The Gambling Show: Week 2

Season Record: 1-1-1

Congratulations, we made it through the hardest week of the gambling year unscathed, and were one Saints pass breakup in the endzone away from being 2-1 (apologies on the Dolphins, boy was that bad).

Week 2 in the NFL is the best week to gamble, as lines are skewed more this week than any others based off one game. It's the best week to fade the hype, and buy low/sell high on teams that performed above or below their season-long expectations in week 1.

Gold Medal Game: Falcons +4

I saw this on Tuesday at +5 and already knew this was the game for this spot, coming off the Monday night comeback and people peppering the Vikings with love. The Falcons easily could've/should've won their game against Tampa Sunday, and were a Younghoe Koo kick, a kick he's made a thousand times in clutch spots, away from at least going to OT.

I wish I got this at +5, but I'm still happy with +4. I've seen it even drop to +3.5 on some books, so that tells you all you need to know (with the public likely backing Minnesota in the process). Take the team that's similar in talent and performance, getting 4 points.

Silver Medal Game: Broncos -1

The Broncos were bad on Sunday despite the 8-point win. The Colts looked like the best team on the planet, although debate of whether they were simply playing the worst team on the planet is an argument I'd be willing to have.

On paper, the Broncos are much better than the Colts. The expectations of these teams' seasons were drastically different, at least in my eyes. So how is this game basically a pick em?

Overcorrections to week 1 is the only plausible answer. In my mind this is should be Broncos -3 to -3.5, and if the Colts didn't look like a juggernaut on Sunday I think it would be. So I'll continue my lack of belief in Daniel Jones and the Colts, and chalk up last week to playing the Dolphins. This Broncos defense will be an entirely different animal for them.

They just have to win the game. If they don't, I'll pause my Colts hate for a while.

Bronze Medal Game: Seahawks +3

You all saw the headlines about Aaron Rodgers being back to his old self, the stats that showed his last season with the Jets wasn't as bad as it seemed, blah blah blah.

If there's anything Aaron Rodgers loves more than condescendingly answering media questions it's sticking it to the man. In this case, the man was the Jets, who ran him out of town thinking he couldn't play anymore. I truly think the only reason Rodgers is playing this year is because the Jets told him they think he can't. Which is awesome, I respect the hell out of pettiness.

But did you see the defense? The vaunted Pittsburgh defense that allowed 32 points and 395 yards (including 182 on the ground) to Justin Fields?? Although they didn't last week, the Seahawks typically have a solid run game with the Kenneth Walker/Charbonnet combo, and were five yards away from beating San Francisco and changing the line on this game.

I think Rodgers comes back to life and the Seahawks have a real chance of winning this game. I'd love it if I could get the hook on the field goal, but I'll take the 3, and see you next week.