Super Bowl 59 Preview - The Last Thing You Need To Read Before The Game

Not to brag, but since I work for a company that partners with the NFL, I'm allowed to say "Super Bowl" while the rest of you regulars are legally constrained to saying "Big Game" or whatever other stupid names people come up with. Not a brag, just a fact.

The fact I needed to hype myself up for this game makes me kinda angry. It's the fucking Super Bowl, yet I somewhat feel like the season ended two weeks ago. There's a Groundhog Day type of feeling, a feeling of knowing what's going to happen, that just doesn't sit right for the biggest football game of the year. That we've seen this story before, and if it wasn't for the array of appetizers social media chefs have been spewing across my feed for the last two weeks, I might be playing pickleball tonight.

But don't worry. While I did need a pump up to get excited for this game, after 20 minutes of reading the first 25% of Bill Barnwell's Super Bowl preview (seriously, dude, shorten your posts) my vision quest has begun. I can see the painted end zones. I can picture the jerseys. I can envision Chris Jones crying during the National Anthem, winning my annual $10 on a "heads" coin toss result, and being absolutely juiced by opening kickoff, savoring every last moment of football we have left.

So in case you were like me and needed some help, let me tell you why you need to be excited for this game.

If You're An Eagles Fan

I would say "not Chiefs fan", but can you think of a team and fanbase more grotesque than Philadelphia, so much so that people across the nation would rather have a repeat of the last New Orleans Super Bowl, but this time, the lights never come back on and they annul the entire season, rather then say they're rooting for Philly?

Not me, I love Philly. Ever since I went to the Pats/Eagles game at the Linc in 2019, getting verbally accosted the second I walked out of the car until the second I got back in the car seven hours later, fans booing me as I walked to my nosebleed seat in a bright red throwback Jerod Mayo jersey and Pat the Patriot beanie, I've grown to love Eagles fans. No one ever got physical or threw shit. They just couldn't comprehend in their pea brains how you could love football and not love the birds. They think you're the one with the pea brain, so as long as you can get yourself to their level for a few hours, shit talk them back (in a friendly way), and have the fact that they just beat your team in the Super Bowl two years prior in your back pocket in case they do get hostile, you'll have a great time.

I digress. Back to the game.

This Eagles team is the most dominant team in football. Since week four they've lost the same amount of games as the Chiefs (one), but have outscored their opponents by 14 PPG in the process (including the loss). They have the number one defense in the league, the best offensive line in the league, and the best RB in the league behind them.

This team is better than the one they had two years ago. Jalen doesn't need to put up 400 yards and 4 TDs to have a chance on Sunday, and he won't.

But he'll be more dangerous with Saquon by his side. He's an incredibly effective scrambler, and has lessened his roll to the right moon ball throwaways, despite how often they still seem to happen. His receiving core is the same as two years ago, and will likely face a lot more press coverage one on one looks than usual given the tendency of Spags to play cover zero and leave his DBs on islands.

There's not many guys in the league if any I'd rather have on a one on one slant route, or any route, than AJ Brown. If Jalen and the OL can identify and handle the blitzes that are presumed to come at them, the WRs could have a repeat day from Super Bowl 57.

The defense is lethal. Their front four is good enough to not require extra men to get pressure (which they'll need to do), Zack Baun is a first-team All-Pro manning the second line, and they have a mix of vets and stud rookies in the secondary. They can get home with four, spy Mahomes, and still have enough guys on the back end to hold up in coverage.

This team has no weakness. They're the better team. Usually in these games, the better team wins.

If You're A Chiefs Fan

Statistics and usually's don't apply to the Chiefs. So even though they may not be the better team on paper, how can you not believe they'll add to their historic playoff run with another improbable win?

That historic playoff run I'm referencing is just this year. The Texans were the first team in playoff history to lose a game while outgaining their opponents by 100+ yards and not turning the ball over (49-0 prior). The Bills were just the fifth team to ever lose a playoff game scoring 4 TDs and winning the turnover battle (85-4 prior).

Want more? How about the Chiefs have now won 17 straight one possession games, including 12 this year. Or that KC has had just one game all year where they scored more than 30 points - last week against Buffalo, in the game their defense allowed the most points they had all season - the only game all year they needed to.

There's just something about these guys. You can take away their best players, you can expose their defense, you can play the type of game that historically never loses, and they still find a way.

They have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball. It wouldn't surprise me if Spags abandoned his entire MO and showed Philly a look they've never seen on tape, similar to what Belichick did with the Rams and Jared Goff. But it equally wouldn't surprise me if he stuck to his guns and his frequent but timely blitzes got home every time they need to.

Andy Reid has the best rolodex of plays in the league (sorry Ben Johnson). They'll line up in formations no one has ever seen, send so many guys in so many directions the cameraman will feel like he just rode a tilt-a-whirl, and cause the slightest bit of confusion to the defense to give themselves an advantage. And their QB will find and use that advantage every time. He doesn't make mistakes, he gets the ball out quick enough for blitzes to be rendered useless, and if you give him time, he'll wobble around the pocket long enough for someone to get open or escape the eventual pressure and scramble for 15 yards. He makes every big play, and if the game's close, you're in denial to expect anything besides an outcome in his favor.

Pat Mahomes is your quarterback - that's why you're excited.

Ok, enough with the hype - let's talk game.

