The Gambling Show: Week 8

Season Record: 10-10-1

Season starts today. We've clawed our way back to .500, had two winning weeks in a row, and are seeing the board as well as we have all year. This is the time of year when teams have defined themselves, the what if games have mostly concluded, and we have a large enough sample size to make more informed decisions.

This is the time we get hot. 60% is still within our grasp.

Gold Medal Game: Baltimore Ravens +3

This is assuming Lamar is playing, which all signs point to yes. The Ravens need this one, and they need the bump they'll likely get from their franchise QB.

With him out of the lineup, they've not been able to maintain a sufficient level of offense for 4 quarters (other than Atlanta, which we've already determined was the one game backup QB bump game).

They start hot with the first 15 designed plays, but Snoop just isn't dynamic enough. He lacks Lamar's ability (as does nearly everyone) to make plays out of nothing, and without Lamar's threat of run and pass, Derrick Henry has been limited as teams stuff the box.

With Lamar back, against this Bills defense, I'm seeing fireworks.

No one on Buffalo can keep up with Zay Flowers, who's having a breakout season so far. No one will be able to tackle Derrick Henry with a full head of steam. And no one will be able to contain Lamar Jackson, assuming he's back to full strength Lamar.

The Bills defense is putrid, and is somehow being overlooked because of the greatness of Josh Allen on the other side of the ball.

But I see at least 31 points for Baltimore. At least. That's enough to keep it within a field goal. I say they win.

Silver Medal Game: Indianapolis Colts +10

The Colts had a yard sale this week, shipping off both DeForest Buckner and Quinton Nelson to the 49ers and Seahawks.

And with that, this line moved nearly a field goal. "The Colts are giving up." "They're on to next season." "They're rebuilding."

JT doesn't think so.

Obviously they are, but this is the type of response I think so many fans don't consider when flocking to take the Jaguars.

When teams fire sale, the organization is looking to the future. The fans likely are too.

But the players aren't.

These guys fight for their jobs every week, and this week in particular in Indianapolis, there's a whole bunch of guys that are getting a chance to prove themselves as worthy players in this league.

The competitor in each player, which runs way deeper than any casual fan can even comprehend, will come out fiercer this week than most.

"If they're out here trading the best players, what are they gonna do with me?"

"Oh no one thinks we have a chance? Let's show em."

That type of mentality may not last, as I expect the Colts to fade to oblivion sooner than later, but for one week I think they fight and keep a divisional matchup within 10 points.

I also think this may be JT's last game as a Colt, so he'll want to go out with a bang.

Bronze Medal Game: Los Angeles Chargers +7

I know I know, I'm rolling my eyes too.

But at this time of year we look for spots. And if the winless Chargers can't at least show up after a bye week to defend their home building (even though no one considers Sofi the Chargers home), then it's time for change.

The Rams don't have an elite defensive line; they rank average to below average in pressure rate, no blitz pressure rate, yards before contact on opposing rushes, and rush stuff rate.

Given the Chargers' offensive line issues, that matchup shouldn't be as lopsided on that front as it has been with other opponents.

The Chargers pass defense has actually been decent, and the absence of Davante Adams should mitigate the lopsided-ness of that part of the game too.

But more than the x's and o's this just feels like a spot.

There's never been a team more due for a good outing than this Chargers squad.

I don't think they'll win, but my guess is they'll come out hot, grab an early lead, and slowly watch that lead dwindle until Frat Stafford sets up Brandon McManus for a game winner. Which would easily cover the 7.

Show some pride. Show some fight. Or else it all gets blown up.