Spoilers: Wild Card Weekend Script Has Been Released, Here's What You Need To Know

While I fight the arduous fight of not counting the number of meaningful football games there are until the bleak canvas of a Midwestern winter is left without a ray of sunshine (13, there's only 13 games left), I can't hold back my excitement. The best part of football season, and debatably any sports season, is just hours away.

All week long you've heard the predictions, you've heard the analysis. You've heard every analyst tell you the same thing with different deliveries, boldly predicting the one seeds in both conferences will meet in New Orleans for the Lombardi. The big upset being the 3 seed over the 2 seed. Telling you everything that anyone with a pea for a brain is thinking. Like football ever goes according to plan.

If you're sick of listening to these idiots, you've come to the right place. The place that lends itself to reverie. That reminds you that life doesn't have to be so boring. To live the life of adventure, to forge your own path, and prosper. And laugh at those that took the easy way. A land of opportunity, if you will. Let's dig in.

Wild Card Weekend

Chargers/Texans

The Texans have made the playoffs eight times since 2011, and every time they've played Saturday afternoon. The least desired slot, where ratings are lowest - right where they should be. But as is often the case, this is one of the more intriguing matchups in the first round.

If you've listened to anyone talk about the NFL playoffs since Monday you've likely heard a grand total of ZERO people pick the Texans to win this game. The Chargers have Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert, JK Dobbins is back, etc. etc. Houston is missing Tank Dell, missing Steph Diggs, and CJ has struggled more than most expected in his Sophomore season. The choice is obvious.

Last year, when Houston had Cleveland and a red hot Joe Flacco come to town, a team they just lost to three weeks prior, the choice was also obvious, with a lot of people including myself hot on the upset (I tried to find ESPN expert picks from last year but to no avail). Cleveland was road favorites, just like LA this year. And Houston blew them out. Two pick-6's from Flacco and Stroud's best game since November, the Texans scout team was game-planning for the divisional round by the time players on the sideline were putting the fours up.

This has the feeling of a classic NFL upset. Two relatively even teams, and everyone and their mother is on the Chargers. Hell my first instinct was to be too. But then I reminded myself not to be a sheep, not to blindly follow the yellow brick road. Take the path less traveled, and hang with the flying monkeys. Get comfortable being uncomfortable. The NFL is never this obvious. We saw it last year. I say we see it again. Look for Nico Collins to have a Mike Evans type performance against the Chargers a few weeks ago. Stroud boys stand up.

Pick: Houston Texans

Steelers/Ravens

While you could argue everything I said about the last game could be applied here, I'd argue this isn't a matchup between even, or even relatively even, teams. The Steelers are 0-4 in their last four games with a point differential of -52. All against playoff teams (I'm including Bengals as a playoff team - I wish they were instead of the Steelers). They're completely anemic on offense, and their annual tradition of a diva WR acting like a child for not getting the ball has commenced. They've turned into the pumpkin of a team I predicted they'd be the entire season.

The Ravens on the other hand have seemingly fixed all the issues that caused me to pause on their legitimacy early in the year. They've figured out how to use Derrick Henry properly (although the concern of being too pass happy in big games still applies), and their pass defense went from bottom three in the league the first half of the year to top three the back half.

The only way Pittsburgh keeps this close or win is if they get 3+ turnovers, which they've already done against Baltimore this season (and won). If they lose or even push the turnover battle they have little shot. I'll never say no shot with the Steelers/Ravens cause it's the Steelers/Ravens and fuck shit always happens with these two teams, but this feels like the least exciting game of the weekend despite the storied rivalry. I hope I'm wrong, I hate the Ravens.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Broncos/Bills

Since the Broncos crawled into the playoffs and waited until last week to officially clinch, I never got my chance to gloat about how I predicted them to be in this exact spot. How the 5.5 over/under season win total Broncos, who were forgotten by the masses quicker than Joe Biden forgets he's reading a teleprompter, weren't forgotten by me. I saw a team that was on the cusp last year (8-9 with a pathetic offense). I saw a team with a great defense. And I saw a coach on his last life, ready to be called a Drew Brees free-loader, get the QB he wanted and believed in. While every moron laughed at me for picking the Broncos to make the playoffs, as I mentioned at the beginning of this post, look who's laughing now.

I don't see this game being the cakewalk most do. Partly because of my Broncos fandom by being a believer all season, but partly cause of this defense. I think it can give Josh Allen fits. I think it can frustrate him, tempting him to turn back to his old ways. I think it can give Bo Nix opportunities to make noise in this game. And lastly cause I don't think Bo Nix will be scared. He's like 30 years old, he's not a normal rookie. I don't think the moment will be too big. I don't think he'll be afraid to sling it and take chances. And I see this game coming down to which way those chances fall.

I like the Bills to win, but if I had to bet the game I would take the points with Denver. I'm not, but just so you know how I'm quantifying what I'm saying. Josh Allen is playing the best ball of his career, I don't think he'll fall into the aforementioned temptation, and he's going to give himself another shot at the big dogs of the AFC. He has to.

I feel like a proud dad and the Broncos are my son. "I believed in you kid, when no one else did. And you believed in yourself". But the dream ends in Orchard Park.