Jalen Will Be Active Early

In order to beat the Chiefs, you need to be aggressive. You need to zig when they think you'll zag. You need a leg up, but you need to create that leg up.

I think Jalen will come out slinging. I don't think it will last, but Philly has to understand the importance of establishing the threat of the passing game to allow Saquon to be successful past his first play 70-yard TD. If they can throw it early, KC will be forced to adjust their assumed run-stop heavy looks they want to give the birds. They'll need to respect the weapons on the outside, not be so willing to play cover zero, which all would play into the Eagles' hands. Jalen's early passing success also opens up the threat of his legs, along with Saquon, which is when he's at his best. If Philly's play calling is predictable to open the game, the Chiefs will shut it down. They need to be creative, to catch them off their guard. I foresee at least one deep ball in the first two drives. It doesn't even need to hit, they just need to try. But if it does hit, look out.

The Battle Of The Trenches

KC's defensive front vs. the Eagles' O Line is the matchup of the game. Philly's front four's ability to get home by themselves will be a major storyline, sure, but Mahomes will dissect a defense whether or not they bring pressure.

Whether or not Philly's OL can overbear the Chiefs front seven is what will decide this game. Can they create a push up front and form running lanes for Saquon? If they can, that opens everything. The play action game gets involved. They force KC to load the box or bring pressure, creating those one on one opportunities I mentioned earlier. If they pair this with the early passing success, they can have KC’s defense on their heels.

Or can the Chiefs stymie the QB sneak like they did against Buffalo? Can they slow Saquon down and force Philly into obvious passing downs, allowing Spags' imagination to run wild? Can Chris Jones be a one man wrecking crew we've seen him be before, and force Jalen into a bad decision or two that flips the game on its head?

In a QB-centric era of high flying offenses, the game is still won and lost up front. And Philly should have the edge.

Hollywood Brown Enters The Chat

After a quiet return over the last month, something tells me this is a Hollywood Brown game. Maybe it's the last two Chiefs' Super Bowls where their speedy receivers make big plays, but I can't seem to shake the feeling that despite not finding the end zone since his return, or garnering more than 5 catches and 45 yards in a game, the Chiefs and Andy Reid are ready to unleash their Hollywood Brown package in the Big Game (sorry, Super Bowl, forgot I'm allowed to say it).

He was the big offseason addition to the offense. He was supposed to add that explosive layer they've been missing since Tyreek left, but a preseason injury forced Andy Reid to stuff that part of the playbook in a locker to collect dust, and he's been waiting for the perfect time to break it out.

I won't get analytical here, I don't know schematically if there's any merit to this claim. But it’s a gut thing. And it’s one of those feelings that grows in confidence the more I think about it. Look for Hollywood Brown to be an x-factor Sunday night.

The Pressure Is On Jake Elliott

This game won't match the level of shootout it was two years ago. The defenses are both stout, and while I'm not expecting a punt fest, both sides will get their red zone or near-red zone stops to force field goals. And this game will skew heavily towards the team whose kicker comes through.

Butker doesn't miss, unless he's keynoting at college graduation. My worries aren't with him.

Jake Elliott, though, has been shaky at best. In my opinion one of the best clutch kickers in the league over the last few years has missed kicks in six of his last eight games, including all three playoff games. He's 1-7 from 50+ this year, after being 15-17 from distance in the last three seasons combined. He's shown a tendency to play the slice, but has had a two way miss with the overcompensation pull (golfers can relate).

I still have belief that when the moment's biggest, this guy has the nuts to pull it off. I think back to the Rams snow game, after missing two extra points, made two crucial and difficult FGs to keep the birds in the lead. I'd like to think he'll come through, but any missed kick in this game, on either side, will be magnified.

Who wins?

I bet against the Chiefs in their first Super Bowl against the Niners and Jimmy G. I bet against them against the Eagles two years ago. I picked SF again last year. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, that's on me. Three times a fool is twice as much shame on me. But a fourth time? You're picking on a vulnerable man.

I am that vulnerable man. After picking the Bills last week, I was fooled a fourth time. And like James said, if I'm fooled a fifth time, the shame is back on me. It's time to take some personal responsibility.

So let me be fooled once more before I take that responsibility. Let me die on my sword, act like the vulnerable idiot I am, and face the consequences later. I've come this far, why fold now?

The Eagles are the better team. They win this game ten times over if it's played on paper. They're seeking revenge, and are defending the league shield to protect no team ever winning three straight championships. This is possibly the best team KC's had to play in their three year run. These are all logical things that make logical sense.

I've lived the greatest dynasty in the game, and know you don't win every time. Almost every time, yes, but losses do come. If I'm wrong again, the shame will be back on me, and I'll have a confession to make. So let's hope I'm right. I should be right.

Philadelphia Eagles 31, Kansas City Chiefs 23

Betting Nugget

If you've made it this far, you deserve to win some money. I already gave out my "heads" pick, so in honor of Fundamentally Unsound pod's Super Bowl Gambling Show, I'll give out five props, most of which will be determined early, so you can enjoy the second half of the game as a football fan.

Eagles to score on first drive +118

Chiefs to convert first 3rd down -115

Method of first offensive TD - Rush +110

Jalen Hurts TD -120

Chiefs over 5.5 3rd down conversions -125

Thanks for reading. Happy Super Bowl.