The Go-To, Super Duper Guide to Super Bowl 58

To answer your question, yes.

As excited as I am for this game, I’m equally if not more sad about it being the last football game that means anything (sorry, UFL) for seven months. That I have to find something else to do on Sundays, Monday nights, and Thursday nights while Mother Nature is screaming at me to stay inside or go on a plane to somewhere where the sun actually shines.

I’m sad football is almost over.

But before it’s over, the best game of the year is played. Whether it’s my team or not (most of my life it was), this game never fails to get the juices going. The buildup has started, and whether it’s the first or fortieth time I hear the same question asked and the same two or three versions of an answer given, this week, for this game, I soak it in. Cause it’s all we got left.

So here’s my preview, my what’s what on the big game, what I, and you, should expect come Sunday night.

CMC Will Eat

CMC's gonna get the rock early and often. Over, and over, and over again.

This won't be the Ravens getting cute and avoiding the very thing that got them to this point. They'll know the so-called weak spot on KC's defense is the run game, and will let the best RB in the league eat. They'll probably feed him seconds, and assuming he's still hungry, prep a dessert spread too. There's no reason McCaffrey shouldn't get a ton of touches. There's no reason he shouldn't be plan A in the prep notes. On the ground, through the air, maybe even throwing passes, get used to seeing the ball in 23's hands.

Isiah Pacheco Will Also Eat

I don't care who's behind center. If the Chiefs want to win they'll need the man who runs like a rhinoceros with a bone to pick to take out some safari buggies. They're most effective when they mix the run and pass, and if this postseason is any indicator they shouldn't shy away from trying. Green Bay and Detroit put up 136 and 182 yards on the ground, respectively, against the Niners in San Francisco (Detroit had nearly 150 at halftime). Why shouldn't KC? A surprisingly run happy team, KC would prefer to hand the ball off and let their workhorse plow the fields, and when needed, yawn let Pat Mahomes do his thing. That's when they're toughest to beat. This game could very well come down to the RBs.

Mahomes Will Lean On "The Others" On Third Downs

Especially early on. Travis Kelce ate up the Ravens in the first quarter last week. The Niners will take another page out of Baltimore’s newly published best seller “How Not To Beat The Chiefs For Dummies” and let someone besides 87 beat them, especially on money downs. All year the question marks surrounding the Chiefs have been "the others" as Shaq likes to call them in basketball. Rashee Rice (who may have graduated from "other" to "guy"), MVS, and the other misfits that attempt to catch passes for Mahomes. If you're SF, make them beat you. If they do, you can live with it. What you can't live with is Travis cupid shuffling his way down the field on every big play. Trav will get his throughout the game, but I expect the others to make some big catches on third down, especially early on to get the offense going. They're gonna need to.

Under The Radar Injuries Will Play A Big Role

Charles Omenihu tore his ACL against the Ravens. The Chiefs' ability to create consistent pressure with four, which they did masterfully against Baltimore, will be much more difficult without CO (all NFL nicknames are either their initials or their number). This may force KC to play an extra down lineman, or send more blitzers to create a rush. If San Fran can establish the run early and mix in play action, that smells trouble for KC if there's one less guy clogging up the middle of the field. That's easier to hit Aiyuk and Deebo on those patented crossers between the numbers. That allows for a more effective screen game. This is a big loss for KC.

Joe Thuney is less and less likely to suit up Sunday. I talked last week on Fundamentally Unsound how the Chiefs offensive line was the MVP of the Ravens game, allowing little to no pressure on Mahomes against that defense without arguably their best lineman. But this is another big test, and it's hard for me to believe they'll ace it again without their ace in the hole. With the most penalized lineman in football at tackle, and the nerves running rampant Sunday as Nick Bosa lines up across from him, a calming presence, along with the physical help of Joe Thuney could go a long way. We know what happened the last time Mahomes played with a banged up O Line in a Super Bowl...

