The Patriots' Schedule Is Out And 10 Wins Has Never Looked More Realistic

I know it's cool and hip to complain about the schedule release, that it's too early and too far away from the season and no one cares, or that they drag it out over multiple days and weeks, blah blah blah. Stop it. Don't pretend like you have other things to care about, or roll your eyes at people like me that don't have anything better to do but get excited about a basically made up hype fest. The schedule release provides a new light, a roadmap to endless possibilities. It's the first step in turning hope into reality.

Wednesday night, I studied. I frantically looked at the schedule and marked down wins and losses, complained about tough back to backs and a second straight week 14 bye, and saw the future. I'd like to share that future with you now.

To preface, these are not predictions, I'm choosing to save those for my season previews in August. Rather this is the path, the way forward, for the New England Patriots to win 10 games and be in the 2025 playoffs.

Gotta Win The Opener

I was fully prepared to pencil week 1 in as a loss prior to the release. We're essentially a brand new organization, rising from the ashes like Dumbledore's Phoenix, and things might not click right away. We have a completely revamped roster, a slew of new coaches, and a new playbook and teammates that may have some rust to dust off. Against any worthy week 1 opponent I would've considered competence a win.

But the Raiders are a worse version of the Patriots. They also have a new coaching staff, new QB, and a slew of new starters. They're revamping their organization just like us.

So what was a penciled in loss becomes a big one. We gotta take care of business at home, and by doing so set the tone for the season. Bury the Raiders and show the world the offseason hype was warranted. (Record: 1-0)

2-1 The Rest of September

Week 2 in Miami sounds like nightmare fuel to a Patriots fan based on our history. We've played Miami in the first two weeks of the schedule 4 of the 5 seasons since Brady left, and are 1-3 and 0-3 the last three (shoutout Cam Newton). But week 2 in a vacuum doesn't matter. We follow Miami up with Pittsburgh (ass) and Carolina (more ass) both at home.

I'll hear zero Pittsburgh Steelers fan talk. Whether they're good or bad, have Aaron Rodgers as their QB (which doesn't change my opinion on them whatsoever after what Aaron's produced the last three seasons) or Mason Rudolph, the Steelers never beat the Patriots. We beat them in Pittsburgh two years ago with Bailey Zappe en route to 4-13. We beat them with Mac Jones the year prior en route to 8-9. And Brady owned them for 20 years.

Beat the Steelers, and you have Panthers at home. That’s a win. Regardless, we win two of those three and we're sitting pretty. (Record: 3-1)

We'll lose to Buffalo in Buffalo on Sunday night. Tough spot. (Record: 3-2)

Four Game Win Streak

I'm not crazy for thinking this, our schedule is a joke. The Saints are gonna be starting Tyler Shough (??) and then we go back to Tennessee where one of the best coaches in football definitely still holds a grudge and you don't think we'll beat a rookie QB?? (Record: 5-2)

Then we come back home to play the Joe Flacco (??) led Browns and the Falcons? The Falcons won't be a cakewalk, but after feeling the momentum of a three-game win streak for the first time since 2022 and the Falcons coming off playing the pretty boy Dolphins and looking forward to a trip to Germany do you really think we won't kick them in the mouth?? The Falcons getting five prime time games is insane but that’s another story. (Record: 7-2)

Beat The New York Teams

People say I'm a homer, but I think I'm pretty realistic.

Coming off a four-game heater, I can imagine a loss to Tampa on the road. Tampa's very good and that's a weird place to play. That's fine, that's why we start hot.

I'll go ahead and call week 12 against the Bengals a loss too. If we hadn't beaten them last year I'd think differently, but I don’t think Burrow lets that happen again.

So all we need to do before our bullshit week 14 bye is take care of the two New York teams which for some reason are both on prime time and we'll be 9-4. The Jets worry me zero. At home, Thursday night, I may not even watch.

The Giants are also at home Monday night. Our guys will spend Thanksgiving at home with the extra day of rest, fuel up for one more tilt before the week off, and handle the Giants. The Giants will be fresh off one of the craziest two-month gauntlets I’ve ever seen (Philly, Denver, Philly, SF, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit in a row) and their season will be toast. Their week 14 bye is polar opposite from ours, since we'll be ready to unload before we rest while they can't wait to not have to play losing football for a week. Boston > NY again (Celtics aren't dead yet). (Record: 9-4)

Finish Average

Obviously this isn't my hope, but I said I'd find 10 wins, and with four to go I already found nine.

I give us a chance at home against the Bills off the bye and them coming off a Bengals tilt, but I won't expect it. Then we have the Ravens in Baltimore, where they dominate in the regular season. They’ll be off three straight division matchups and two against Cincy, but this is a loss.

Then we have the Jets again, so there's 10. Depending on playoff seeding we can beat the Dolphins at home if we need to, but we'd probably be the 6 or 7 seed regardless at this point. 1-3 after the bye wouldn't feel great heading into the playoffs, but you won't see me complaining about heading into the playoffs any type of way.

--

After looking through this along with most other teams in the league, what excites me the most is that the Patriots are no longer a penciled in win on the schedule like they've been the last few years. How I look at the Saints is how most people looked at the Patriots recently, and while they may still do that, I sleep well knowing they're in for a rude awakening.

The Patriots have a last place schedule that includes the Raiders, Giants, and Titans. We also have the NFC South for our scheduled NFC foe. It's a pretty easy schedule. And we're so much better than last year. I still hate the week 14 bye, but it does line up right before our toughest back-to-back of the season. We have three prime time games, and two of them the NFL was nice enough to give us opponents that will make us look good.

The schedule coming out didn't change my opinion of this team, I've been saying it for weeks now. But it did give us the roadmap to relevancy. A pipedream now has an instruction manual, and the road to prosperity is clear.

The Patriots are back.