The Gambling Show: Week 8

Season Record: 12-8-1

Almost halfway through the year and we’re still pacing right at 60%. We were on the right side of that Texans game late Monday night, and if that offense had any semblance of competence then we would’ve had another winning week. But so it goes. We’re back at it on one of the tougher weeks of the year, with three less games than normal to find value on the heaviest bye week of the year. But fray not, there is still plenty of value to find.

Gold Medal Game: Packers -3

I don’t normally like fading a home dog, but in this game I’m fading the hype of the Aaron Rodgers revenge game against his former team. You’ve heard it all week, and will hear it all weekend, that Rodgers is playing the Packers for the first time since their semi-ugly divorce. Rodgers has come out and said the right things, that there’s no bad blood between him and the Pack, that he wants to retire a Packer, and that this doesn’t have the feel of a revenge game to him, as his time in Green Bay was largely positive.

But the betting public is still viewing this game as a revenge game, with the Steelers being a popular home dog pick. And I get it, Tomlin is historically a great bet as a home dog.

I just don’t believe in Pittsburgh. We’ve seen their defense shredded by Joe Flacco and Justin Fields for 30+ points this season, they can’t guard in the secondary and aren’t stopping the run very effectively either.

Green Bay’s defense hasn’t lived up to preseason/post week 1 hype, but are still the second best rush defense in the league. If that can continue Sunday, I like their chances against a one-sided Steelers attack while Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs hit the Pittsburgh defense from all angles.

The Packers are better than the Steelers, and their underwhelming performances against weaker competition in recent weeks, coupled with the Rodgers revenge factor, makes them listed at a discount at just a field goal. So I’ll lay the number.

Silver Medal: Texans -2 *UPDATED*

Originally we had the Ravens laying 6.5, but the surprise Lamar inactive after a week of practice including full participation Friday forces us to adjust.

We were on the right side of the Houston game on Monday night. Winning the turnover margin 4-1 and losing by more than a TD is otherworldly, and frankly hard to comprehend. Their offense was as pathetic as pathetic gets, being unable to gain a singular yard on the ground and unable to pass protect for more than a second and a half. Although not all his fault, CJ is officially on the cusp of losing his "the guy" status.

But those struggles came against the Seattle front that's one of if not the best in the league. A front that ranks first in rush defense, third is sacks, and top five in both pass rush and run stopping win rate. That's not the front the Texans are facing this weekend.

SF's defensive front, which is still missing key pieces in Nick Bosa and Bryce Huff, in addition to Fred Warner in the middle, ranks 30th in sacks and 26th in pass rush win rate. So things in theory should be much easier for Houston to get their offense set up.

With Nico and Christian Kirk both ruled out I don't know who CJ will be throwing to, but the line moving in Houston's favor despite the injuries tells me all I need to know. This is make or break for Houston. The division is already out of reach, but in a not very deep AFC the wild card is still a possibility, but only if they win this game. I believe in this defense, and I'm holding onto my last grasps of belief in CJ Stroud. I'll take the Texans to keep their season alive.

Bronze Medal: Jets +7

I never thought I’d bet on the Jets. Although I was tempted the last few weeks as they were clearly the sharp play against the Panthers and Cowboys, being pick ems at home against both teams, I stayed away, cause it’s the Jets. And smartly so, as I watched them shit down their pants time and time again.

But think about how insanely overinflated this line is. The Bengals and Joe Flacco looked like world beaters against Pittsburgh last week, so naturally the hype around the team rises. But this isn’t a typical vaunted Steelers defense, so I’m not putting as much stock in that as most. Flacco turns the clock back a couple times a year every year.

The Bengals have three wins this season, including when Burrow was playing, by a combined 7 points. The Jets on the other hand haven’t won a game (lol), but five of their seven losses have come within 7 points, several of those against teams better than this Bengals squad.

So with Tyrod likely behind center, who’s objectively a better passer than Justin Fields, against a porous defense in Cincinnati, with the Jets defense sneakily playing very good football the last two weeks (13 points allowed in each game), I’ll take the overinflated line and the points (I bought the half point to +7). I didn’t have the confidence to bet the Jets to win a game, but they don’t need to win for us to win, so I’ll bank on them following the season trend and Flacco coming back to baseline.

See you next week.