The Gambling Show: Week 3

Season Record: 3-2-1 (60%)

One of the worst beats I’ve ever experienced is all that stood in the way of a perfect 3-0 week. The other two wins were easy, with the Falcons being the sharpest game of the season so far. We’re one dropped TD pass as time expires and a phantom penalty after time expired from being 5-1 on the year, so what that tells me is we’re seeing the board. And yes I say we, since anyone following along is part of the team. There’s some good opportunities this week too.

Gold Medal Game: Bears +1

What a time to buy low on this team. They had the horrific loss in week 1, a game in which they dominated for three quarters, then got annihilated in Ben Johnson’s homecoming to Detroit, which was expected. Caleb hasn’t looked great so far this season, but he now gets to play one of the worst defenses I’ve ever seen play football in the Cowboys, in what should be a much-needed confidence boost.

Ben Johnson must be having a field day preparing to play this defense, which is more prone to missed assignments than the frat boy who politely gets asked by the university to not return to school next semester. Remember, this was the same defense Ben Johnson toyed with last year in Detroit, when he pulled out the Penei Sewall hook and ladder while up 30 in Jerry's World.

The Cowboys should still score, but I have a feeling the Bears defense will show a little fight after being embarrassed last week. They shouldn’t be as bad as they’ve been. The season according to Bears fans is already over, but I see them getting a glimmer of hope this weekend and get the first win of the Ben Johnson era.

Silver Medal: Ravens -4

Full transparency, I’m buying the half point down from -4.5, so this is at -120. This goes against the grain of my regular thinking, laying the number, especially over a field goal, against a team of similar skill level. But I think the line being as high as -6 on Monday after the Lions put a 50-burger on the Bears tells you all you need to know.

The Ravens were up two scores on Buffalo in Buffalo opening week with 4 minutes left. They beat the Browns, similar to what the Lions did to Chicago this week, by 25 without seeming to play that well.

I just think they’re the best team in football, and at home, on the national stage again, they’re not going to let what happened in Buffalo happen again.

Sometimes you have to throw out the textbook and follow your gut. This is a gut pick. I think the Ravens win by at least a touchdown on Monday.

Bronze Medal: Texans +1.5

This isn’t an “I hate Trevor” pick, in case you were wondering. There’s more reason to my picks than service level pettiness.

The Texans have lost two close games to what are likely top ten teams in the NFL in the Rams and Bucs. Against those high potent offenses, they’ve allowed 17 PPG. Both of those offenses are better than the Jags, and both of their defenses are too.

The Jags on the flip side beat the shit out of the Panthers who look horrible and gave up 31 points and lost to backup Jake Browning after Burrow went out. They’ve so far ran the ball the best in football…but again…played the Panthers and Bengals defenses.

I think Houston is a better overall team, and has a bigger chip on their shoulder. If Indy beats Tennessee, they could be three games back three weeks in, with a massive mountain to climb.

Jacksonville’s rush defense is so far the better of the two defensive units, but Houston can’t run the ball anyway. This is a game CJ Stroud needs to take over and win, and I think he will.