The Gambling Show: Week 6

Season Record: 6-9

Niceeeee.

But not nice. Not nice at all. I thought we had our rhythm back, but last week didn't fall our way. The Saints pick was worse than the scoreboard let on. They had zero chance to win that game. That's on me.

The Seahawks was one I lost some sleep over, as they handed that game away so many times. Yet, if JSN catches that 3rd down ball on the last drive, at worst it goes to OT. I personally think they score a TD there and win in regulation (and cover).

Thank god for the Jets. I hate even saying that.

We're .500 since week one, which isn't terrible given the craziness of this season. Seems like a lot of square public plays are hitting, but as the season progresses and we learn more, the opportunities become greater. Here's three for this week.

Gold Medal Game: Dallas Cowboys +1

What I'm kicking myself most for last week was not picking the Packers. Sharp money was all over it, the line moved multiple points over the week despite the world being on the Bears, and I didn't pull the trigger. Maybe it was the Mike Ditka component, or that I was stupid enough to think maybe Ben Johnson did own the Packers.

But this week is already the perfect fade opportunity. The Cowboys had their patented two-score favorite at-home loss to a winless team just as expectations started to rise, and the Packers dominated who I called the 5th best team in the league last week.

Yet the game is basically a pick 'em.

Dallas' defense is terrible, we know that. But their run defense is their true achilles heel.

Luckily the Packers can't run the ball. Like literally. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing at 60 YPG, 19 yards less than the 31st ranked team.

They literally can't run. So even though Dallas can't stop the run (also dead last), I can't imagine a world where Green Bay shreds them on the ground.

I also give the advantage to Dallas' offense over Green Bay's defense. Off a horrible showing, on national TV, I think Dak rebounds and has a good game. Green Bay also struggles stopping the run, so don't be surprised if Javonte gets involved early and often.

This is a rebound spot for the Cowboys and come back to Earth spot for Green Bay. The line even confirms it.

Silver Medal Game: Cleveland Browns +4

The Browns at home are becoming a borderline auto bet. Especially when they're underdogs (which they usually are cause they suck).

The Ravens had their one-game backup QB bump, another national TV game where players and teams who are overlooked tend to overperform.

Meanwhile, the Browns pooped down their leg against the Jets and epically blew a game they had in their pocket to move to 4-1 for the first time in forever.

I love to pick backup QBs in their first game and fade them in their second. If I did this blog thing for my full time job I'd have the stats to back me up on this, but their performance almost always falls after the first game.

Huntley is 0-2 against the Browns in his career. And the Browns have split the season with the Ravens 4 of the last 5 years.

Even if Lamar was playing I'd take the Browns, but the fact we're getting Huntley on his second start makes it even better. AFC North divisional home dog catching 4 points? Sign me up.

Bronze Medal Game: Washington Commanders +7.5

The Commanders have deservedly been the hot topic of the week after last week's blunder (notice how over the course of the week more and more people have slowly giving more blame on Jayden - they must've read my Monday blog).

That type of mistake, especially when a team was in dire need of win, can presumably knock an entire season off course. Things can get out of hand, locker rooms can be lost, and trust with star players or coaches can be broken.

I tend to believe more times than not in these situations that the professionalism of NFL players shines through.

Every player in the NFL plays for their job every week. Regardless of what's happening around them, every play in every game can affect their future in the league. That's why teams towards the end of the year still play hard when their team is out of contention, and why they don't give a shit about tanking for draft picks.

It's a tall task for the Commanders to rebound from last week and go cross-country to play the best team in the NFL on Monday Night Football.

But this is a prove it game for Washington. While this is just another week in the San Francisco season, this game is the season for Washington. A loss likely puts them in a hole that'll be too deep to climb out. While a win can reset expectations and catapult a run (especially in the dreadful NFC East).

I don't think they win, but I think they put on a worthy effort and keep it within a score. They have to.