The Gambling Show: Week 13

Season Record: 19-14-3

What a weird and disgusting week last week was. The Chiefs dominated that game, had first and goal with under a minute left in regulation to cover and settled for a push. The Jaguars/Cards was possibly the worst push I've ever had, with Trevor throwing 4 interceptions as predicted but somehow winning the game. And the Bucs was a bloodbath. Hand up, I was a sucker.

I won't be this week. The Thanksgiving slate is loaded, which is exciting and scary when looking forward to a very weak Sunday schedule. Let's get back to winning.

Gold Medal Game: Eagles -7

I was dying to see what this line would be coming into Monday. If you asked an Eagles fan how they view the Birds you'd think the sky is falling, but in reality they've played an insanely difficult schedule, coming off a Super Bowl victory, and are still 8-3. Most people outside of Philly perceive them as a Super Bowl contender.

The Bears are on the other end of the spectrum, with people in Chicago clamoring for Bears games to be played every other day. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are the new Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and the Bears are the hottest thing since sliced bread. But if you ask about the Bears outside of Chicago, the response you'll get probably starts with a dragged out "yeahhhh, but...". Their negative point differential and the fact they've had just one convincing win all year, against one of the weaker schedules in the league, is subject to worthy scrutiny.

So I wondered how Vegas thought of this game. I wondered if the 21-point blown lead on Sunday in Dallas would affect the line and bring it lower. I wondered if the oddsmakers were going to account for the Bears uncanny ability to win close games. I wondered if they'd put any respect on Chicago.

But they didn't. The masses will flock to the team with the same record catching a TD, while I'll sip my afternoon tea on Black Friday with an online cart full of foolishness while I watch the Eagles kick the doors in on the Bears.

This line tells you all you need to know. Follow the instructions.

Silver Medal: Ravens -7

I actually view this game similarly to the Eagles/Bears, but for an obviously different reason.

I love that Joe Burrow is coming back. I don't think it'll matter in terms of the playoff race, but I'm tired of people saying he shouldn't or they don't get it.

Of course you don't get it. There's a level of lunacy these professional athletes possess that the average person doesn't, a maniacal desire to compete and do what they love. Whether or not the Bengals season is over is irrelevant to Joe Burrow wanting to play football. As any athlete would say, if they think they can play, they want to play. And if the doctors agree, what are they paying him a quarter million dollars for if not to get out there.

I just don't think he moves the needle much in this game. This is in no way a shot at one of my favorite quarterbacks in the league, but this team lost two games to the Bears and Jets where they scored 38 or more with Flacco behind center. They'll be without Tee Higgins this week, so the high flying offense is without one of it's wings. And I have to imagine that Burrow will have some rust to shake off in his first action in over two months against a Ravens defense that has found its rhythm.

Baltimore's offense has still yet to click since Lamar's return, but playing this Cincinnati defense, still without Trey Hendrickson, under the lights at home may be just what the doctor ordered to get going.

The Bengals just lost at home to a Patriots team that clearly didn't get up for the start of that game. They scored a defensive TD, had a heroic nine-play goal line stand, played what many considered their best defensive game since week 1, and still gave up nearly 400 yards of offense and lost by 6 at home.

Baltimore will wake up on offense and ruin Joey B's return. The Bengals are a bad team. Again, the line tells you so.

Bronze Medal: Texans +4.5

Here we go again. The team I couldn't quit has done enough in the two weeks we didn't bet them to hop right back on the train.

This is a massive game, as I highlighted in yesterday's blog. I won't repeat myself, so if you want to know the implications go back and read.

I just love this defense. The Colts have lost two of three, with the lone win coming in overtime to the Falcons who stink. They've seemed to flatline, and the Chiefs showed that if you can contain Jonathan Taylor (easier said than done), you can literally stop them from getting a first down. If there's another defense up for the task it's this one.

I think Houston will win, so how can I not take the points? I can't imagine Stroud misses his fourth game in a row from the same concussion, and my expectation is that the line will move once he's cleared below the football number we're getting it at now. If it’s not CJ then we pray, but it’s looking like it will. If they do lose, it'll be by a field goal.