The Gambling Show: Week 3

Season Record: 2-4 (2-1 last week)

Ok, our feet are wet. The old saying of "the first one is the hardest" reigned true for us this year, as the Chargers meltdown to move us to 0-4 on the year had me in places I hope I don't return to anytime soon.

But our two sharpest plays of the year came through on Sunday and Monday night, and the tide has turned. We're seeing the board they way we should - and expect to - and have ourselves grounded in the 2026 season.

One week at a time, one game at a time. Week 1 never happened. Keep repeating this to yourself and we'll be good.

Gold Medal Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5

Desperate vs. not desperate. That's really what this one boils down to.

We've all heard the phrase the hungry dog runs faster, and I'd be hard pressed to find a hungrier dog in the NFL than Baker Mayfield. The Tampa media must be having a field day with Baker after two of his worst starts as a Buc in the two games immediately following his $165 million pay day (I don't follow Tampa Bay sports media so I can't confirm). Not that I think Baker listens, but he knows there's pressure to perform.

Baker's best with a chip on his shoulder, and although I'm sure he tried to use that chip against his former employer last Sunday, that chip grew even bigger this week.

He's also very good against the blitz in his career, which we know Brian Flores will bring plenty of.

The line opened at +2.5 and immediately jumped down to +1.5, and even with Kyler coming back it didn't move from there. With most people on the side of the 2-0 team, that tells you all you need to know.

Silver Medal Game: Los Angeles Chargers: +7.5

I can't sit here and say you rolling your eyes at this pick is unwarrented. I get it.

But this is another example of desperation vs. possible complacency. Maybe even more so than the gold medal game.

The Bills have been unstoppable this year, especially on offense. They lead the league in points and trail only the Chiefs in yards through 2 games, and one of those games was on the road in Houston.

Meanwhile, there's no bigger dumpster fire in the NFL than the Chargers. Losing two home games to teams that combined for 6 wins last year, and both in pretty convincing fashion, has everyone and their mother hopping off the bandwagon.

So when one team is this good, and another this bad, and the whole world is flocking to the team that's good, what do we do?

We go against the grain.

The Bills defense is bad, so if there's a team to get back on track offensively against it's them. The barage of mistakes the Chargers made last week cannot be sustainable for a professional football team, and these guys get paid too much and have too much pride to avoid embarrassment for a third straight week.

I'm saying they're going to win (although it wouldn't shock me if they did). They just need to not get blown out.

Bronze Medal Game: New York Giants -2.5

Whether or not Jaxson Dart played the whole game or not, there was no way the Giants were covering in LA on Monday. And it has nothing to do with the Giants - they were just the unlucky bunch that played the Rams at the wrong time.

Jameis isn't great, but he's not as bad as he was on Monday. Backup QBs seldom play their best when thrust into action unexpectedly, but they do often see a small bump in their first start with a full week of reps with the ones.

The Titans almost beat the Eagles last week, which has people believing they may not be the worst team the NFL has ever seen. But that game was played on literal molten lava, with field temps surpassing 150 degrees. So that has to account for some kind of home field advantage (they still lost by 4).

The Giants pay Jameis near the top of the backup QB market for a reason. That reason is to beat shitty teams like the Titans at home by at least a field goal.