The NFC is Drunk

While the AFC playoff picture is becoming increasingly interesting with each starting QB to break a bone, the NFC is another beast. Everything we thought we knew just TWO WEEKS AGO, now seems fallacy. I love the NFL.

Forget the one seed, the Eagles aren’t even a lock for their own division. In an expected “letdown spot”, if you can call losing to the best roster in football a letdown, Philly got dismantled in the Linc Sunday, relinquishing their stranglehold on the NFC conference and East, now with just a one game advantage for each, and one loss this Sunday, in which they’re again three-point dogs, from falling to the fifth seed. This league is tough, man. Especially when you don’t play defense, which Philly hasn’t done much of since Week 7. Allowing 29.4 points per game since then, including 34 and 42 against Buffalo and San Fran at home the last two weeks, there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of this team’s long term goals heading into the final stretch. Dallas is playing elite offense. San Francisco obviously is as well. Detroit is a big shaky these days, but can drop a 30 burger in their sleep. These are the teams Philly is going up against in January, and at this moment I don’t see the Eagles stopping any of them. Especially if they don’t have the Linc at their disposal. The Darius Shaq Leonard signing won’t hurt. They need to beat Dallas this weekend.

The Niners are and should be the NFC favorite. Home field is nice but not necessary for these guys. Dominating the line of scrimmage travels. CMC travels. CMC blowing up the defensive game plan after juking each member of the opposing team’s front seven into oblivion on the first drive of the game, travels. And Deebo Samuel in space, George Kittle anywhere, and Brandon Aiyuk’s crossing routes, travel. Did I forget the addition of Chase Young to the already loaded defense, who since the addition of Young has been allowing 12 PPG? They travel too. The Niners have yet to be beat when fully healthy, and you can see why if you watched last night. There’s not one thing of theirs you can take away. And they can take away your one thing. No one’s sleeping on this team if they were before yesterday. If anything, they’re up all night thinking about them.

Who are the Lions? Yeah they’re 9-3, and they’re the Lions, so let’s remind ourselves that this season is already a win for the city of Detroit. But Lions fans have come to expect things from this team. Real things, like a win or two in January. They expect them to win games they’ve habitually lost, attempting one week at a time to destroy the “Same Old Lions” narrative. While the record shows that, the play on the field as of recent certainly has not. A should’ve been loss at home to the Bears (a game the “same old Lions” definitely would’ve lost). A blowout loss (final score is not indicative) at home on Thanksgiving to the Packers. And an almost 21-point blown lead against the hapless Saints? That’s not a molding-into-form-down-the-stretch confidence building run. The defense is giving old Lions (that’s young person lingo), giving up an average of 30 PPG to the Chargers, Bears, Packers, and Saints the last four weeks. pukes. The offense seemed fixed for half a quarter yesterday, but then what? Five punts, two field goals, and a 26-yard TD “drive” hand-wrapped by Derek Carr? That’s nothing to write home about. They had no turnovers, which was Goff’s M.O. the last few weeks, and if they can stay clean moving forward, they should be fine. But something about these guys has me nervous. No one in Detroit should be too comfortable right now.

The Seahawks’ Vaseline-covered wild card lock opened up quicker than an unblocked Micah Parsons got to Geno Smith to ice last Thursday’s game. As yours truly predicted on Fundamentally Unsound, the Seahawks will finish under .500 this season. At 6-6, with a road trip to San Francisco on Sunday, a team that stuffed them like Aunt Joan’s famous turkey on Thanksgiving night, the Seahawks are staring 6-7 right down the throat. Once 6-7, they host the Eagles, where they will fall to 6-8. They could finish with three straight wins to finish 9-8, but my money will be on an 8-9 finishing record and a missed playoff appearance. Geno will be forced to write back after a fun two years.

Could you imagine if Kirk Cousins didn’t get hurt? If the potent offense he orchestrated was paired with the now extremely competent defense directed by the equally ostracized and brilliant Brian Flores? I might only have the Niners ahead of them in my hypothetical NFC power rankings. Since the Chiefs game in week 5 (at the time I said this team looks like a playoff team and was laughed at, listen to the pod), the defense has allowed more than 21 points ONCE. The problem now is Josh Dobbs has entered microgravity with no sign of finding his footing. I’m not one to shame a lifelong journeyman who lucked into a starting job in large part due to a front office tank job and small part to a Call of Duty addiction of a certain Phoenix QB, only to be traded and started in the same week to a desperate and talented team halfway across the country and deemed as the savior. That’s not me. He’s been awesome. But he is coming back to life, and with him are the team’s playoff hopes. My faith in the defense is currently outweighed by my lack of faith in the offense, which is subject to change. It won’t be easy to win three more games, which they’ll need to do. Lions potentially resting in Week 18 might be their only hope. I got the Purple People Eaters eating on their couch on wild card weekend.

The Packers and Rams will make the playoffs. The Packers would be in today if the season ended, along with the Vikings. The Packers pick is as much to do with their schedule as their play, which is a lot. Jordan Love is playing as good of quarterback as anyone in the league, throwing for over 900 yards and no turnovers in the Pack’s three game win streak. And he’s done so against the Lions and Chiefs, two of the better defenses in football (Lions less and less each week, see above). Their four, yes four, rookie weapons, along with Christian Watson who’s turning into December Christian Watson of last year, are all exceeding expectations, and they still have a solid ground game especially if Aaron Jones returns. And their schedule is a joke. Giants this week. Win. Bucs at home and Panthers. Win, Win. Minnesota on the road we’ll call a loss, even though I feel like the Packers and Vikings always split, and round it out with Chicago in Lambeau. How are they not winning four games the way they’re playing? I’m sure they won’t cause the NFL is crazy and makes no sense, but even three may do the trick. Pencil in the Pack.

The Rams might have the best offense in the NFC behind San Francisco. They’ve put up 37 and 36 points, respectively, since Kylo Ren Williams returned (how is that not his nickname).  Frat Stafford is slinging it like the bras he used to fling at Chi O functions. I mentioned Kyren. Puka Nakua is taking all his unused testosterone out on opposing defenses. And Cooper Kupp only produced 57 yards in those two aforementioned games combined. A top five (maybe) receiver in football is quiet and you’re dropping 36 against a top three defense? This team is scary. A big test against the Ravens this week (love the +7) is followed by three VERY winnable games. Let’s assume they sit at 9-7 entering Week 18 against the Niners. The way San Fran is playing they’ll likely be within shot for the one seed and will have something to play for, and in that case LA loses and is at 9-8. Ahead of Seattle, and my prediction Minnesota, it’s the Rams going back to the postseason.

Who knows, in two more weeks’ time this will probably be wrong again. As David Attenborough has tough us all, it’s when you feel most confident that the danger is closest (not sure he said that but picture it in his voice). Seattle felt comfortable. So did Minnesota. Philly probably did too. Now they’re head to head with their hunter. I can’t wait for this to shake out.