The Gambling Show: Week 2

Season Record: 0-3 (woof)

Think like a goldfish.

Ted Lasso fans know the drill; short memories, look forward. That’s the plan after a disastrous week 1.

We all know week 1 is a guessing game. We have months to devise our own NFL script, but no one knows a damn thing until games are played.

It’s the hardest week of the year to bet on, since there’s zero data to base opinions on. I can't remember the last time I've had a winning week 1; I know for sure it wasn't the last three years. So instead of being down in the dumps, we think like a goldfish.

Week 2 is my favorite week of the year to bet, since there’s so many opportunities to find value. I’m sure you read an overreaction article/blog this week. Teams that overachieved in week 1 are overvalued, and the lines that don’t follow common logic provide easy fade the noise opportunities. There’s a few that popped out to me that will get us back on track.

Gold Medal Game: Los Angeles Rams -7

The second the Giants game ended on Sunday night I couldn’t wait to see this line.

Sure the Giants made me look like an idiot, but there was so much energy and emotion that went into that game. Home opener in primetime, against Dallas, Malik Nabers back, new era with Harbaugh; all that was going for them. And they bullied Dallas. I can’t say I wasn’t impressed.

I can say I wasn’t impressed with their defense, who after a good start didn't stop Dallas in the second half despite being fresh on every drive as their offense ate up 8+ minutes of clock every time they touched the ball.

The second half issues with getting off the field should continue against a Rams team that’s loaded on that side of the ball.

The difference in this game is that LA’s defense is better than Dallas’.

Even without Myles Garrett, the Rams are much more formidable on that side of the ball. They looked bad against the Niners, yes, but they always do. Shanahan and the Niners play the Rams better than anyone, and have had their number for years. So I’m not putting too much stock in Shanahan toying with a good defense.

I don’t see the offense struggling like they did in Austrailia, and I can envision a small hangover for the G-men coming off a huge win. I think the Rams win big.

Silver Medal Game: Indianapolis Colts +7

This is a hold your breath and trust the process pick.

The Colts made the podium for week 1’s most disappointing performers, and unfortunately I felt like the one receiving the medal. I’m not out here making excuses. Be a goldfish.

The Chiefs looked SCARY on Monday night. If they can run the ball like that, like they’ve never really been able to do with Mahomes at the helm, this team is all the way back.

I think Monday night was maybe the epitome of a week 1 game. I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs so I expected them to be better, but I don’t think they’ll be punishing other playoff teams on a weekly basis. Where the Broncos, much like the Rams, were just off. They weren’t fully prepared, maybe feeling themselves after an AFC West championship last year, and walked into an incredibly difficult place to play and laid an egg.

If Bo Nix doesn’t have one of his worst games as a pro I think this line comes out around 4.5. If Indy played the first half like they did the second, I think the same thing. So I’m taking the extra value (which gets me to a full TD) and believing Indy will have some guts.

Bronze Medal Game: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5

This game was on my radar as week 1 wrapped up, but when I saw the line I didn't react much. Then I saw the amount of bets coming in for the Raiders, and my mood changed.

The Chargers have to not only win, but have to win big. They were the gold medalist of my aforementioned podium of poor performers last week, and they need to get their act together quick.

The Raiders seemed to convince people they were good by beating the Dolphins? Remind you, the Dolphins are only rostering one of their seven highest paid players (i.e. they don't have any talent), so they'll make a lot of teams look good. I mean how bad must you be to be two TD underdogs in week 2!

Expectations are already gone for the Chargers. So now is the exact time they'll play great and make people question. It's just what they do.

They'll be a double blowout at Sofi this weekend. And with that we'll be right back on track.