Week 1 Six-Pack - Three Things I Feel Good And Bad About After One Week of Games

God did week 1 deliver. The afternoon had some stinkers, but was made up for and some by probably the best game we'll see all year? Call me hyperbolic but how can a game be better than Ravens/Bills? Two MVPs, rematch of last year's playoff matchup and likely preview of another this year, home team coming down from 15 with under five minutes to set the city of on fire (for those who stayed) from a buzzer beater field goal by an old legend that as of last week thought he may never kick again.

Throw in a good Monday night game too. Football is so back.

If you listened to the Fundamentally Unsound pod, you know about the six-pack of games we used to run through. Although I want to keep the six-pack alive, I don't want to always have the same blog structure every week. So while I will sometimes run through the regular six-pack as you know it, for week 1 let's talk about some of the predictions that were made in the preview blogs, and which ones, after just 60 minutes of football, I feel good about and not so good about coming to fruition.

Feel Good No. 1: The Dolphins Will Implode Before The Season Is Over

I know I picked them as my gold medal game this week, so if that's the first blog you read you might be confused. But I prefaced that pick by saying it was more about the Colts than the Dolphins, and that pick was not indicative of how I felt about Miami's season at large.

This was embarrassing for the Fins. Their offensive woes are obvious, committing three turnovers before having a drive where they crossed the 50. Not crossing the 100-yard mark of total offense until late in the third quarter. Tua putting up a career worst 2.7 QBR, and the offensive line getting manhandled all game.

But what could be argued as worse was the defense, who allowed Daniel "Indiana" Jones to construct a perfect game. Every drive the Colts touched the ball they scored, but it's the way they scored that stood out to me. They had just three plays that went for over 20 yards. They had the ball for 13 of the 15 first quarter minutes, and 22 of the 30 first half. They ran 40 times and averaged 3.9 YPC, with the longest rush being 15 yards. That's complete control/domination.

It's as poor of a football game as you can play. And doing it in week 1, after a down year last year and offseason drama, it couldn't have happened to a worse team. The Dolphins are well on their way to entering "blow it up" mode before the trade deadline arrives.

Feel bad No.1: The Patriots Being A Playoff Team

This isn’t me throwing in the towel. It’s week one of practically a brand new organization, with a full coaching and personnel overhaul, getting their first live reps. I didn’t expect it to be pretty.

But I expected a little better. The defense which I predicted to be top 10 in the league giving up 362 yards to Geno Smith and the WR corps of misfits, with 9 plays of over 20 yards, isn’t great. But I’m more concerned about the offense, specifically the play calling.

The Patriots weren’t down more than one score until there was 6 minutes left in the game, yet the pass to run ratio was 46 to 12. Four to one?! Tua and the Dolphins having that split makes some semblance of sense given the score of that game, but this is unacceptable.

Maybe I was more out of the loop than I thought going in to the year, but I thought this would be a run first team. We're not loaded with weapons, and although the offensive line should be improved we're still towards the bottom of the league rankings. So why, against the biggest strength of the Raiders which is pash rush, are we dropping back nearly 50 times?

It felt like more of the same for the Pats, which is exactly what we weren't looking for. We also have a serious problem at kicker. It's early, so I'll be patient. For now...

Feel Good No.2: The Ravens will have home field advantage in the AFC

The collapse on Sunday night can’t be overstated. Harbaugh going against his own philosophy and taking the ball out of Lamar’s hands with 2 yards to ice the game can’t be overstated. But let’s not totally overreact to what happened in Buffalo. They were playing the reigning MVP after all.

The Ravens offense looks lethal. I know there’s some question marks about the Bills defense, but I’m gonna lean towards better offense over poor defense in this one. Cause how do you know what to do?

You have the most untackleable QB in Lamar, who effortlessly and consistently turns should-be sacks into 15 yard back breakers. You have Derrick Henry, who should have the ESPN fantasy ranker fired for having him ranked 19th on the draft board, as arguably the second best running option on the team. And you have a good offensive line. I see last night’s production as a regularity this season, cause I don’t know how you stop them.

