The Gambling Show: Week 9

Season Record: 15-8-1

Ho hum, another 3-0 week. That's two out of the last three, and unlike the saying I don't think it's just coincidence. We've had as many losing weeks as perfect weeks, with the rest being profitable. And we've done so using the same formula. So in a week that's littered with home underdogs and lines that feel shorter than they should, there's value to be had. So why change now.

Gold Medal Game: Commanders +3

What a beautiful time to hop on a team who’s looked so horrendously bad the last couple weeks that’s catching a short line. Jayden is fully practicing this week and is expected to return. Terry has unfortunately been ruled out again, but Deebo is at least healthy for Jayden unlike his last outing vs. Dallas where he was throwing entirely to the P-squad.

Washington played KC tough in the first half Monday, but I think got the wind knocked out of their sails after three trips to within FG range resulted no points. I’d like to think with Jayden behind center they convert at least one of those trips into points and make that a better game than it turned out.

They’ve lost a couple in a row and are playing a Seattle team coming off a bye that wins more road games than anyone in the league. I’m high on Seattle, and we lost the last time we bet against them, but Jayden has the ability to mitigate a pass rush the way CJ Stroud couldn’t. I think he makes enough plays and puts on a special performance in his best effort to keep his team’s season alive. He may come up short, but that’s why we have the +3. I don’t think he does, and the Commies get a much needed win.

Silver Medal: Giants +2.5

The Giants have fought hard this year, and lost a couple tough games to keep them at the basement of the NFC East. Then they got trounced by Philly last week, lost their starting RB and lifeblood of the team to a terrible injury, but are getting less than a FG against the 5-3 49ers, who may be getting at least one of their 100 players on the injury list back this week?

Tyrone Tracy is not to be slept on, as evidenced by his season last year. With one of the worst offensive lines and general offenses in football, Tracy notched 839 yards despite his workload not ramping up til week 5, and, was a consistent producer for an otherwise stationary unit with 4.4 YPC.

I also am imagining Cam Skattebo pre-game smashing his crutches against his head and hyping this team up. If he’s around I bet he’s delivering the pregame speech, and I think the G-men get another win. They've been a different team at home this year. They don’t have to win for us to win, so again we’ll take the points. The niners are still so banged up and that was exposed a bit last week. They have the feel of a team that surprises you when you think they’re dead, and lets you down when they have expectations.

Bronze Medal: Texans -1.5

This is a follow the instructions game if I've ever seen one, cause this line makes no sense. Denver looked like world beaters last week against Dallas, and has scored 77 points in their last five quarters of football. They have a defense that can wreck havoc on an offensive line (Houston's kryptonite) and league the lead in sacks, with ten more sacks on the season than the second highest team.

So how is a 6-2 Broncos team that's playing at a very high level and does best what the 3-4 team their playing against does worst, getting points?

Because they're telling you what's going to happen. Pat Surtain is out, and with Nico and Christian Kirk back in the lineup that should help free up the Texans passing attack. Marvin Mims is also likely out, so Denver will be going deep in their shallow WR pocket to go up against a nasty defense in Houston.

Despite those injuries, the game will come down to whether Houston's offensive line can not lose too fast up front (cause I'm already conceding they won't win). I have doubts they can, but Vegas is telling me they can. That's the only explanation for this line. So instead of being a sheep, we take the road less traveled, and ride the Texans for the third straight week.