The Gambling Show: Week 5

Season Record: 5-7

I know the record still isn’t where we want/need it to be. But last week, and Sunday night in particular, cemented that we’re seeing the board correctly. The process is there, and if not for the Houston defense completely losing their identity in the second half, we’re back to .500.

This week is a weird board, but there’s a few spreads that make you double take. When the game looks obvious, it never is. Reversing the obviousness is where we live.

Gold Medal Game: Seattle Seahawks -3

The 49ers are leading most power rankings (not mine) that came out this week, and understandably so.

Purdy is playing MVP football. Their defense has shut down 3 of 4 opponents. And Kittle, off a torn Achilles less than a year ago, may be playing the best ball of his career.

The Niners are getting their flowers as they should. But the Seahawks, who almost equally deserve them, don’t seem to be.

This team is flying WAY under the radar. They held off the Patriots and demolished the Cardinals with Drew Lock behind center. Then Darnold came back and they’ve picked up right where they left off last year offensively, scoring 30+ in both games.

Without a freak loss in a literal hurricane to the Commanders, the hawks are the undisputed top team in the league.

They haven’t played a worthy opponent when fully healthy. I think they make a statement on Sunday reminding the world who the Super Bowl champs are. I think the line (despite the public being all over SF) tells us that too.

Silver Medal Game: New Orleans Saints +2.5

The Saints are coming off a horrendous outing on Monday night, yet on a short week, against an undefeated team with the scariest defense in the league, they’re catching less than a field goal?

Seems like just enough to lure you into the Viking trap.

Let’s go Kirk Cousins and take over the trap.

The Saints defense is bad, but equally as bad is the VIkings offense, which has scored one TD the last three weeks combined.

Kellen Moore was hired as head coach to concoct a scheme, or even just a couple plays, to match the creativity of Brian Flores. I think the lack of offense finally catches up to the Vikings, and they take their first L of 2026.

Bronze Medal Game: Jets -2

I believe I’ve bet the Jets just one other time in the history of this show. I’m 1-0 doing it.

I hate the Jets. So the fact I’m picking them should indicate how confident I am (they would probably be higher but I can’t put the Jets higher than bronze).

This is a “follow the instructions” play. The Brownies are 3-1, Deshaun Watson is playing his best football since Covid, and the defense is still very good.

The Jets are awful, littered with injuries, and coming off a statistical emasculation in Chicago so bad that I thought the box score had a typo.

And they’re favored?

That’s insane. But unlikely an accident.

I wanted to bet against the Browns no matter who they played this week after they beat Pittsburgh last Thursday. Unfortunately they play the one team I vowed to never bet on.

But when the line came out - and didn’t move - as the bets came flying in for Cleveland, I found myself between a rock and a hard place.

Sometimes Vegas tells you what to do, even when it makes no sense. Even when it physically hurts you. It’s our obligation to listen.