Divisional Round Takeaway: Even On Football's Greatest Stage, It All Comes Down To Fundamentals

I tend to get myself too hyped for weekends like these. I think about the great games that've happened in the past, watch YouTube videos of the best divisional round games of all time (yes, I did that Saturday afternoon), and assume that the four games that'll devour my weekend will be more than worth the hours spent consuming.

This year rocked my ass off. All four games were suspenseful. All four had moments of jaw-dropping, "holy shit" screams, and laughs to your friends because you couldn't believe that you were watching what you were watching.

And all four were decided, in part, by fundamentals, or lack there of. So after a weekend of games that was just too good to talk about one, let's run through them all, and remind ourselves, that even at the highest level, fundamentals matter.

Chiefs/Texans

"It's a three phase game".

One of the great cliches of coach talk, one that I and many others love to say to sound smart about the game, wasn't more true than it was Sunday in Arrowhead.

The Texans outplayed the Chiefs. More first downs, more yards. Better on third down, controlled time of possession, and committed no turnovers. The defense allowed just 36% of Chiefs third downs and 212 total yards, well below their season average and nearly half of what they hung on them in their week 16 meeting.

But it's a three phase game.

The Texans lost this game on special teams. The opening kickoff was taken back 60 yards plus a penalty to give Mahomes and the offense their first snap at the 13 yard line. The defense bowed up, but was down 3-0.

Kai'mi Fairbairn then banana sliced a 55 yarder (which was offside on KC but uncalled) to cost Houston another three. That's a tough one to hold a grudge on in those conditions, but nonetheless he missed. The extra point that would've tied the game wasn't so hard to hold a grudge on, and was a massive momentum killer after Houston stormed 82 yards to open the third quarter. We're up to 7 points on the counter.

Don't forget the blocked FG that would've made it an eight point game with a minute and a half left, which brings us to a grand total of 10 costed points by the Texans special teams unit.....in a nine point game.

There's always a game or two in the playoffs that's decided by special teams - my mind immediately goes to the Packers-49ers game three years ago in snowy Lambeau - but it always happens.

And of course it would happen against the Chiefs. This team has the "it factor". The right plays will be made at the right time. Sometimes it's flashy; Mahomes will throw a 3rd down TD to Travis Kelce as he's halfway to the ground after Al-Shaair makes another coverage mistake. And sometimes it's as simple as making all your kicks when the other team isn't.

This team doesn't beat themselves, you gotta beat them. And the Texans did, in two phases.

But it's a three phase game.

Commanders/Lions

This game stunned me. Sure, I gave out the formula for the Commanders to win in my preview post which they must've read (60-yard McLaurin bomb, Jayden beating you through the air, etc. etc.), questioned this Lions defense's legitimacy after one good game, but I didn't think it would actually happen. I didn't think the one team I was confident putting up points would put up 31 and get run out of their building.

There was so many things wrong with this game if you're Detroit. But perhaps the most glaring was the most fundamental of fundamentals; tackling.

The Lions had 16 missed tackles on Saturday, good for a 19% missed tackle rate, their worst/highest of the season. Idk the relative scale of missed tackle rates in the NFL, but 19% feels crazy high. For perspective, in week 18 against the Vikings when all the concerns of this defense disappeared, they had three missed tackles (6% missed tackle rate), and had six games this year with five or less.

Oof. Turns out having starting-caliber defensive players play on your defense matters. That week 18 just might've been more about the Vikings than it was the Lions. You can't win games if you can't tackle.

And tackling was just the beginning of the Lions' uncharacteristic night. Jerod Goff had four turnovers, including a pick six. After going 2 for 2 to start the game, the trick plays finally bit them in the ass to account for their fifth team turnover.

And maybe worst of all, when the seesaw really tilted in the Commanders favor, the Lions lined up 12 guys on defense on fourth down, ball at the five, down three points.

Brady said it on the broadcast how Belichick preached about not beating yourselves. I mentioned how the Chiefs have perfected it, similar to how New England did for years. It's not a coincidence we talk about Chiefs games similar to old Patriots games, where it doesn't always feel like they won, but rather the other team lost.

