The Gambling Show: Week 4

Season Record: 4-4-1 (50%)

Hand up I didn't have it last week, going below .500 for the first week this season. Felt like we made the right plays, but sometimes we find out the hard way that CJ Stroud may just not be the guy, while at the same time being reminded that the Lions are chalk full of guys as they bullied Baltimore to an easy win. This isn't an easy game, otherwise everyone would do it.

I have three plays I love this week, three plays that popped off the screen when I first glanced at the slate. So I'm feeling good about getting back above .500.

Gold Medal Game: Rams -3.5

I know I said I was done fading the Colts after two of our four losses this season have come from doing that. And to be honest I had every intention of following through with that for more than one week (cause I was tempted to bet the Titans last week but held off). But sometimes the devil hands you an apple so crisp, so juicy, that you have no choice but to accept and take a bite.

What the fuck is this line? Earlier this week I called the Colts the best team in football so far this season, and I stand by that based off how they've played. The Rams have looked solid this year despite the blown lead against Philly last week, but are getting over a field goal? And there's been no line movement down since it was released late Sunday?

This is a "follow the instructions" game. The manual is written, the proof is in the pudding. Take the Rams no matter how much you hate it.

Silver Medal: Falcons Pick 'Em

The Falcons find themselves on the sharp side of the coin for the second time in three weeks. I feel like I have my pulse on them, too. I had them as the gold medal game in Minnesota which was the easiest winner of the season (tied with the Bears), and despite being too much of pansy to bet them last week, told my buddies I was with I liked the Panthers.

This is the perfect hot and cold, up and down team. They have talent all over the place, but the talent has never shown any consistency. They're good enough to prove you wrong when they're down, and bad enough to never live up to heightened expectations.

Jayden is still a toss up to play, but my gut says the Commanders will play it safe and keep him out. Being 2-1 with Mariota looking great last week certainly helps. Regardless, Atlanta is better than their week 3 performance, and are a pick 'em at home against in my opinion a pretty similarly talented team. So I'll take the overlooked home team.

Bronze Medal: Raiders Pick 'Em

The Bears have been fixed. Caleb Williams gave the entire city of Chicago free hot dogs and all is right in the Windy City.

I was very clear last week that the Bears pick was nearly everything to do with the Cowboys and Ben Johnson's history against their defense. That went to plan perfectly, as BJ pulled out his bag of tricks into a dominant offensive performance against the sorriest defense in football.

Everyone in Chicago and likely the country now believes that Caleb and the Bears are fixed, he will scorch Earth against every defense he plays and Da Bears are back. And all of those people will look at a pick 'em line against the Raiders who just lost by 20 to Marcus Mariota and think they're stealing money.

So I'll take the road less travelled, and not fall into the trap that the Bears are a competent football team after one good game against an incompetent opponent. And I'll be the one laughing on Sunday.

See ya next week back above .500.