The Gambling Show: Week 9

Season Record: 10-13-1

It was spooky season for us all last week. After a grind back to .500 we're right back to the crawl. That's what you get for betting on two terrible teams to not play terrible (they played worst than terrible) and get bad injury luck with Lamar.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" - Wayne Gretzy - Michael Scott - Me

We keep shooting.

This is a much juicier board than last week. Home dogs, lines that look too short, lines that look too long. There's a great opportunity to forget last week ever happened and get back on track.

Gold Medal Game: Carolina Panthers +3

Boy is this juicy - I'm seeing it at 2.5 on some boards.

The Panthers came out flat last Thursday after laying an historically big egg the week prior. They had a chance to tie the game late in the 4th, but that might have more to do with Green Bay than them.

The Broncos just keep winning, someway, somehow. They've won 4 straight, sit at 6-2, and I could argue they deserved to win like 2 or maybe 3 of those games. I mean their point differential is +7 on the whole season.

Vegas knows what I also know - the Broncos are a bubble waiting to burst.

They rank 30th in total offense; 25th in passing and 26th in rushing.

Defensively, despite a few great showings, they’re 25th; 19th in passing and 25th in rushing.

It's just not a great team. And this is the perfect time for them to fall back to earth.

The Panthers are no defensive juggernaut, but where they really suck is in the run game. They're actually pretty good against the pass (although their secondary is depleted).

Luckily for them, Denver doesn't do either well.

This is also a perfect NFC South spot. Vegas knows it, and the line is confirming it. If they're telling you what to do, just listen.

Silver Medal Game: Chicago Bears -6

I know we usually fade teams off a big win, but this one feels different.

The Bucs are also coming off two big wins, and have the feeling that their season may be saved. They're running the ball down people's throats, and Baker has made $6.5 million the last two weeks (based on his per game earnings on his new contract) by throwing the ball 14 times for 64 yards.

The Bears are currently 2nd in rushing behind the Bucs, so you'd expect a ground game attack. You also expect that game plan to play into the Bucs hands given their last two outings.

But both Tampa and Chicago are stout against the run defensively, ranking 2nd and 4th, respectively.

With Jeffrey Simmons joining the Bears, that unit just got even better. Let's call the run game a wash.

If this game is then decided by the aerial attack, how can you not give Da Bears a massive edge?

Caleb is playing the best ball of his career. Colsten Loveland is coming into his own, as is Luther Burden, and he's not turning the ball over.

The Bucs, even before Baker was injured early, haven't clicked in the passing game all season. Egbuka may play but won't be 100%, and they lack any sort of lethal weapon.

The Bears won't ride high forever; they never do. But I think they continue their flight this week at home. Soldier Field will be rocking.

Bronze Medal Game: Washington Commanders +4.5

You know I'm not gonna have two square picks. And this game is right up our alley.

The Commies are actually playing decent. Not great, but decent. They’ve covered two games in a row, and in both games have found a rhythm offensively in the second half. The defense has been better than expected too.

The Rams are just…not…good? Idk, I’ve been impressed with them maybe twice this year, and certainly not on a consistent basis. They slept walked last weekend, but luckily their opponent was a team incapable of conscious thought.

This has the feeling of a mucky game. In those instances, always take the points. If Washington can hold the Rams to a modest first half, I think this comes down to the wire.

This is a sneaky big game for Washington, as a win would have their NFC East hopes very much alive (which is pathetic to say). They don’t need to win, they just need to keep it within 5. The fact this line already moved a whole point when the public is all over the Rams makes me love it more.