The Gambling Show: Week 14

Season Record: 20-16-3

Tough times create strong people. Strong people create good times. I won't finish the rest of the adage, but we are currently in one of those tough times, losing two straight weeks for the first (and last) time all season. But how lucky are we that our tough times still have us batting 56% and green in the bank?

The two losses last week weren't even close, so bad that they were easy to forget they ever happened. That's what we get for betting mid-week games, and with our lone victory coming on the Sunday slate, our bread and butter, that provided the reminder to stick to what you know. Don't get cute betting on short weeks.

With that said, let's make those good times.

Gold Medal Game: Packers -6.5

Did you think my apology earlier this week meant I was going to conduct the Bears bandwagon?

Just because I was wrong about them so far, especially last week, doesn't mean I have to blindly bet them to win a game I know they won't. And it's not just me that thinks this. Look at this line.

The one seed in the NFC is a touchdown underdog for the second straight week, and one week after beating the breaks off the defending champs in their building? Yeah, I'll take the Pack.

Bears fans are scared shitless for this game. They love their 9-3 record. They love their quarterback, they love their coach, and they love being relevant in December. But none of them, at least the sane ones (so maybe not that many), will place the Bears on the pedestal of relevancy until after they play the Packers. No one is ready to make boastful claims until after this game, for the sheer fact that deep down, they know what's about to happen.

The Packers have owned the Bears for decades, including their last 11 games which the Packers were actively trying to win (they rested their starters in their week 18 game last year). If this line wasn't so crazy I might think differently, but I can't.

I ended my apology saying I'd await the Bears inevitable fall. I think it happens this weekend. Luckily for them, it won't end their season, although it may in the minds of millions of Chicagoans.

Silver Medal: Colts -1.5

For the first time this year we're hopping on the Colts. I've never trusted this team, and now they've lost three of four and Jonathan Taylor has come back to life, so it's natural to ask why hop on now?

Cause they're playing one of the few teams I trust less. Trevor Lawrence last week reminded you of what he could be, but never consistently is. Against a Colts defense much more fierce than the Titans, I like that matchup for Indy.

Jacksonville has the best rush defense in the league, so getting JT going may be a tall order. But the Jags have shown they can be had in the air, ranking 23rd in the league in pass yards allowed per game. I believe Shane Steichen can design some creative passing concepts early to make the Jaguars back off the line, and if so, can give JT some breathing room to break free later on.

This game really comes down to, again, my lack of trust in Trevor Lawrence to protect the football. These are two very similar teams; they both run well and pass slightly worse. They both stop the run well and stop the pass worse. The weak spot on both teams is the quarterback, and neither has proven they can consistently be good.

So I'll go with the team who's lost three of four giving a point and a half on the road against the current division leader coming off three straight wins. Because the NFL doesn't make sense.

And I don't trust Trevor Lawrence.

Bronze Medal: Steelers +6

This is a system play, nothing else. The underdog in this rivalry has covered 71% of the time since 2005. 20 years!

And often those are smaller lines than this one. And I understand it. Pittsburgh has looked awful recently, capped by an embarrassing performance against the Bills at home where the Bills ran the same play 29 times for 180 yards. The stadium booed the offense all game, and finished the night with a "Fire Tomlin" chant.

Baltimore hasn't looked that great either. Beyond last week's double digit loss to the Bengals at home, they've beaten very bad teams pretty ugly over the last month. Lamar is not his normal self, and Derrick Henry isn't scaring defenses the way he used to. The defense that we thought was fixed was exposed last week, getting torched by the first competent offense they've faced since Lamar's return.

So 6 points feels like a lot. I don't have any reason to believe Rodgers and the Steelers offense will be able to move the ball down the field. I just don't have much reason Lamar and the Ravens will suddenly figure out theirs. I have many reasons to believe the Steelers will fight for their coach, and if Cincinnati can create some turnovers against the Ravens, I sure feel like Pittsburgh can.

This is another one of those weird AFC North games. Even when these teams are lopsided roster-wise they play close. So this year, when they're statistically closer than most may believe, there's no reason not to take the points.