Week 6 Six-Pack: Three Overhyped and Underhyped Teams After Six Weeks

There's plenty of definitives at this point in the season. The Titans, fresh off the first coach firing of the year, right before they welcome back the coach they fired for the guy they just fired, stink. The Lions, despite a loss in KC Sunday night, are still the cream of the crop in the NFC and trending to another one seed. And Joe Burrow, who's been on the sidelines for another extended period of time, is the lifeblood of the Cincinnati Bengals, who look hopeless without him no matter who's behind center.

Those are knowns. But six weeks of play isn't enough to make blanket certainties across the league. The season is still young, and there are many players and teams we're still forecasting without any sort of soft-coded formula. So let's talk about six teams, that are either being projected too high or low, based on my proprietary formula of determining how good or bad teams are.

No. 1 Over-Hyped: Pittsburgh Steelers

This one is obvious to me. The Steelers would all but wrap up the AFC North with a win on Thursday night against Cincinnati. They currently are 4-1 and 2.5 games up on those Bengals, who are the only other team in the division with multiple wins on the year.

But just because you lead the worst division in football (which is crazy to say about the AFC North) by a handful games, after just a handful of games, doesn't make you great. In fact, nothing about Pittsburgh screams great.

They rank 25th or worse in total offense, passing offense, rushing offense, total defense, and passing defense. And that's on a per game basis - don't worry I made sure this was "they've already had their bye" proof. That's not just not great, that's bad, and frankly crazy for a 4-1 team.

They've gotten there by a familiar method for Steelers teams - winning the turnover battle. So far this year, only Chicago and Jacksonville have caused more turnovers than Pittsburgh, and only the Chiefs and Bucs have committed less. They've yet to lose the turnover battle in any game, and have the second most sacks in the league despite playing just five games to most teams' six.

So if this team is familiar to past teams, teams that have relied on defense and turnovers en route to annual postseason berths, why should we view this team any different? The answer is we shouldn't.

Their best win of the year is against the Patriots whose hands were slippier than a pre-teen halfway up Nickelodeon's slime mountain that day in Foxborough. And they still barely won. To their credit, they win sloppy, close games better than just about anyone in the league. But to their detriment, that only lasts so long. So while I'd expect the Steelers to win the division at this point by default and at least get a home playoff game, I don't expect this year's Steelers story to be any different than ones of recent memory. So I won't be getting excited.

No. 1 Under-Hyped: Seattle Seahawks

If you remember, I was on the Seahawks bandwagon before the season started. Last year was enough for me to believe in Sam Darnold. It was enough for me to believe that JSN was a true WR1, and also enough for me to believe in Mike MacDonald and what he's building there.

They're two last-minute turnovers away from being the only unbeaten team in the league, and are tied atop a loaded division having played one of the harder schedules in the league so far. They have a top ten offense in yards and points per game, they're the best road team in the league, and if not for anything else are fun to watch.

If you like air-raid football, this is the team for you. Darnold and the offense have the 3rd most passing yards in the NFL, but the running game is 24th. The rushing defense is 2nd best in the league, while the passing defense is 24th. So they pass a lot, and they get passed on a lot.

That passing defense is obviously a concern, but they're still getting healthy in the back end, having had three of their five starting secondary players miss time so far this year. So is the running game, but I've seen enough from Kenneth Walker over the years to think they'll get that part of the offense fixed.

I'm always a little biased to the teams I predict will be good, as is anyone. And this was my boldest prediction of the year, that they'd win the NFC West, so I want some respect put on them. Not that they're being dogged across the internet or TV airwaves, but they just aren't being properly talked about, or talked about at all. And that's wrong.

They need to figure out how to win some home games though.

No. 2 Over-Hyped: Denver Broncos

The Broncos are 4-2 and tied for the AFC West lead. They were the surprise team of last season (to everyone but me) and seem to be back on track for another postseason run.

But I'm not buying what this team is selling at this point, and it's 100% because of their offense. The defense is elite, and even though they haven't played the toughest offensive opponents, have stifled most of them, highlighted by allowing just 82 yards to the Jets in London. A defense that has 30 sacks through six games, including 9 on Sunday which attributed to the sub-100 yard output.

What causes me to pause is the offense. On Sunday, despite the historic defensive numbers, Denver was about 10 yards away from potentially losing the game. With the exception of one field goal drive in the third quarter, the offense mustered up five total yards of offense on as many drives in the second half. They had just three of eight drives after they scored the TD to end the first quarter that produced a first down, and scored just 13 points against a Jets defense who'd allowed 27 or more in every game this season coming in.

I want to believe in Bo, and I want to believe in this team. I see the glimpses of how fun they can be, and they have half of the team already playing at a Super Bowl level. But I need to see more from the offense before I even lock them in as a playoff team let alone a dark horse in the conference. You can't continue to have offensive performances like the Jets and Titans, or the first half in Philly, and expect to continue winning.

Maybe this team just plays down to their competition. They were a leverage penalty against the Colts away from beating them in Indy, a last second FG against the Chargers from OT, and beat Philly in Philly (which doesn't look quite as impressive a week later). They can still hang with the best, but they also barely hang with the worst. So right here, right now, I'm holding out on getting on the Broncos back. But I'll keep the saddle close in case things change.

