Championship Sunday Hype Blog - As If You Need It

After the incredible drama and intrigue of last weekend, I woke up this weekend feening for more, feening for what was. And while the barrenness of Saturday came and went, the hope is Sunday will be enough to satisfy our fix.

We have two awesome games on deck, two games with so much on the line. We have the behemoth, that's looking for NFL history by becoming the first three-peat champion in league history. We have the challenger, that despite consistent regular season success against said behemoth, has fallen short in the playoffs in every opportunity. There's the been-there-done-that team, looking to make its third Super Bowl appearance in seven years. And the new kid on the block, the Cinderella story, that no one expected to be here, but no one wants to play.

Let's hope this weekend can match last. Here's why I think it can.

Eagles/Commanders

As impossible as this feels to say about a rookie, there's nothing Jayden Daniels can do at this point that would surprise me. Time after time in the regular season he's come up clutch in the last minutes of the game. Impressive, but that was the regular season. He then went on the road to Tampa in the playoffs and did the same thing; led a four-minute game-clinching drive for Washington's first playoff win in 19 years, looking like he's done it a hundred times before. More impressive. Then last week, in one of the most hostile environments in football, against the 15-win Lions, dropped 38 (they had a pick six), and dragged Detroit's asses back across eight mile (shoutout Lyckety), all while committing zero turnovers in the process. Just insane.

So as easy as it would be to say the Eagles are clearly the better team roster-wise on both sides of the ball, better than both the Bucs and Lions, especially on defense, and that Jayden hasn't gone up against this type of defense, or this type of atmosphere in the playoffs, it doesn't seem that easy to me.

I'm starting to drink the Commander Kool-Aid, and it tastes great (clearly the original red flavor). It has that addictive chemical, the same one that makes it impossible to only eat one Dorito, hypnotizing your brain to put your hand back in the bag for more without your concious approval.

I absolutely think Washington can win this game, how could I not?

This team put up 36 points against the vaunted Eagles defense a month ago, the most any opponent scored against Philly all season. And that was with five turnovers. They'll need to cut those down, if not out completely (which they've done so far this postseason), if they want to win this game, cause Kenny Pickett won't be behind center. Jalen is back, which raises another question; how back is he?

We saw the second half against the Rams where he was hesitant if not unwilling to run. We saw Philly's offense become stagnant during that time, and outside of the Saquon 78-yard TD be rendered useless. Jalen is most dangerous when he has his legs to escape the pocket and scramble, or threat the read option. If he's not able to effectively do either, this offense, which outside of Saquon has been ho-humming the last month or so, becomes dummied down and much easier to defend.

Washington's defense has been better since my noted concerns (again, they must read the blog), but have struggled in their two meetings against Philly and Saquon, specifically with big plays. But I specify big plays because in both meetings, much like the Rams did last week, they held him in check for the majority of the game. Last month, Saquon tallied 150 yards on 29 carries, with one of those good for 68 yards. Take that out, and he averaged 2.9 YPC. Wanna say that was cause Kenny Pickett was in and the Commanders loaded the box? Sure, say it, but that doesn't play in their first meeting, when the story was similar. With less than five minutes remaining, Saquon had 23 carries for 77 yards, or 3.3 YPC. His last three rushes of the game, good for two TDs and an "easy" Eagles victory, combined for 69 yards (nice). In both meetings, the Commanders were a few plays from handing Saquon two of his quietest games of the season.

I get the argument that close ain't no cigar, and these "almost", "could've", and "basically" stats are bullshit since every game of every season can play the what if game. I also understand that's Saquon and the Eagles, that they wear you down waiting for their opportunity to break it open on one missed gap assignment. But my point is, I'd be more concerned if the Eagles killed the Commanders by death of a thousand cuts in their previous matchups. The fact that both games came down to big plays gives me greater hope, or belief, that the third time around those plays won't happen. And if they don't happen, it'll come down to Jalen's arm. And no Eagles fan feels great about that.

In the Wild Card preview, I picked the Bucs over the Commanders, stating I'll take the better team over the better player. In the Divisional preview, I picked the Lions despite my concerns of their defense going up against Jayden. I'm not going to let Jayden make me look like a fool again.

