a regular week. And that's where we start.

Gold Medal Game: Seahawks -2

I promise this is not just a heart pick. But if I may indulge, I'd like to remind you who I chose to win the vaunted NFC West prior to the season, when sports books had them fourth, even behind the Cardinals, to accomplish such a feat.

That's right. My "boldest take of the year" is on the precipice of coming true. So naturally I'm rooting for it.

But here's why you should like them this weekend too, and it has nothing to do with my incredible/genius prediction that no one else had.

San Francisco, specifically Brock Purdy, is red hot right now. He's accounted for 13 TDs in his last three games, throwing for 295+ yards and scoring 37+ points in each of them, and hasn't lost a game since he returned from injury in mid-November.

But those numbers have come against the Titans, Colts, and Bears - three teams that rank in the 20s in terms of total and passing defense. Those defenses aren't in the same weight class as Seattle.

Seattle's defense is nasty, and has the ability to stop or at least limit the run. Similar to why we picked them last week against the Panthers, if they can limit CMC to a pedestrian game, I like their chances.

I also think Darnold got the monkey off his back with that comeback win against the Rams a couple weeks ago, and for the first time maybe ever will come into this game with confidence instead of hesitation. San Francisco can't rush the passer (dead last in sacks and pressure rates), and Darnold has consistently shown he can tear apart a defense if given the time.

The Niners will give up points, so they'll need to win this game in a similar style to the Bears game on Sunday night. I don't see that happening against Seattle. The Seahawks are a better all around football team, so I'll take the better team in a tight spread.

Silver Medal: Bucs -2.5

How can you trust the Bucs after two months of proving week in and week out they're bad?

Fair question, but the answer is that I still trust the players on the team more so than the ones on Carolina.

Do you trust Bryce Young in a big game? The 27th ranked offense in football? How about a receiving corps that has five cumulative years of NFL experience?

By simple process of elimination I trust Baker Mayfield, and his all-pro cast of offensive weapons, including first ballot HOFer Mike Evans, to figure their shit out for one game. Just one. The Bucs are the healthiest they've been on offense all year down the stretch yet still can't get it together.

The Bucs blitz a ton, and while slightly improved from his early career struggles, I think Bryce Young makes a mistake or two in the face of pressure, in the biggest game he's played in since the Natty with the Crimson Tide.

I also like the fact that Tampa's favored, and despite the majority of people flocking to the Panthers as dogs, the line is holding steady if not teetering to -3. I like getting it under the FG.

Wouldn't it be fitting if this Panthers team, who doesn't belong in the playoffs just as equally as this Bucs squad, sneaks in on Sunday with an Atlanta win despite losing this game? That would be so NFC South.

Bronze Medal: Saints +3.5

I'd have to look back but I think New Orleans may be our most bet team this year. And likely one of our more successful teams too.

This one just comes down to overinflation, partly because of what we saw Monday night and partly because of the potential implications this game may have based on the outcome of our silver medal game.

The Falcons aren't good. Remember when they beat the Bills on Monday night football then proceeded to lose five straight games? I do.

It's easy to get up for a Monday night game at home against a Super Bowl contender, especially when you're wearing your throwback unis that are among the best in football. But don't let that one game make you forget who they are.

The other part of this is that if Tampa wins Saturday, this game is the de facto NFC South championship game. If Tampa were to win, the Bucs would get in if the Saints win, but Carolina would get in with a Falcons win. So I think this line is a bit inflated because of it.

I'm scared that New Orleans won't be able to replace Chris Olave's production, who has been going crazy for the last two weeks (18 catches for 267 yards).

But there's a good chance that both Demario Douglas and Cameron Jordan are playing their last game as Saints, and against their biggest rivals, it would be fitting for them to go out with a win.

Even if they don't, it feels like a FG game. I just don’t believe in Atlanta. So we'll take the points.