The Gambling Show: Week 6

Season Record: 8-6-1

Another winning week (yawns). That makes three of five, and tracking just shy of our 60% historical mark. The two games that were the most uncomfortable, the ones that forced you to pry your eyes open to watch, were the two winners, with the one game where we went with the grain as the one that left us feeling like fools. So let's stick with the plan, and take the road less traveled.

Gold Medal Game: Seahawks Pick 'Em

I liked this game when the lines first came out at +1.5, and despite logical thinking leading you to tail the team that just beat Kansas City on Monday Night Football, the NFL's hottest new toy and second most surprising 4-1 team this season (behind division foe in Indy), the line is moving the other way. So I feel vindicated.

The Seahawks are two last minute turnovers from Sam Darnold away from being 5-0. One of those came on Sunday, and despite that flub he had his best game production wise of the season against a Tampa defense who was top 10 in yards allowed entering the game.

Don't give me any of this "west coast team traveling east" bullshit with this game. Since Mike McDonald took over the Seahawks last year, the Hawks are 9-1 on the road, which I can only assume is one of if not the best in the league. Of those 9 wins, four have come on eastern time, including one of our hits earlier this year in Pittsburgh. So again, don't talk travel, at least not with this team.

The Jaguars are good. I mean they could also easily be 5-0 if not for a Jake Browning game-winning drive in Cincinnati. But this is the let down spot of all let down spots, and the line is telling you it's likely to happen. Maybe it's partly the fact I don't see the Jags as a 5-1 team, but I'll ride with the road warriors in Seattle.

Silver Medal: Chiefs -2

I feel like two of my three picks often come from the same game the prior week, and is again the case this time. I hate this line. I hate going against the absolute wagon that is the Lions, who've covered nearly 70% of their games since Dan Campbell took over. I hate going against a team that's already burned us once this year in Baltimore, and a team I genuinely root for. But that's why I love it.

The Chiefs are rounding into form offensively. Mahomes just put up his first 300 yard game of the season, and is spreading the ball around to his plethora of good but not great weapons. Tyquan Thornton is becoming the deep threat the Patriots always hoped he'd be, and that's just the tip of the iceberg with speed they have on the outside.

The Lions will be without their top two corners Sunday, and both starting safeties have been limited or held out of practice so far this week, which doesn't bode well based off of what I just said. But this is a desperation game. The Chiefs need this game, and the Lions simply don't. If there's one coach that gets his team believing they need every game it's Campbell, which is where my worry comes from. But I don't think the Chiefs are playing as bad as their record, and I think they win a must-win game at home Sunday night, cause that's what great teams do. Watch for Chris Jones to make a game sealing play.

Bronze Medal: Panthers +3

Picking a third game this week is brutal. There's a bunch of ugly numbers, QBs that may or may not play due to injury, and nothing that really sticks out. So I'm going with a game in which no one is going with, yet the line is fishy enough to make me intrigued.

Dak is balling, arguably playing QB better than anyone in football right now. They have the best offense in the league, and are doing it both through the air and on the ground. But they also have the worst defense in the league, and aren't tightened up on either the pass or run. So it's hard to make out too much of this team. But another high scoring affair for the most popular team in football (for some reason) has the nation buying in.

Let me remind you their dominant win last week was against the Jets, so the defense being "fixed" isn't something I'm buying. Let me also remind you that the Panthers are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Both wins have come at home this year, and they carry some momentum coming off a 17-point comeback last week against Miami. I'm hopeful but not confident that Chuba will play, but Rico Dowdle has proven to be a solid backup regardless. I don't expect nearly the production he had last week, but the Cowboys run defense is as poor as Miami's, so there's no reason to think he'll be stifled.

It's more of the line that's talking to me here than anything. I can give you these nuggets/opinions, but the most influential nugget to me is that no one is picking the Panthers to cover this game, let alone win. Every expert on the internet is taking the Cowboys, yet the line has actually moved down from 3.5 to 3. So something's up. When the confidence level across the board is low, follow the instructions, and make yourself uncomfortable.