Pick: Buffalo Bills

Packers/Eagles

I want to. I really want to. You know what I'm talking about.

But I'm sick of Jordan Love being talked about as one of the best QBs in football, the few times that still happens. I'm sick of his backfoot prayers that are either answered or incomplete. The Packers had a good season, they're a good team. But they were 0-5 against the three best teams in the NFC (Eagles, Lions twice, Vikings twice). Sure, pat on the back for playing them all close, but this isn't horseshoes.

All year they've shown they're a step above the average, everyday NFL team. And all year they've also shown they're a step below the class of the NFC.

Philly is in that class. They're one of the most well-rounded teams in the league, and all of the problems that marred this team down the stretch last season never arose this time around. They lost on a last second play to a playoff Commanders team with their backup QB, then smoked a Cowboys team that played pretty well down the stretch with their third string.

Both QBs are banged up but playing, which is something to watch for, but if Jalen is near 100% my concerns are limited. Philly has a habit of starting out slow, and Green Bay can be dangerous with a lead. That's the one concern. But I'm not letting what happened last year in Jerry World when the 7 seed Packers curb stomped the 2 seed Cowboys affect my decision this year. This isn't the Cowboys. Give me da birds.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Commanders/Buccaneers

It'll take something crazy to overtake my shock of this being the Sunday Night, best rated, most intriguing matchup as decided by the suits at the league office. I guess Jayden Daniels is that box office.

All I hear is Jayden this, Jayden that. Jayden Jayden Jayden (say this in the Andy Bernard "Tuna, Tuna, Tuna" voice). He's the new Lamar, no one can tackle him. He put the team on his back, he's must see TV, etc. etc. etc.

And I get it, he is must see TV. He is one of the bright stars in the NFL, and will likely do great things in his career. I'll be rooting for him.

But I don't see it yet. While it's easy to get swept away in the hoopla of the shiny new toy, I'm staying level set. And by doing so, I can look under the hood and see a well oiled machine going up against a pimped out Civic.

Go down the line. You want to take Jayden over Baker? Go for it. I won't, but you're welcome to. Baker is playing outstanding football this year. He's 4th in passing, 3rd in TDs and 4th in passer rating. He has better weapons, including the first ballot HOF'er Mr. Evans, and has been in this spot before.

Tampa also has the 4th best rushing attack to match their 3rd best passing game. So the advantage you'd assume Washington has on the ground isn't so profound.

That's where this game is won in my opinion. Washington's rush defense is 30th in the league (Tampa's is 4th). While the Commanders pose a stout passing defense, and can place long-time foe Marshon Lattimore on Mike Evans, that defense has been trending in the wrong direction the last few weeks. And based on what I've seen lately with Washington's offense, which I talked about last week after they beat the Falcons, I don't believe they're well-rounded enough. One man shows don't win come January. Ask Josh Allen and Lamar.

So while the public is heavy on the road dog, I'm going against the team I have noted concerns about. I'm going with the better team over the better player. This feels like an upset pick even though they're favored and a higher seed. The fact the line hasn't moved makes me more confident.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vikings/Rams

Here it is. The easiest upset pick of the weekend. The 14-win Vikings showed who they really are on Sunday night in Detroit and have a rematch with a team that already beat them this season. As easy as easy gets.

I don't see it that way. To me, last Sunday night was more about Detroit than it was Minnesota. Detroit punched them in the mouth and never looked back. They won off will, off wanting it more, needing it more. That's what and who that team is, and not many other teams out there can match them in that regard.

Sam Darnold had a bad game, yes, but I think it was just that. A bad game. I've come a long way on Sam Darnold, and I don't think all the good he's showed should be washed away in one week. And he got his first "playoff" game out of the way. He can brush it off, and unlike most situations, gets another chance to redeem himself eight days later.

And I think he does. The plays were there last week. He'll watch the tape, he'll learn. O'Connell will continue to scheme guys open, and if he makes one or two of the plays he's routinely made all season, the Vikings will head right back to Detroit like Dan Campbell said.

Another reason I like the Vikings is cause I don't like the Rams. In general I do, yeah, but not the last month of the season. This team is the Puka Nakua show. If he goes, they go. Seemingly long gone are the days of Cooper Kupp being a reliable target for Matthew Stafford. In the three games Stafford and the starters played after their high scoring shootout against the Bills, they've averaged 14.7 PPG and have 3 cumulative TDs. Puka Nacua accounted for 61%, 51%, and 68% of the team's receiving yards in those games. Stafford hasn't thrown for over 190 yards, and Cooper Kupp has a combined 4 receptions for 53 yards. Not the high-flying offense we typically label the Rams with.

They've been stout on defense to be fair, you have to win those games somehow. But this week, I'm gonna trust one of my favorites coaches in the league in Brian Flores to scheme something up to slow down Puka. If Cooper Kupp beats you so be it, which sounds sacrilegious to say. I trust KOC to call another QB-friendly game, and Sam Darnold to bounce back.

If the Rams were playing better, or even OK on offense I'd be inclined to pick them. But the Vikings have surprised all year, and I think they do it one more time. This is the only game I'm betting this week (I got it at -1 on Tuesday before the venue moved).

Pick: Minnesota Vikings