NFC Preview: Four New Teams Go Dancing
The NFC is far more interesting than the AFC in terms of playoff possibilities.
The AFC may be deep, as I predicted two 10 win teams watching the playoffs on the couch this year, but you won't find many arguments of who will be in the dance other than the nine teams I outlined in the AFC preview yesterday.
In the NFC, it's almost the entire conference. You could argue three teams in the NFC East (I won't, but you could if you're from the DMV), all four in the NFC North and NFC South, and three in the West. That's (checks math) 14 teams (!!) that in theory could play a playoff game this season. Sorry Giants and Cardinals.
It's a much more fun conference to predict, since there are so many more imaginative iterations of how the season can go. Here's what I think.
NFC East Champion - Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
If I'm an Eagles fan I'm loving what I'm hearing on every ESPN morning talk show. Everything is about the Cowboys and how amazing they're going to be, to the point that I've reconsidered picking them as a wild card.
The only Eagles talk I ever see is how Jalen Hurts was ranked 97th in the top 100 players, and the debates about how much the loss of AJ Brown will hurt Philadelphia.
It's music to Philly fans' ears - or at least it should be.
They have one of the best all around rosters in the league. Offensively, I truly believe that despite AJ Brown being an addition by addition for the Patriots, will be addition by subtraction for the Eagles. As will Kevin Patullo, who should've got a parade in Philadelphia after he was fired. Sean Mannion is an unknown, but I'll go out on a limb and say he's an upgrade.
I think the birds go back to their roots and force feed Saquon the ball and beat teams with physicality. They'll certainly be able to do that on defense, as they're loaded on all three layers. Don't sleep on Devonta Smith being a WR1, either.
It must be so refreshing for this team to not have a media circus around them to start the year. I think they thrive in that environment and three-peat the division.
NFC North Champion - Detroit Lions (12-5)
Detroit's 2025-26 season from hell, where they were decimated with injuries and didn't play a lick of defense, ended with a 9-8 record.
If that's the floor, I like to think they'll rebound this year.
I'm still nervous about the defense, as they lost a few of their key pieces in the offseason, as did their offensive line, which is no longer a shoe in for a top five unit, but I'm equally confident in their playmakers and coaching.
Dan Campbell hasn't slept all offseason as the thought he let his players down kept him up all night weeping. I think he's a great coach, and I believe he'll make the adjustments needed to get this team back on track.
I trust you, Dan.
They also have a last place schedule, which is crazy seeing they were 9-8, which grants them games against the Cardinals (while the other three NFC North teams play the Niners, Seahawks, and Rams), Titans, and Giants. Those are three wins the other NFC North teams likely won't have, and could be the difference in the best division in football.
NFC South Champion - Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
This is my craziest pick of the year, and I don't think it's close. But my craziest pick last year was the Seahawks, who were fourth in the NFC West in preseason odds, to win the division. So my track record ain't too shabby.
The thought process for this pick is similar-ish to the Seahawks last year.
The Falcons went 8-9 last year with absolute disfunction at QB and a head coach in Raheem Morris who I will with as much respect as possible say has head-coached his last game in this league, and deservedly so.
They still have QB disfunction, but they greatly upgraded the head coach with Kevin Stefanski coming on board.
Stefanski isn't new to overcoming disfunction, as he brought the Browns to the playoffs twice in the last five years - the only two playoff appearances the Browns have had since Netflix was a mail-in DVD rental company. If he can do it there, he can do it anywhere.
The offense has a ton of talent, as they've had for years, and should rely heavily on Bijan and the run game much like the Nick Chubb Browns did with Stefanski at the helm.
The defense isn't great, but something about having Za'Darius Smith in the locker room has me thinking there will be a higher power helping a unit that will need to overcome early injuries/suspensions. You want a guy like this in your locker room. Sometimes it's bigger than football.
Nothing Tua has done in the preseason/offseason should give me reason to believe he'll resurrect. But behind a great running game, as he's had in years past with McDaniel's offense, and should have again this year, I'm rooting for him to do enough.
You always need one bold prediction; this is mine. This division is bad enough that it feels like the spot to call my shot.
NFC West Champion: Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Someone has to put some respect on the Super Bowl Champs, and it might as well be the guy that believed in them before anyone else did.
All the talk is around the Rams, and understandably so. I mean look at their roster. But the idea that Seattle can rip off another 13-14 wins this year and edge out the LA super team is not nearly as far fetched as many people think.
For a team that won the Super Bowl, the Hawks have had incredibly low turnover. Most years, Super Bowl rosters get purged as teams around the league overpay in free agency to get some championship DNA in their buildings.
But Seattle is returning 20 of their 22 starters from last year, and 32 of their top 37 players in terms of snaps. That's unheard of.
So the fact they're being brushed off in the division is laughable. Mike McDonald cemented himself as the best defensive mind in football. Sam Darnold cemented himself as a top 10-15 QB in the league, and they have the same fucking team! Why couldn't they win the division again?
Don't sleep on this team. Or you'll look like a fool just like last year.
Wild Card # 1 - Los Angeles Rams (13-4)
It seems wrong that a 13-win team is a wild card, but sometimes life isn't fair.
