The Gambling Show: Week 7

Season Record: 11-6-1

We were so due. We've been close a few times this season on a perfect week, but a couple last second field goals, via blocks or phantom penalties, got in our way. We've been seeing the board extremely well, as evidenced by just one losing week on the year.

You won't see me boasting about a 3-0 week or being 65% on the year. This isn't new for us, this is the norm. Act like you've been there before. Stay humble, keep your head down and keep going against the grain. This week we do the same, but this time we're big game hunting.

Gold Medal Game: Texans +3.5

I'm very in on the Seahawks, as evidenced by them leading my "underhyped" teams in the league on my most recent blog. We used them as the gold medal game last week and they came through for us. Sam Darnold is hooping and JSN is leading the league in receiving yards. The defense is coming together, and boast one of the better D lines in football.

But if there's a team/coach/defense that can slow down JSN, which is really what you need to do against Seattle since they aren't getting much production elsewhere (only three WRs/TEs are averaging more than 20 YPG), it's DeMeco Ryans and the Texans, specifically this defense.

A defense that is top 5 in the league against the pass and allowing a league low 12.2 points per game. A team coming off a bye and had two weeks to look at what is still fresh tape of Darnold and this offense. And an offense that finally saw some results ahead of their bye week, dropping 44 on the Ravens in Baltimore.

I'm banking on CJ and the offense to ride at least some of that high they found a few weeks ago, and the defense to not allow any over the top bombs to JSN. If they can keep the offense in front of them, while continuing to keep Seattle's running game at bay, I see no reason why they don't keep this within a FG. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if they win. But we'll take the points.

Silver Medal: Lions -5.5

Did you think I was going to bet against the best cover team in the NFL two weeks in a row? I mean I was tempted, especially given the injuries to their secondary which now is accompanied by Brian Branch's suspension, against a team that's played them tough in the past.

This is a follow the instructions game. That's it. There's no reason the Bucs, regardless of the injuries that continue to plague them, who have outkicked their coverage week after week, continuing to win close games and games they frankly shouldn't, should be a near touchdown dog to anyone. This is a team that heads several outlets' power rankings this week, and whose QB is leading many, including mine's, MVP race.

So the fact they are this large of dogs makes me think this is a bubble burst game. It's possible Mike Evans plays, but at some point the lack of weapons are bound to bite them in the ass. Egbuka joins Godwin and Bucky Irving on the injury list, along with defensive captain Lavonte David who didn't practice as of Thursday.

And the defense has been susceptible so far this year. They've allowed over 30 points to both the Eagles and Seahawks, two teams that are not as prolific as Detroit. Detroit is coming off a bad loss in KC, but I think that game was more to do with KC and the desperation they had than it was Detroit. I'm concerned about the defense, but the injuries to the Bucs diminishes that a touch. I'm not concerned about the offense, who may be getting Taylor Decker back this week and have scored 86 points in their two games this season in Ford Field.

I can see another 40-piece by the Lions on Monday, and I don't see Baker and this unit being able to keep up. I don't love going against this Bucs team, but I'll take the boys (podcast callback for the OGs) on our Monday Night double dip.

Bronze Medal: Chargers -2

I think it's natural to hop off the Chargers bandwagon after their last three games. After a 3-0 start, LA has looked less than stellar to put it nicely. An ugly loss to the Giants, an uglier loss to the Commanders at home, and a near loss to the hapless Dolphins has the hype this team generated in September near empty, despite being in the lead in the division.

The Colts on the other hand are still playing great ball, continuing to surprise and are the current #1 seed in the AFC. But they looked vincible last week against Jacoby Brissett, and were 9 yards away from being upset by the Cardinals backup.

The fact Joe Alt is likely to return on Sunday is massive for the Chargers. The line has looked lost in the three games without him, and the offense as a whole hasn't looked nearly what it did when he was in the lineup. I think Herbert regained some mojo last week, and should have the matchup advantage over the Indy defense more so than Danny Dimes does over the Chargers.

It’s not my favorite pick of all time, but I thought this line would be the exact opposite of what it is, and I think most people will be riding the 5-1 Colts after finally being convinced they're good. So since they're underdogs, with the line slightly moving in their favor, the writing is on the wall.