AFC Preview: Nine Teams Finish With Double Digit Wins

Now that we've talked Patriots, it's time to broaden our scope and talk about the league as a whole, starting with the AFC.

The AFC is deep this year - like Steph Curry warm-up range deep. There are nine teams that could have an argument made on their behalf to win the conference, and do so without making Dr. Phil fall out of his chair.

Seriously. Last year there were seven teams with 10 wins, and the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals weren't any of them. With 3 of the top QBs in the conference/league assumed to be healthy this year (just humor me and assume), we can all imagine a world where those three join the double-digit win club.

With only seven playoff spots available, it's more than possible a 10 win team misses the playoffs if they all play to their capabilities.

So who's left out? I predicted every single game this season to determine exactly that. So let's dig in.

AFC East Champion - New England Patriots (11-6)

Oh you thought we were done talking about the Patriots?

I am don't worry - if you want the in depth analysis of why I think this will happen, read my blog from last Monday.

If you want the cliff notes: they've improved the roster, they had minimal turnover, and they have a great coaching staff and veteran leaders that won't allow for a Super Bowl hangover. I'm not saying they're going to win 14 games again, but I think 11 will be enough to win the division on a tiebreaker.

AFC North Champion - Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)

This feels like it for the Bengals. They desperately need to have a full season of Joe Burrow being healthy. They desperately need to find themselves in the postseason again. And they desperately need to play some fucking defense.

Arguably the best pickup of the offseason in the NFL was Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati. A defensive line that got demolished on the ground last season will have someone to plug holes in the middle, while also being an offensive lineman's worst nightmare in pass rush. He should also bring some swagger to this side of the ball they haven't had since they went to the Super Bowl. It sucks they lost Trey Hendrickson, especially in division, but they signed Boye Mafe from Seattle to replace him and Jonathan Allen as another veteran. So the line should be better.

The secondary added Bryan Cook from the Chiefs and Kyle Duggar, who from his time in New England proved he can be an effective player in the right system. So they've made a conscious effort to improve.

If the offense is healthy the defense only needs to be average at best. No one in NFL history has lost more games when scoring 30 points than the Bengals the last two seasons. So if they can keep opponents to 28 points or less, they should win a lot of games.

Joe is hungry. The whole organization should be. I think they put it all together, and end up as the 1 seed.

AFC South Champion - Houston Texans (11-6)

I know it's the hot trend to hop off the CJ Stroud bandwagon after his implosion against the Patriots in the playoffs, but I'm just not ready.

I've been a CJ believer, as I said last year after Houston was sitting at 2-3 with an impotent offense.

I still believe in CJ Stroud, which may very well be my biggest flaw as an NFL fan. But I still have the vertical passing game etched in my mind, and think he's a guy I want leading my team even if the results so far this year haven't been what we've expected.

So while the sheep flock to the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence, I'm sticking with CJ until the ship goes down. And not temporarily down after one terrible, horrible, no good very bad game. I'm talking Titanic down.

The David Montgomery signing certainly improves the RB room, and the Boutte trade was a great move to fill Higgins' shoes after the WR room in Houston continues to get bloodied. The offensive line is the biggest question mark. They brought in three new lineman in the offseason, but none of which are names that make the concern of the collective ineptness go away.

The real reason I'm picking Houston is the defense. Duh. The best defense in the league. The defense that ranked 1st in total defense, 2nd in points allowed, 3rd in turnovers, and top eight in every other statistical category I could find on the internet last year, that's returning 10 of 11 starters, with the one newcomer being a Super Bowl champion in Reed Blankenship?

Yeah, that defense.

Like the Bengals with their defense, all CJ and the offense need to do is not puke on themselves like they did in Foxborough to win a ton of games. He may still do it, but he won't do it more than he will. And that'll be enough to fend off the Jags.

AFC West Champion - Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)

I promise you I'm as shocked as you are that this is my pick.

I've long been a Chargers hater, and I've long been proved right. The team that should be, with the quarterback that should be, never is. It's just the way of the world.

But something about this year feels different. Maybe it's that their QB became the newest celebrity couple to get engaged way too fast. Maybe it's that the QB's brother was just signed to the team this week, or that Jim Harbaugh's outlandish praise of Justin Herbert is finally getting to me.

The actual reason (or reasons) are 1) Mike McDaniel coming on board, 2) the offensive line being healthy (for now) and 3) the defense, one of the more underrated defenses in the league, having little to any turnover.

I think it's natural for people to think McDaniel will uncage Justin Herbert, but what I'm most intrigued about is the run game. In McDaniel's last two stops, the 49ers and Dolphins, when things were clicking, the run game in both places was electric, and it didn't matter who was back there. He made Raheem Mostert a household name. Most people reading this probably know the name Elijah Mitchell.

The run is where McDaniel excels, and with a healthy offensive line I think the Chargers will run the ball down opponents' throats. McDaniel also brought along FB Alec Ingold which is an under the radar move.

Herbert won't have to put on the Superman cape he did last year that left Harbaugh red-faced and starry eyed. The defense will be good again, and they'll control the clock on offense. I really like this team*.

*this is regular season only. I can't wait to pick against them in the playoffs.

Wild Card # 1 - Buffalo Bills (11-6)

The AFC East is truly a coin flip. Putting my bias aside, there's no definitive rationale for why the Patriots or Bills should/will win the division, but either way they'll both be playing in January.

Josh Allen is Josh Allen - that's all that needs to be said. James Cook is one more great season away from joining Josh in the "no words necessary" club. I think he'll be there next year.