Or am I.

I picked the Eagles to make the Super Bowl before the playoffs started. I awarded them my highest confidence rating in our friends' playoff pool. I think they would've beaten Detroit if they played them this week, and I don't think there's an NFC team that matches up to them top to bottom. I made a case for Washington, and if even one of you in here switched your pick after reading it, I've done my job.

But I'm sticking with Philly. I think the loss of Sam Cosmi, Washington's best OL and one of the better guards in football, who ranks fifth among all OL in run block win rate this year, is huge, and Jalen Carter will have a field day lining up against a back up. I don't think Washington will have much if any presence of a run game outside of Jayden. The advantages in the trenches, which is where playoff games are determined, significantly favor Philly on both sides. I think the turnover, or turnover-less streak ends for the Commanders. I think Philly's defense is so many standard deviations better than Detroit, and the missed tackles the Commanders took advantage of last week won't happen again. I'm banking on Jalen to be healthy enough to run, and how could I not bank on at least one breakout play for Saquon. My prediction is Washington will have the ball in its hands with a chance to win at the end, but the black magic meets its kryptonite.

I'm willing to let Jayden prove me wrong again. And newsflash, if he does, I'll pick against him in New Orleans too. Give me the birds back in the big game. I do think it will be close.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles 27, Washington Commanders, 21

Chiefs/Bills

Does this game still have the same allure as previous years? Has the Chiefs postseason reign over Buffalo watered down the matchup against the two best QBs in football on the sport's second biggest stage? Is a rivalry truly a rivalry if one team wins all the games that don't matter and the other wins all the games that do?

I think in some ways the answer is no (and yes, my questions kind of contradict themselves). It's harder to get up for this game when the underlying feeling is a level of certainty that KC will come out victorious. That we've seen the movie so many times, with the same ending, that this Sunday feels more like a re-run than a sequel (or whatever part four of a series is called). I want to be excited for this game, I want to believe the Bills will win, but is it realistic?

This is maybe the best Chiefs defense they've had in their seven-year run. They keep the offense in every game, and in the games' biggest moments, like last week against Houston, unleash their game wreckers to seal the deal. Oh, and the second best QB of all time anchors the "weak unit" of this team.

On the flip side this isn't the most talented Bills team we've seen. This isn't the high-flying vertical offense they've had in the past, with big plays at the ready and Superman at QB. This isn't a defense stuffed with pro-bowl veterans like we've seen in prior seasons.

But this team is somehow better. They've found the best version of themselves, and have become the engine churning, stay ahead of the sticks, boring at times type of team that doesn't beat themselves and stays in control. Hmm, sounds familiar.

The Bills have turned into the Chiefs. The team that doesn't make mistakes, allows the game to come to them, and makes their opponent beat them. I've talked at nauseum about how the Chiefs play that style, and that's why they win. And after years of being the culprit of the Chiefs way of winning, the Bills have become the same. And that's why they have a chance.

In my opinion this is the best chance the Bills have had to beat the Chiefs. Josh knows he doesn't need to be Superman, much like Mahomes doesn't and isn't for the majority of their games. He knows if he doesn't hand the other team the ball, their defense will keep them in the game. And he knows, deep down, if/when he absolutely has to, he can make the play to win it.

I think this game will come down to the wire; every Chiefs/Bills game in the last three years (five games) outside of their week 11 showdown in Buffalo has been decided my less than a touchdown. And while the confidence I have in the Chiefs and Mahomes in particular in those moments can't be topped, my confidence Josh and the Bills play within themselves and don't shoot themselves in the foot is also at all time highs.

Part of me still believes the Bills are in their rebuild year and not ready for a Super Bowl, and this year is the gap year between their contending window. A bigger part of me believes the Chiefs are inevitable and will win their third straight championship no matter how well or bad their opponent, or themselves, play, and that watching this game is a waste of time.

But that's exactly why it's the Bills' time. The underdog team in the underdog city that all of America is pulling for, without any real expectation of them pulling it off. It's what this team was built for. I won't say if not now then when, because I know they'll be more opportunities. But why not now?

This is a fan pick. Let's go Buffalo.

Pick: Bufflo Bills 23, Kansas City Chiefs 20