The Gambling Show: Week 4

Season Record: 3-6

It's not where we want to be. It's not where we thought we'd be. But it’s important we don’t lose our way. Trust the process.

Last week were two of the worst losses you can have, and I'll go to my grave thinking we were on the right side of both. The Chargers were +4 on turnover margin and had a 10-point lead deep in the second quarter and somehow didn't keep it within 7. The Vikings didn't take a single snap in the red zone yet scored 23 points in Tampa. Those are tough to swallow.

The beauty is the next week is upon us, and provides some more opportunities. Trust the formula that's made us 60% bettors for five years. We have a lot of football left.

Gold Medal Game: Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Panthers had the whole world believing in them last week - they were one of the most popular bets on the week 3 slate. And they underwhelmed, as they've been known to do.

This week, they catch just a field goal and a hook against the only team in the NFL that's scored 30+ points in every game. In prime time - a spot Carolina is not used to being in.

So naturally, the crowd flocks to Detroit.

And naturally, we don't.

The Lions have been efficient offensively, but defensively not so much. While they've averaged 31 points on offense, they've allowed an average of 32 on defense. That's last in the NFL.

They also rank 31st in the league in total defense, including dead last 32nd in passing.

Meanwhile, Bryce Young is quietly leading the league in passing yards. The Panthers will get a breath of fresh air going from Cleveland in Cleveland, where most offenses seem to struggle, to a home game against a high school squad.

I have no doubt Detroit will score, but I'm equally as confident Carolina will as well. Enough to keep this within a field goal, if not win.

Silver Medal Game: Houston Texans -3

I can't quit the Texans. And for good reason.

Last year the Texans also started 0-3, and were assumed by many to be dead.

But not by I.

I called Houston my dark horse to win the AFC when they sat at 2-3, and bet on them like 4 or 5 weeks in a row - many of which ended profitable.

I'm ready to go back to the well. And this is the perfect spot; at home against Dallas, who just lost in heartbreaker halfway across the world.

It'll be strength on strength, with Dallas' offense going up against the Houston defense. For sake of argument, let's call that a wash.

CJ Stroud wasn't good last week, but the first couple weeks he was. He gets Nico Collins back this week, and his individual and the overall team statistics with Nico on the field vs. not is night and day.

Dallas can't stop anyone. The Ravens should've scored 40 on them last week if not for a goal line stand. The Commanders with Jayden had 200+ yards of offense in the first half before his injury, and the Giants imposed their will on them on opening weekend.

The Cowboys rank 31st in rush defense and 30th in total defense. If the Texans can get anything on the ground, CJ won't have to throw the ball 50 times. If that happens, they'll score enough to allow their defense to win this game for them.

Bronze Medal Game: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

I'm breaking one of my gambling rules by betting on the international game. Typically there are too many variables with how players react, jet lag, etc. that scares me away.

But I liked the Colts a lot when I saw this line, and as the support/bets pour in for the Commanders, I couldn't help myself.

Marcus Mariota 30-pieced the Super Bowl champs last week as the Commandos upset the Seahawks, but that's exactly the Marcus Mariota way.

Mariota and the Commanders are 3-0 in Marcus' first start of the season; he's had at least one start in each of the three years he's been in DC.

In Mariota's seven other starts last year, the Commanders were 1-6.

This is the classic backup QB trajectory. They get the first game bump, play well, give the fanbase hope, then quickly remind the world why they weren't a starter to begin with.

Washington's run defense has been surprisingly good this year, but the pass defense is equally as bad. I'm expecting Shane Stiechen to channel his inner Ben Johnson and throw the ball early when the Commanders expect run.

If Daniel Jones shows early life, JT will be patiently waiting to pounce.

Indy's defense finally got some confidence back last week. I like they win comfortably and Washington comes back to Earth.