AFC North Preview

Close your eyes.

Well, actually, open them so you can read.

But if you were to theoretically close your eyes, and I were to say “tough nose football”, “all-time great defenses”, “run it down your throat”, or phrases of the like, and asked you to name the first NFL division that pops in your head, chances are the majority of answers would mirror my thought.

AFC North.

Whether we’re talking the Steelers of the 70s, the Ravens of the late 90s/early 2000s, or both of those teams the majority of the last twenty years, the AFC North just breathes old school, blue-collar football. The rivalries, the tradition, the fanbases/cities; something about this division soothes the soul for a football traditionalist.

While football has more or less changed out of the grit and grind style into a pass-heavy fantasy-football centric extravaganza, a lot of this division has stayed loyal to the way football used to be played. Let’s break it down (alphabetically).

Baltimore Ravens

Buy low, sell high. While Wall Street remains a cesspool of corporate corruption, the formula remains simple. When there’s hype, sell. When a fortune 100 tanks 20% overnight from a rough earnings report, buy. That’s economics 101. If we translate this to football, logic says sell the Ravens.

After reaching all-time highs last year, leading the league in point differential, turnover margin, red zone efficiency and wins, there’s only one way to go. That’s not necessarily to 2008 S&P lows, but how can you expect them to replicate the historic numbers they put up last year, especially with the roster turnover that occurred in the first offseason of Lamar’s contract kicking in.

Most people will look at the Derrick Henry signing and say they’ll be better than last year. But if you haven’t learned by now, I’m no schmuck. Unlike the average idiot, I know an NFL roster goes beyond the players on fantasy football lineups. Three OL which bolstered one of the more dynamic run games football has ever seen left. Key players at all three levels of their defense are gone, two of which to division rivals. Their DC left for a head coaching gig, and their OL coach just tragically passed.

They have an absolute gauntlet of a schedule to start the season. Their division is one of the best in football. There’s a lot this team has to overcome. So I’ll buy the dip on a slow start, and a second place finish in the division. Remember I’m not saying they’ll stink. Record: 11-6

Cincinnati Bengals

Guess who’s back? Back again? Not just because of the slim shady frosted tips Joey B’s rocking going into the season, but the man with the most swag in the history of the state of Ohio (low bar, granted) is ready to remind the world of who he is when healthy. Joe Burrr was never healthy last year, even before his season ended. The last time we’ve seen him healthy he was politely introducing himself to Aaron Donald mid Super Bowl.

There’s a lot to like about this team. Offense is obvious, and after a negotiation Mr. Wonderful would be proud of Tee Higgins signed the franchise tag for what many perceive to be his final swan song in Cincy. So I see him making it count. Ja’Marr is Ja’Marr, but I think Tee will have a big year. Swingin Joe Mixon left, and while on paper Zack Moss doesn’t have the same pop, he outgained Swingin on yards per carry last year, popping enough that the Colts gave JT a limited role when he returned from injury. Word around camp is he might be RB2 after what they’ve seen from the pass catcher Chase Brown, so don’t expect a dropoff from the backfield. They have one of the better offensive lines on paper in the league, returning four and adding once upon a time pro bowler Trent Brown.

The flip side is what’ll keep Bengals fans up at night. After a stout 2022 season this unit took many steps back last year despite a lot of roster continuity. They lost a couple big names in DJ Reader and Awuzie in free agency, but the other 2022 mainstays are back again. As is Lou Anaremo, one of the better D coordinators in the NFL. I’ll chalk up some of the dropoff to the team’s hopes going down the drain with their QB, and I expect this unit to return to closer to 2022 form than 2023. I’ll also back their QB. You can’t deny the swag. Record: 11-6

Cleveland Browns

Am I supposed to believe in DeShaun Watson? That three full years and thirty plus “fun massages” later he’ll find what he had in Houston? Tell me why I should.

He was horrible last year. I’m talking bottom ten QB in the league horrible. He’s played 12 games for the Browns in two years, and is completing less than 60% of his passes and averaging 184 YPG with a 1.6 TD to turnover ratio. That’s laugh out loud funny for a guy who was guaranteed $225 million and deemed the savior of the franchise.

This defense has 9 starters returning, so they should be similarly dominant as last year. I have no qualms there. But DeShaun leaves me so unconvinced I’m changing the answer on the multiple choice quiz every other minute (when in doubt, choose C). I’m a flamboyant hater of Jerry Jeudy so don’t give me that as a reason for hope. Nick Chubb isn’t going to start the season, and is giving strong Jonathan Taylor vibes from last year. Both tackles are already injured and the OL coach left for a family reunion on Broadway, which will put more pressure on the passing game and DeShaun.

One of the greatest days of my life was watching DeShaun take down Alabama for Clemson’s first national championship in 35 years. I was a ride or die. He was my guy, forever and always. Or so I thought. Those days just seem so far away. Record: 8-9

Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m sick of the Steelers. I stayed on the ship last year when there was no reason to, predicting they’d make the playoffs. And while I looked like a genius in doing so, watching and rooting for them all year made me want to waterboard myself in some three rivers muck.

This team is addicted to drama. Their WRs make more storylines that catches. Mike T gets credit for fixing a broken locker room but never blame for allowing one to form. They rely on freak plays and defensive scores to win games. So this year I’m out. I’m not believing a team that hasn’t won a game when losing the turnover battle in the last three seasons wins that battle more than not this year regardless of what broken QB they throw under center. I’m not believing a team who has downgraded at nearly every skill position this year (how Najee Harris is still RB1 blows my mind) will take significant strides vs last year’s shitshow. And I’m not believing that in this division, with this schedule, that their defense which I expect to still be very good will be able to score at the clip they did last year to keep Mike T’s .500 or better streak alive.

Six of their last eight games are in the division. The other two are Philly and KC. This team may not win a game after Daylight Savings. Record: 6-11