The Gambling Show: Week 7

Season Record: 8-10

We're over .500 since week 1. It hasn't been easy, it hasn't been pretty, but we're scrapping. We're crawling back from 10+ point second half deficits to cover both wins last week, and if not for our idiotic belief in the Cowboys as road warriors on Sunday night, we'd be back to .500 for the year.

We're still looking for our first 3-0 week, but winning weeks are winning weeks. There's a few games that pop off the screen this week. Let's see if lucky week 7 is the turning point to our season.

Gold Medal Game: Seattle Seahawks -2.5

I'm a loud Seahawks stan. I don't shy away from it.

Since I predicted them to win the NFC West last year when they were last in preseason odds to do exactly that, to me then predicting them to win the Super Bowl (against the Patriots I may add) before the postseason started, I've been on the Hawks bandwagon. I honestly feel like the conductor.

I saw them live last week in Denver, where they absolutely dominated the game yet came away with a loss. The Hawks more than doubled Denver's yard total, allowed two first downs to the Broncos the entire second half and OT combined, and made Bo Nix the most ridiculed man in the sport for a few days.

The only stat they lost was turnovers, which has been their achilles heel so far this season. They lost the Denver game because of it, and the San Francisco game as well.

This defense is still as good as last year; 1st in total, 1st in passing, and 10th in rushing defense so far this season. They're also tied for 1st in takeaways. They are not losing games because of their defense.

Darnold is getting some help in the run game back with Charbonnet returning for his first game this season, and I think the defense that played against Kenny Walker every day for four years will limit his productiveness.

It's strength on strength; number 1 offense vs. the number 1 defense. At home, in a near-desperation spot, I'll take the Super Bowl champs. Darnold is due for a no turnover game.

Silver Medal Game: Atlanta Falcons +2.5

I'm becoming addicted to betting against the 49ers. This is now the third week in a row doing so, and we're 1-1 so far.

This is just such a Falcons spot. Take away the records and the second half performances of these two teams last week for a second and close your eyes.

The Falcons have lost two games in a row at home, have looked pretty bad doing so, and are now short underdogs in their third straight home game against an NFL bohemeth.

Is that a game they always win, and win convincingly?

I've seen it before, and this is the perfect spot for the Dirty Birds to shock the world and make people second guess them for the third time already this season.

Thanks for humoring me in my thought experiment; now let's dive in a bit more.

Atlanta is a very good run stopping team; their issue on defense is the pass game.

Brock Purdy is playing elite level football, but continues to lose targets every week. I want a Jalen Hurts level investigation for how the 49ers let Mike Evans play football last week. He didn't log a single practice leading up to the game, was nursing his achilles after every catch, and went out with an aggrevated achilles in the second quarter. How was a guy that was clearly injured allowed to dress? Now he'll likely miss more time than if they didn't rush him back.

I digress. But the matchup isn't super favorable for a beat up Niners offense.

The 49ers defense has been great so far, but I like Atlanta's playmakers to make some plays; Michael Penix realized in the second half last week they have more options than Drake London.

San Francisco can't win forever. This feels like the primed spot for their undefeated season to snap.

Bronze Medal Game: Detroit Lions -3

I'm gonna take on a little juice to avoid giving up the hook. But the fact that you can give the hook for basically even money is exactly why I like this game.

The Packers have looked incredible the last couple weeks, dismantling both the Bears and Cowboys in Lambeau. The defense is playing at a high level, and so is Jordan Love despite not having a run game. They get Josh Jacobs (bad guy) back for the first time this season.

The Lions have been humming on offense, but have been equally bad if not worse on defense. They're dead last in the league in total and passing defense, and have just 5 turnovers all year.

The struggling defense will be getting Brian Branch back this weekend, which is a huge morale boost for that secondary who hasn't been able to guard anyone. They also get their center back from IR to help an ailing O line.

I'm not surprised the Lions are favorites, but I am surprised by how much. This is a massive game for Detroit, and I like the fighting Dan Campbell's to come through with a big win. Jordan Love is due for a stinker.