DJ Moore is the first WR1 the Bills have had since Diggs, when him and Josh tore the league apart for five years. And the offensive line should yet again be a top unit.

But what about the defense? Much of the Bills defense as we know it is no longer there, with the likes of Matt Milano, AJ Epenesa, Taron Johnson, Jordan Phillips, Taylor Rapp, and Jordan Poyer all departing this offseason.

The new regime won't be headed by Sean McDermott, either.

I understand why the Bills let Sean go, but I also think they'll rue the day they did. He was a great coach, and had this team a perennial championship contender. I'm not sold that Joe Brady is an upgrade, and while the offense will likely soar again, since that was Brady's group to begin with, I have major concerns on the defensive side. I don't think Bradley Chubb alone is enough to tip the scales.

Wild Card # 2 - Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

Did you forget about them? While the Chargers and Broncos have crashed the AFC West scene and Mahomes recovers from his ACL tear, the spotlight seems to be pretty far away from Kansas City.

And I bet you that's exactly how they like it.

Call me crazy for thinking the team of the decade, with the cornerstones of the championship run still in place, will bounce back from an unbelievably uncharacteristic year. I can't be the only one.

The lack of a run game should be fixed with Kenneth Walker this year, who showed in the playoffs he can be a bellcow RB. They'll have Rashee Rice for a full season. And they still have one of the better front sevens in the league on defense.

The secondary and offensive line are the question marks, which is why I'm predicting they'll still lose six games. I'll also trust the coaches in KC to mitigate these problems.

Mahomes lost 8 games as the starter last year - five of them were by a field goal, and only one was more than one score. That was a product of the law of averages, as KC was nearly perfect the previous year in one score games. The law says they'll win some more of those, and by doing so be back in the playoffs.

Wild Card # 3 - Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

I know it's crazy to think all seven AFC playoff teams will have 11+ wins and be within one game of each other, but if that's what the model (my brain) predicted, then that's what I believe.

Lamar gets a lot of flack - most of it warranted for his lack of playoff success - but last season he was undeniably hobbled. Countless times during games you would see him hesitate to escape the pocket and do the things we're accustomed to seeing him do with his legs. Assuming he's back to normal health, he'll be a much better player.

The running game as a whole should improve just with the threat of Lamar's legs, but I'm curious how much the loss of Patrick Ricard, who followed Harbaugh to the Giants, will affect the run game, as King Henry thrived in the I formation last year (I tried to find stats to back this up and couldn't - but I swear it's true). I'm not one to doubt Derrick (since I doubted for several years and looked like an idiot), but it's something I'm keeping my eye on. He can't be great forever right?

The defense should be elite, with Madubuike back and Trey Hendrickson brought in on some hooligan shit from the front office. This may be Cincinnati's year for the division, but Baltimore will still be in the dance.

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Teams Just Missing The Playoffs

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7) & Denver Broncos (10-7)

Like I said, there's nine very good teams in the AFC, and only seven get through. So this isn't a knock on either of these teams...I mean I guess it kind of is. But saying a team will win 10 games isn't a Netflix roast type of diss.

The Jags will likely take a step back in the run game without Etienne this year, which means more will be on Trevor's shoulders. He played great down the stretch of last season, but I still lean on the side of overrated when it comes to him. I want to see it for a whole season (since he was garbage the first half of last year), and if I had to put my money on it, I bet his turnover tendencies resurface if he's asked to do more.

The Broncos defense should still be dominant, but even with them dominating most of last year they relied on continual second half/fourth quarter comebacks to win games. Should Bo be better this year? In theory, but playing at a below average level for 2.5 quarters and winning games isn't sustainable. They also have maybe the hardest first two months of schedule as anyone in the league. I can see them making a push down the stretch, but a slow start might put them in a hole too deep to climb out.

Teams That Don't Deserve More Than A Sentence (or Two)

Nine teams finishing with 10+ wins means the other seven are all below .500, most of them well below. They don't deserve much attention, but in case you're waiting to see where your team winds up:

Indianapolis Colts (8-9): Are you going to believe an achilles-recovered Daniel Jones will replicate the 8-game stretch of football we'd never seen from him before? I'm not. I think the rest of the roster is mid, too.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-11): The Steelers didn't go above .500 every year because they were a great roster; they did it because they had a great coach. Now, their roster may be better, but their coach isn't. Mike Tomlin will be the hottest coaching candidate in football after this Steelers' season.

Tennessee Titans (6-11): Speaking of coaches, I love what Tennessee has in place. Salah leading the charge with Daboll coaching the offense? It may not all come together this year, but I like where this team is headed.

Las Vegas Raiders (4-13): This is the same team as last year; no weapons, no O line, no defense outside of Maxx Crosby, and a QB who last year lost his job to Michael Penix, who just lost his job to Tua...I'll give them one more win.

New York Jets (4-13): If I hear another peep about how the Jets might be better than we think this year I'm gonna lose it. The team who's supposed to be rebuilding signed a bunch of past-their-prime veterans in the offseason, and Geno Smith. Maybe they win five games instead of four. Whoop-de-freaking-do.

Cleveland Browns (4-13): I think playing Deshaun was the only option for Cleveland - which is horrifying since it was a terrible option. The rest of the roster is actually pretty solid, but the QB play will be bad enough to offset all of it. Don't be surprised to see three or four starting QBs in Cleveland this year.

Miami Dolphins (2-15): I know this is harsh, but seriously who are they going to beat? They have one of the hardest schedules I've seen in my life, and six of their seven highest paid players in terms of cap hit aren't on the roster. If they beat Vegas in week 1 this win total becomes three. Malik Willis is set up for failure; I just hope this isn't his only shot.