Week 12 Six-Pack: Six Bold-ish Predictions For The Post-Thanksgiving Season

As the great Bill Belichick, before his public fawning over a grad-student who's taken control of his life, used to say, "football season starts after Thanksgiving".

If that's the case, the preseason has been incredible. I feel like we've seen it all. The Chiefs are on the brink of collapse. The Eagles are a never ending circus despite being 8-3. The Colts and Bears are 8-3 but floating on air. And the New England Patriots have reclaimed their rightful spot atop the AFC conference.

But that's all fun and games until December comes. Until there's turducken being eaten by the victor's of Thanksgiving day/night, it's mere exhibition. So as we did prior to the season, let's make six "real season" predictions that are sure to play out over the next couple months.

No. 1: The Patriots Will Be The One Seed In The AFC

Naturally you’ll think this is a bias take. I get it. Saying my favorite and the rest of the world’s least favorite team, the one I love reminding people I’m a fan of and obnoxiously rubbing it in their faces, to finish as the one seed isn’t coming as a surprise to you.

But I'm not saying this because I think the Patriots are world beaters. I mean, they have won nine in a row and are the only team with double digit wins (no apologies for schedule and having a late bye), but I don’t think they’d be the favorites to win the conference among media outlets or sportsbooks even if they do get the lone AFC bye.

This is about their competition. First off, Buffalo seems lost at sea. They’ve reverted back to the early Josh Allen years where he either puts his cape on and wins a game himself or dies trying. They have a tougher schedule than us, have to play our rematch in Foxborough, and aren’t at this moment a better team than the Patriots, which I can admit hasn’t been the case until recently. So I think we'll take the division.

I think the Colts are teetering (teaser). The Broncos should be the favorite to get the AFC bye, but their last four games are far more demanding, and I think they lose a couple of them.

So by process of elimination, that leaves New England. We can go 3-2 down the stretch (which I'd say is extremely likely) and get it. I’m nervous about the injuries piling up, but that’s the nature of the NFL. Every team has/will have injuries, and in December it comes down to who can overcome them better than others. I wouldn’t call us a deep roster, so that’s the concern.

No. 2: The Jaguars Will Miss The Playoffs

I’m not sure this take is all that hot, but I’m going to repeat what I’ve said many times on this blog; the problem is with the quarterback.

The fact they won that game Sunday in Arizona is a miracle, and against any semi-competent team that’s a loss. Trevor refuses to quit turning the ball over, and him making a mental mistake is the only thing more certain than him starring in another hair product commercial this offseason.

Why this is at least a warm take is the Jags are just one game back of Indianapolis in the division, and still play them twice. And those Colts games are sandwiched between the Titans twice and the Jets. There’s a very conceivable path to 11 wins for this team.

But no amount of prosperity is conceivable when your quarterback is as unpredictable as the crypto market. The teams behind them are playing better, they don’t have a ton of room for error, and again, in case you missed it, I don’t trust them.

I’ve wanted to trust Trevor. I’ve always doubted, but also allowed for the possibility to be swayed. And all he’s done is the opposite. So I think this season will end in heartbreak.

No. 3: The Chargers Will Also Miss The Playoffs

Justin Herbert has played incredible this year. I’ve long been a hater, and while I still don’t put him in or too close to the top 5 QB conversation, I can give flowers when they’re due, and this year I've been a busy florist.

But I’d be scared shitless if I was a Chargers fan that Herby won't make it out of the regular season alive. There was possibly no better time for a bye than after that Jaguars game where Herbert was knocked down more than Keri Hilson, but that game was a glimpse into the future, based on evidence of the past, for the rest of the Chargers season.

Losing a tackle is tough. Losing a pro-bowl/all-pro tackle, which Joe Alt is, is tougher. But losing your other tackle on top of that all-pro tackle is nearly impossible to overcome. Oh and they're on their third string RB. It's possible the last two weeks have been spent trial and erroring different O line combinations until they found one that works, but I’m not banking on it.

Herby’s been able to play extremely well behind a mess of a line for most of the season, but I question if he can do it enough to go 4-2 or even 3-3 down the stretch, which is what they’ll need to do to make the playoffs. They have Philadelphia, Kansas City, Houston, and Denver still on the schedule. My gut says they don't win any of those games, which will put them on the wrong side of the playoff hunt.