I do worry about the defense, but again can chalk some of it to playing the MVP and being up multiple scores for most of the game, which could lead to softer coverage. Not that that’s an excuse…well, it’s kind of an excuse. But it is explainable. The Ravens have more weapons than the Bills, and they have a better team all around in my opinion. Last night made me pretty confident they’ll end up the one seed, while at the same time believing they’ll exit the postseason before the Super Bowl again.

Feel Bad No 2: The Lions Will Win the NFC North

I'm going to repeat myself; it's only week 1. Let's remember to not overreact and throw out headlines like ESPN that say "Stephen A: No one expected this drop off from the Lions". That's at minimum a week 4/5 headline. You don't have a drop off after one game.

But I'd be lying if my confidence level didn't dwindle after watching that game, and most if not all comes from the offensive line. The once best unit in the NFL got dominated by the Packers all day long, and despite what the broadcast showed it was more than just Micah Parsons that did it.

Frank Ragnow retired and Kevin Zeitler went to Tennessee, so some drop off (no pun intended) was expected. But the lack of protection changed the whole game, as Goff was constantly rushed to get the ball out. They had no downfield threat, cause they didn't have the time, which made the offense look pretty pedestrian.

I'm not worried about the Lions being a good team. But like I said in my NFC North preview, good doesn't win this division. And the Packers looked great. So I am worried about that. They gotta get the line right.

Feel Good No 3: Bo Nix Will Hold The Broncos Back

Denver's defense is awesome, arguably the best in football and the mainstay of my fantasy teams this year. Not that that's new information, as they were loaded last year and added some key free agents, one of which was the leading tackler on Sunday in Hufanga. They allowed 133 yards and 1.8 yards per pass play, and held Tennessee and Cam Ward to 2-14 on third down.

I know it was the Titans with a rookie QB, but this defense is Super Bowl good. They will carry the team to wins throughout the year, as they did Sunday, but success in the postseason, or the ability of them making it there, will ride on Bo Nix.

And he was BAD on Sunday. Three turnovers and just 176 yards passing on 40 attempts against an average at best defense. A 19.7 QBR that ranked third worst in football, only behind Cam Ward and Tua. Russell Wilson and Bryce Young had better statistical games than Bo, and their teams combined for less points than the Broncos.

I said to pump the brakes on the Broncos Super Bowl talk until we see more from Bo Nix, who was better than expected last year but not an upper echelon QB. I needed to see more from him in order to change my opinion of the Broncos, which I predicted to be the same as last year. And after week 1, I'm feeling more confident he'll be the reason they don't improve on last year, and the cause for concern if I'm a Denver fan.

Feel Bad No. 3: Zac Taylor Makes It Through The Season As Head Coach of the Bengals

I'm going a little off script here, cause it's not like I talked about the job security of Zac Taylor when previewing the Bengals. But in my head, and when I went through their schedule, I thought there was no way after all the criticism of the last few years, starting 0-2 nearly every year of Burrow's career, that they'd get off to another slow start.

They should've lost to the Browns if Cleveland didn't throw up on themselves as often as a contestant in collegiate Beer Olympics. The Brownies had two missed kicks in the second half, including the go-ahead kick from under 40 yards. Flacco threw two interceptions, including the last that went off his receivers hands and into Cincinnati's. The Browns outgained the Bengals 327 to 141, had double the amount of first downs, and 12 more minutes of possession. They dominated this game.

So while the Bengals stole one and finally got a week 1 win, the questions around what the fuck Zac Taylor does (or doesn't do) to get his teams ready to play in September should've gotten louder. That game, played that way, is lost 9 times out of 10 for the Bengals. And if any of those nine outcomes played out Sunday, especially with the way they looked, Zac Taylor's seat would be getting reallll hot. I still think it did. They got to beat the Jags this week and look good doing it, cause another slow start and potentially missed postseason may be all she wrote for the head man in Queen City.

One glimmer of hope for Bengals fans: the last time Cincy won week 1, they went to the Super Bowl.