No. 2 Under-Hyped: Jacksonville Jaguars

If you read my gambling show blog (which went 3-0 this week and moved to 11-6-1 on the year) you know I said the Jags were overhyped just last week, which is true. But narratives shift fast in the NFL, and how many times over the last two days has someone said that the Jags have fallen back to life, we knew it was a fluke, etc. etc.

One loss is sometimes all it takes for people to hop off a spaceship heading for the moon. But even though I was right about fading them this week, a big reason I did so is because of their opponent, who I already touched on.

The Jags have an impressive resume, and are still a freak game from Jake Browning, who apparently left every last bit of his NFL contributions on the field against Jacksonville in week 2, away from being 5-1 despite the loss on Sunday. They handily beat Carolina week 1, which looks better and better with each win the Panthers notch. They beat a Houston team desperate for a win after starting 0-2 and poses one of the best defenses in the league, then beat a banged up Niners team who's giving teams fits regardless of what string of players are on the field, and outdueled Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs in a shootout.

They're dominating the turnover battle, something they haven't done with Trevor behind center. They've caused the most turnovers in football so far (14) and lead the league in differential at +8. If Trevor can rid the turnovers, the stupid interceptions that he's accustomed to, and they can continue to improve on the run game which Liam Coen is known for to keep the offense balanced, I don't think they're going anywhere.

What separates them and Pittsburgh, two teams that are winning in large part to turnovers, is expectation. We've seen this form of Pittsburgh time and time again, and we've seen the results. What we're seeing in Jacksonville is new. The Jags have already won multiple games this year they've habitually lost. They've already caused five more turnovers than all of last season, and have a positive turnover differential for just the second time since 2017. People expect the Jaguars to fall off, which is not the case in Pittsburgh, especially with Rodgers behind center. And this blog is about hype, about expectations, so while many will expect the Jags to fall back to baseline, I'm not letting one loss to the best road team in football change my opinion, which has already been changed since the start of the year.

No. 3 Over-Hyped: Baltimore Ravens

Ok rant time. I know the Ravens are 1-5 and a complete laughing stock right now. I know a 1-5 team shouldn't even be a candidate for being over-hyped. I know that. But does anyone else?

The amount of times I've heard people talk about the Ravens winning the AFC North in the last week is mind blowing. I know you've heard it too.

"Lamar will be back after the bye". "The division isn’t any good so I can see them making a run". Blah blah blah. This shit needs to stop.

Are people forgetting this team was 1-4 WITH Lamar? That Lamar and the offense was not the reason they were losing games? Do they know that the Baltimore defense, even after their first good showing against the Rams on Sunday, are still allowing the most points per game in the NFL (32.3), the 4th most total yards, 4th most passing yards, and 6th most rushing yards per game?

I know they've been beaten up with injuries, but this unit is awful. You'd think as they get healthier they'll improve, but can we at least wait until we see something before we talk about them as AFC North contenders? Can they win, idk, two games first?

I know the Steelers are also on my over-hyped list, but they're up four games on Baltimore. The fact that Baltimore is still +150ish to win the division baffles me, but what's worse is the constant takes of people trying to be the first (but actually 100th) to remind you to not count out the Ravens. Realistically they can lose just two more games all season to make the playoffs, maybe three depending how things shape out.

Is it possible, sure. But likely, no. So shut up about this embarrassment of a team until they show some sort of life.

Rant over.

No. 3 Under-Hyped: Houston Texans

If I had to pick my dark horse in the AFC right now this is my pick. They've won two in a row to get to 2-3, but are not being considered as threats in the AFC South given the separation of the Colts and Jags ahead of them.

But this team is scary. I still believe in CJ Stroud, which may very well be my biggest flaw as an NFL fan. But I still have the vertical passing game etched in my mind, and think he's a guy I want leading my team even if the results so far this year haven't been what we've expected. They need to be better offensively, and my thought is running up the score on the Ravens two weeks ago was their version of watching the ball go through the hoop when you can't hit the water from beyond the arc if the hoop was an ocean. Seeing that first one go in opens your eyes and brings the confidence back.

The offense is all that's holding this team back, cause the defense is elite. They've allowed 20 points just once this year, with opponents averaging just 12.2 points per game, an NFL best by 3.6 points. They rank 5th in passing, 7th in rushing, and 4th in total defense to pair with their top spot in points. And they're doing it without turning the ball over much (six for the season) and without a ton of sacks (12). Imagine if that changes.

If the Texans were 4-2 and playing the way they're playing, they'd likely find themselves on the other side of the spectrum along with the Broncos, who are in a similar spot. But at 2-3 they're being extremely overlooked. I think it's completely possible for them to climb back and fight for this division. I think the offense and CJ Stroud are more than capable of righting the ship and scoring 20 points a game, which is all they need to do right now. And I have no reason to believe the defense won't continue playing at an elite level for the foreseeable future. If they beat Seattle on Monday night, look out for this team. Just know I warned you.