No. 4: If Houston Beats Indianapolis On Sunday, They Will Win The AFC South

This one’s hot. But hear me out.

I’ve been high on Houston for weeks. I bet on them four weeks in a row, I said over a month ago they were the AFC dark horse being slept on, that the defense was a monster the rest of the NFL did not want to awaken, etc. etc. I’m not hear to pump my tires. My old blogs typically do that.

But this defense and team has awaken, and they’re playing confident football. Following a near 20-point comeback against Jacksonville to save their season, Houston squeaked out a divisional road game in Tennessee, then bullied the Bills on Thursday to the tune of eight sacks and one offensive TD. The same offense that put up 44 the week before was held out of the endzone after their opening drive.

Davis Mills has played well enough to warrant a spot on an NFL roster for the next decade, and has led this team to three straight wins. They currently sit at 6-5, just one game out of a wild card spot and two of the division, with two matchups against Indy upcoming.

If they beat the Colts this weekend, they’ll be within a game, with the tie break, and trending in the complete opposite direction as that Indy squad. With CJ Stroud’s return looming, this team could ride the momentum and keep piling wins, while Indy will start looking internally as the questions of “do we really belong” start to rise. That's before they play Houston again, Jacksonville twice, Seattle and San Francisco.

No. 5: The NFC West, Not North, Will Have Three Teams In The Postseason

The Rams are the best team in football bar none. No arguments to be made.

I’d then argue based on the recent matchup in LA, and how they’ve kicked the shit out of non-divisional opponents all season, that Seattle is second best. I knew coming into the year they’d be good, but I didn’t realize how good. The defense is better than the high expectations I had for them, and while I knew JSN was ready for the WR1 spot, I didn’t realize that meant WR1 of the entire league.

San Francisco has taken advantage of a last place schedule this year, but has looked pretty good doing it despite the laundry list of injuries that seemingly plague them every year. “Next man up” is engrained in this team’s DNA, and they’re 8-4 and getting healthier. They have just one game left against the two aforementioned top dogs in the division, and I see at least three more wins in their horizon. I think that will be enough.

So who gets left behind? There’s only room for two among the group of Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit (you could even include Dallas in that, especially if they beat KC on Thanksgiving).

The weekday games this week will tell a lot. Whoever wins the Packers/Lions game has a massive advantage in the division, and if Detroit loses they'll have a mountain to climb to get into the playoffs. Chicago, who I'm still not totally convinced on, plays Philadelphia on Friday in what will be their first real test in months. A team that is 8-3 with a negative point differential is the definition of fool's gold, and I worry the line Vegas made is hinting at how that game will go.

All three of these teams have gauntlets of schedules, partly because of the meetings against each other. And all three of them are flawed. So I'll go with my gut; Detroit wins on Thanksgiving and takes the division, while the Packers sweep the Bears as they always do and use their tie to their benefit to snag the last spot in the playoffs. Sorry Chicago.

No. 6: Matthew Stafford Runs Away With The MVP

Even before the 3 TD primetime game against the Bucs on Sunday this was a foregone conclusion.

The MVP is a) a performance award, b) a QB award and c) a narrative award. Right now, Stafford is playing quarterback better than anyone else. So there's a and b. But why there's no doubt in my mind he'll win is c.

This isn't exclusive to the NFL. Often times the MVP is won by someone who sports writers and media members feel "deserves" it. It can act as a lifetime achievement award in some cases, and most definitely used as a tiebreaker when there's no unanimous/obvious selection.

Stafford is one of the great stories in the league this year. Prior to the season, reports of him struggling to walk because of his back pain were circling, and doubts of whether he would start the year, or more so finish, were running rampant. He's long been an underappreciated player after being lost in Detroit's dysfunction for a decade, but is a Super Bowl champion, a top 10 passer all time, and as of two weeks ago a career winning QB.

So giving the award to a guy like that, who's one of the great warriors in league history, who's battled through adversity as much as anyone, is a feel-good story.

But this isn't a pity vote. This season Stafford has a 30-2 TD/INT split, leads the league in TDs and passer rating, and is top five in yards, yards/game and QBR. And the Rams are 9-2 and widely viewed as the best team in football.

So just give it to him now. He does deserve it.