The Niners on the other side are impossibly healthy heading into the Big Game. No starters that began their playoff run are expected to miss this game, most notably the big 5 (Purdy, CMC, Deebo, Kittle, T Will). While they've had some recent scares, the Niners have lost one, yes one, game in two seasons when those five started and finished the game. Advantage Niners in the health department.

Kyle Shanahan Will Be Ostracized For Every Move

Fairly so I may add. We all know his history. We know 28-3 against the Patriots when he refused to run the ball. The 10-point fourth quarter lead against the Chiefs four years ago. I can't remember a time a head coach had the most pressure of anyone on a Super Bowl roster, but for the Niners that reigns true. If he passes on third and short, expect a multi-second pan to him and a high-pitched “IDK JIM” from Romo. If he runs on third and short and gets stopped, another pan. The entire fourth quarter, especially if they have a lead, pans on pans on pans. The broadcast will harp on it and will relentlessly remind us of his previous shortcomings. It’s arguably the biggest storyline of the game. Getting to this point isn’t enough for Kyle. For his sake I hope he wins it, cause that monkey is getting big.

Kansas City Will Be Extra Tricky With Play Calling

My crystal ball is calling for multiple trick plays from KC. Whether it’s inside the 10 yard line and everyone breaks the huddle frolicking around the backfield like high schoolers under hypnosis, or a double pass on the first drive, nothing the Chiefs do in this game will surprise me. They’ll struggle to find chunk plays against this defense and will be forced into long, drawn out drives. That can only last so long before they get creative. They aren’t afraid to pull out all the stops, and may need to in order to pull this out, so expect the unexpected. 

Noah Gray Will Have A Moment

Idk why, so don't ask. Maybe it’s what I said about Travis earlier and the attention he’ll get. But something in the ether is telling me Noah Gray is going to play a big role in this game. Make multiple third or fourth down catches. Be hit on a seam route chunk play (maybe that trick play I eluded to). Catch the ball after it goes through MVS’s hands and bounces off his helmet. Idk. But I'm listening to my gut. And mark my words, if the Chiefs win, Noah Gray will be talked about Monday morning.

Taylor Swift Will Be Shown 100 Times

That number may be low. I don’t care that you don’t want me to mention it. I don’t care that you don’t want to see it on your TV, or hear Romo sneak in a lyric he's been rehearsing in his bathroom all week into a Travis Kelce route analysis. But I can assure you the NFL and CBS don’t care either. She’s bigger than all of us. Don't get mad. She’s inevitable. She drives ratings like no one else. Why I don’t know (maybe it's cause her new album is coming out on my birthday), but an objective fact is that millions of people around the world will tune into this game that normally wouldn't just to see the pan shots to her suite. So the networks will show their appreciation and oblige. Just like you would if she made you millions of additional dollars simply by being in attendance. 

The 49ers Will Win The Super Bowl

Immediately after the Ravens game I said I was taking the Chiefs. I said all last week that they have Pat Mahomes and the Niners don’t. I've contemplated how I could live with myself if I picked against him and lost, like I have already twice this postseason and felt like an absolute schmuck. But the less sentimental and emotional I become about this game, the more my mind has wondered to the side of logic. And in case you haven't followed the theme of this blog, it’s drifted far enough that I’m taking the Niners. They’re the better team. They're the healthier team. They have one of the best rosters ever assembled, and are hungry for a championship that has eluded them for years, sometimes at the fault of their own and others due to playing without a literal QB in an NFC Championship game. 

It feels like it’s their time. They can run the ball on the Chiefs, and from there their offense becomes unstoppable. They’ve confronted the elephant in the room of overcoming a second half or fourth quarter deficit head on not once but twice in these playoffs, and the elephant has since left. They have confidence whether they're up or down, the experience of knowing how to finish games, and (for some) the experience and feeling of losing this game, to this team. This team has been far too good for far too long to not have a title under their belt. They get one Sunday.

Happy Super Bowl.