I don't know how one team can possibly have this much talent, and enough money to pay them (they just had $20 million laying around last week to pay Aaron Donald?), but they're absolutely loaded.
Maybe the most loaded of any roster I've ever seen.
I don't see a way they don't live up to expectations. A roster that's littered with Hall of Famers and all-pros, a team that's hungry after a tough end to last season, and a team whose clock is ticking, and ticking fast. Fuck them picks.
This is a top two team in the NFL; unfortunately the other top two team is in the same division. Their chance for revenge will come again in the playoffs.
Wild Card # 2: Minnesota Vikings (10-7)
I know I made the Seahawks of last year comparison with the Falcons, but I think my logic plays here more.
The Vikings went 9-8 with similar QB dysfunction as the Falcons last year, but actually upgraded that position in the offseason, much like the Seahawks of last year.
With everything else equal, and one of the better coaches in the league, the QB upgrade should be enough to improve by one game (at minimum), which is all they'll need to make the playoffs.
I'm big on situational resets this year. Whether it's coaches or players, I think new scenery for proven players/coaches that have stalled out in their old destination can be a great thing, and revitalize careers. I think Kyler Murray will be the poster boy for that this year.
They have the weapons and offensive scheme for any QB to be successful - they just didn't have the QB. I think Kyler is still immensely talented, and in a new place with new expectations I think he'll shock some people. You always have to respect B Flo and the defense in Minnesota, too. Love that they brought Harrison Smith back.
The thought here is simple: a team that was on the cusp a year ago, who was a dumpster fire at the most important position in the sport, will win more games with an upgrade at that spot. It's not rocket science. Let's get skol back in the playoffs.
Wild Card # 3: Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
I thought a few weeks ago when I first decided the Cowboys would make the playoffs I was Lewis and freaking Clark, paving a path that no one else had travelled. But after watching TV the last couple weeks, I realize this is as square of a pick as it gets in the NFL.
Oh well. I still believe it.
The Cowboys offense was elite last year, and will be again this year. They have two WR1s on the roster, a RB in Javonte Williams that made Denver regret letting him go, and a QB who like many in the AFC gets knocked for his playoff shortcomings but produces every regular season.
The defense, though, was pathetic to put it lightly.
The thought process here is similar to the Texans and Bengals; if the Cowboys defense becomes an average unit - not even above average - their offense will score enough points to win games. There's a little too much reliance on the rookies for my liking on defense, which is why I'm capping them at 10 wins, but in my model 10 wins is enough. I still like the Eagles for the division, as they're way more well-rounded.
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Teams That Just Missed The Cut
San Francisco 49ers (9-8) & Chicago Bears (9-8)
The Niners feel like their time has passed, which sucks. They'll probably go down as one of the most popular "that team never won a Super Bowl?" answers in NFL trivia in 20 years. But they're older, injured again, and in the same division as the two best teams in the sport. They'll still be competitive, but don't be surprised if they underwhelm.
The Bears I put in the same category as the Broncos. Pulling off miraculous comebacks what felt like every week last season isn't sustainable, and although I think Caleb will be better with another year in BJ's system, the defense leaves a lot to be desired. The bottom two teams in the division last year will make strides (see above), and someone will be left out. I'm not predicting them to be terrible.
Underachievers
Green Bay Packers (8-9) & Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
I'm pretty over the Packers. I feel like for years they've underachieved, and if it weren't for the playoff expansion to seven teams a few years ago, would've missed the postseason four years in a row. Jordan Love is incredibly talented, but too inconsistent to put my faith in him. Josh Jacobs is out for who knows how long (deservedly so), and Micah Parsons is out for at least the first month if not first half of the season. Without Parsons last year the defense struggled, and likely will again. I think this is LaFleur's last year in Green Bay.
I don’t know how Tampa didn’t bring in a new coach after last season’s collapse, and everything you hear coming from Tampa is that the vibes are off - likely because of that. They should be the best team in the division, and they should win it. But that was also true last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did win, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Todd Bowles doesn’t make it through the year. I lean towards the ladder.
Teams That Don't Deserve More Than A Sentence (Or Two)
New Orleans Saints (7-10): I like the addition of Etienne, and Tyler Shough is a hot pick to breakout, but Chris Olave is the only real weapon on offense, and their defense is probably going to stink.
Carolina Panthers (6-11): I'm glad Panthers fans had a moment last year; they deserved it. Let's hope they enjoyed it, cause it may be a while until they get another. Bryce Young is still not someone I'm counting on.
New York Giants (6-11): I know what I said about coaches in new places, but this feels like a year or two away. I'm also not a big John Harbaugh (or Giants) fan, so maybe this is a little personal, but this is the "fade the hype" team of the year.
Washington Commanders (5-12): This record prediction may be a hot take, but Jayden Daniels will need to be Superman to win games with this defense. Even when he was healthy last year, he wasn't what he was his rookie year as teams learned how to defend him. Dan Quinn may make it through the season, but will be coaching elsewhere next year.
Arizona Cardinals (3-14): Yawns. Hopefully Jeremiah Love will provide some highlights. As much as I like the guy, I can't believe I have to watch Jacoby Brissett be a starting QB again. I probably won't watch much.
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