Sunday Showed Once Again Just How Perfect You Need To Be To Beat The Chiefs

A seismic sigh swept the country Sunday, one that scoped the entire US outside of KC proper. A sense of sorrow was felt, but more so a sense of shame, falling for the trick we all knew was coming.

In one of the most lopsided fan games I’ve ever witnessed (I heard three separate conversations at the grocery store Sunday morning about people rooting for the Bills, none of which were Bills fans), the public was once again silenced by the Chiefs. We are yet again subjected to another red wave at a Super Bowl, filled with Travis Kelce commercials and media dorks' terrible Taylor Swift lyric puns.

It was inevitable, but nonetheless disappointing. Buffalo had the ball with a chance to win the game - if you told them to sign the dotted line on that before kickoff they’d have done it in sharpie - but they came up short, yet again, to the elusive Super Bowl, against the team going to their third straight.

What the Chiefs are and have been is nothing short of historic. This in no way is written to diminish their greatness. The point of this blog is to show you that you can play great against this team, nearly perfect, and still wind up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. This blog is an attempt to quantify the minuscule margin of error you have in order to beat them, something no one’s done in three years.

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Buffalo wasted their first possession. A first down run was followed by two Josh Allen throws/plays that had me thinking I time travelled to 2022, throws that had me questioning if everything I said he’d need to be, everything he’s been all season, was thrown out the window at the first sight of the tomahawk chop. Two balls that should’ve been interceptions but weren’t. Nonetheless, a three and out. The Chiefs’ first possession consisted of zero third downs, ninety yards and nine plays. By the time Josh got his wits about him they were down 7-0 with a possession disadvantage. An easy mistake to overlook, but forced an uphill battle from the jump. Let’s call it a mini turnover.

They found some momentum on their second possession, reaching the edge of field goal range. Ahead of the chains on a second and five, Josh muffed the snap, and despite keeping possession lost four yards. In need of the four yards they lost to get back in field goal range, Buffalo likely called a more conservative third down play then if he didn’t fumble. No guarantee that drive ends in 7 if they pick up the first, but that’s a possible four points left on the board. Another mini turnover.

After scoring a TD on a seemingly do-or-die possession with seconds remaining in the first half, the Bills kicked the extra point to make it a 21-17 game, stealing momentum in the process. But the Chiefs jumped offsides, and Sean McDermott decided to take points off the board and go for two. In the moment I said it was dumb; take the point, and the momentum, and ride it into the second half. You don't take points off the board against this team. I get being aggressive, but this felt more reckless than calculated.

They didn't get it, of course, and cost themselves a point. Fast forward to the second half, after they score the go-ahead TD to make it 22-21, they need to go for two again. They don't get that either, and a should be field goal lead is now one.

The Chiefs score, and of course, convert their two-point conversion, turning a 28-24 game into 29-22. All stemmed from taking the point off the board.

Then there's the fourth down spot controversy. Gun to head I say he made it, but there wasn't 100% conclusive evidence he crossed the line, and they were never coming off their original call. You can get mad at the refs all you want, but if there's anyone the Bills should be mad at it's themselves. Their surefire QB sneak went 2/5 on Sunday, yet they kept calling the number. Not once in a yard or less scenario did they hand the ball off to their RB who averaged 6.5 yards per carry. It was a turning point in the game, yes, but the Bills got what they deserved.

After all of those things, all those could've beens, what ifs, or no big deals (depending how much you agree with me), the game came down to two plays. The first was the 4th and 5 fresh out of the two minute warning. The Chiefs pressured Josh all game, but rarely if ever had free runners at the QB. But in perfect Spags fashion, when the whole world knew pressure was coming, dialed up the perfect blitz to fool the offensive line, and had not one but two free runners to Josh Allen within a second, and a third when Karlaftis beat the right tackle in his one-on-one. Josh backpedaled and hurled up a prayer that was almost answered but fell incomplete. Game over, you thought.

But the defense gave themselves a chance. After one first down pickup, KC faced a 3rd and 9 with the game on the line. And in perfect Andy Reid fashion, when the whole world knew they'd run some clever motion to pick up the first down, called the perfect play, running the right-set RB across the line and against the grain of the trips left receivers to a wide open prairie, easily picking up the first down after the defender had to dodge his own players on his way across the field. And the game was sealed.

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The Bills played a great game, they really did. Once they got past the early nerves they got back to their bread and butter and ran the ball down the Chiefs throat. They made the big play when they absolutely needed it to end the first half. They got the rare sack on Mahomes to take the Chiefs out of field goal range to start the third, and forced an equally rare three and out on the Chiefs next possession after taking the lead.

They converted two fourth and goals into TDs. They forced a turnover on the same possession they forced a fumble that was called back due to defensive offsides. And they held KC to a field goal with three minutes in the game on a goal to go situation. The breaks that never fall the way of Chiefs opponents, the breaks you need to beat the unbeatable, happened, yet it still wasn't enough.

Kansas City took advantage of Buffalo's most minute misfortunes. They didn't flinch to start the game. They made their traditional freak play when Worthy took the ball out of Cole Bishop's hands. They schoolyard bullied Kaiir Elam after Benford went down in the first quarter.

And they formationed and schemed the Bills to death. KC scored two TDs using the full house formation, including a perfectly timed and never used Pat Mahomes read option keeper. They used the roll out option on fourth and 1 in the second quarter, then ran it back on third and goal later in the game, both of which ended with Mahomes conversions. Spags brought the perfect pressure on the game's biggest play, and Andy Reid called the perfect play to end it.

There's a reason this team defies the laws of probability and has won 17 straight one possession games. 17!! It's not just because they have the best QB in the league. It's not because the refs bail them out. It's not because they always make the big special teams play.

It's because they're situationally perfect. They brush off the occasional misstep like a goldfish. They pounce on any opponent's mistake, regardless of size, and magnify it into a turning point. They have the best coach in football, and arguably the best defensive coach, who's fucked up his head coaching opportunities enough to be a forever coordinator, both of which never seize to call the right play at the right time.

And they've been there, done that - something almost no one in the league can say. And they're there again. Kudos to the Chiefs. I don't know how they lose in New Orleans. Cause Sunday further proved that you can't beat this team with good, and you can't beat them with great. You need to be perfect, even when they’re not. And as close to perfect as Buffalo was, close ain't good enough.