The 12 men on the field was the Lions losing the game. It was their chance to get the ball back down three, and who knows what happens. We'll never know, cause we never got the chance to see. The Commanders finished that drive two plays later and the rest was history.

Jayden Daniels was insane in this game. Going to Detroit, where rabid fans took out second mortgages for a nosebleed seat, in the frenzy of Ford Field putting up 350 total yards of offense, taking no sacks and having no turnovers as a rookie is nuts. As a ten-year vet that'd be nuts.

Good for this dude and this team. I'll have more on them later this week.

Eagles/Rams

I've heard a lot of hate about snow games today and I won't stand for it. You don't want the players to slip and slide and not be able to play their best and have the game affected by external factors? Go play basketball.

Or if you're the Rams, win more games so you play in LA. Snow games happen so infrequently, just enjoy them when they do and shut up. They tend to favor the home team, too, which is kind of the point.

While both teams struggled in the conditions, the Cali-kid Rams made the bigger mistakes. Kyren and Strafford's fumbles, on back to back drives to start the fourth quarter, I don't think happen in perfect conditions. The three drops the Rams had, all in momentum changing situations, may not have either.

But that's football. The conditions were the same for both sides, and one team caught/held onto the ball and the other didn't. Fundamentals. Catch the ball.

Can you say the Rams defense outside of two plays held Saquon in check? Maybe if the two plays didn't combine for 140 yards and 14 points, but it's true. For most of this game Kyren was the more effective down to down back. He kept the Rams ahead of the chains, while Philly for most of the middle portion of this game was stuck in second/third and long. But I can't go as far as to say they played well with the numbers the Eagles put on them.

Yet they still almost won. I wanted the Stafford late game comeback. It felt inevitable and simultaneously impossible. How the Eagles hadn't blown that game open was beyond me. Then they kind of did, and almost blew it. This was a sneaky great game, and if the Rams caught a few of those third down drops and had better control of the ball, they'd be playing next week.

Bills/Ravens

I love when games this big live up to the impossible hype that surrounds it. Everyone had this game circled, it was the A block on every TV show last week, with the constant debate of which team and which QB had more on the line.

Josh and the Bills played the clean game we're still getting used to seeing but have grown accustomed to all year. Control the ground game, run more than you pass, and don't turn the ball over. Find your checkdowns, get your five yards and live to fight another down. It's the reason they're in this spot, and why Josh in my opinion is the MVP; decision making. It's not forcing the ball downfield. It's not pitching the ball backward as you're getting stuffed at the goal line. It's new age Bills football.

The Ravens and Lamar on the other hand fell back into their postseason ways in the first half. Lamar made the mistakes Josh used to but no longer makes. He tried forcing the ball downfield for an INT, although that feels like a miscommunication on someone's part, and then tried to play hero ball when surrounded by four Bills in the backfield that caused a fumble that flipped this game's whole script.

And the turnover woes didn't end there. With the Bills on their heels in the fourth, Mark Andrews fumbled in plus territory with a chance to take their first lead since the first quarter. All the momentum that Baltimore gained in the second half was gone in the blink of an eye.

We can talk about the dropped two-point conversion. We can talk about how Baltimore finally stuck to the run in the second half, but in the biggest moments - two-point conversions - threw twice. We can talk about how they were 1/5 on two-point conversions this season, with the one successful attempt coming on the lone designed run.

But the Ravens lost this game because of turnovers. If they played clean, they might have won by double digits. If they play this game ten more times, they probably beat Buffalo more than they lose. They have the better roster, on both offense and defense.

But Buffalo didn't beat themselves and Baltimore did. Lamar should get some flowers for performing and coming up clutch in the fourth quarter, but he picked a bad time to have his first multi-turnover game of the season, and will have to wait another year to overcome his postseason demons.

This weekend was awesome. It had Goliath get outplayed by David and still smush him. It had the massive upset. It had a snow game, and an all-time classic.

And they all came down to a few plays. This time of year, it usually does.