The Gambling Show: Week 15

Season Record: 22-17-3

Gutsy week when we absolutely needed it. It's what we do here. We can always make the Daniel Jones injury excuse as to why that game was a loser even though it was already heading south before his Achilles ruptured, but a winning week is a winning week.

We have a weird but pretty awesome slate this week, with half the games having massive postseason implications and the other half with double digit spreads. As always, we're going against the grain. And if the Falcons last night were any indication of the week ahead, we'll be positive yet again.

Gold Medal Game: Rams -6

I hate to do it, I really do. I love the Lions, I've adopted them as my second favorite team, and almost always root for them. They're the best ATS team in the league in the Dan Campbell era, and are never a comfortable team to bet against, especially as an underdog being overlooked.

But they're only being overlooked by Vegas, which is why I like LA. A huge win over Dallas last Thursday which saw the Lions seemingly rekindle their offense has people thinking they may be back. Their recent success over the Rams the last two years would lend you to think they have the upper hand in this matchup. Yet they're nearly TD underdogs? Hmm....

If it looks like a rat and smells like a rat...

As much as I hate to say it, this isn't the same Lions team as years past. And it's not the same Rams team either, but in the inverse. The Lions haven't won back to back games since week 5. With the exception of the Panthers monsoon game, the Rams are killing teams every week.

Detroit's offense looked great last week, but this Rams defense ain't the Cowboys. And without Brian Branch again after a brutal injury last week, LA's offense should move the ball with relative ease against a yet again banged up Detroit defense. Luckily for Detroit, this loss won't put them out of playoff contention.

Silver Medal: Chiefs -5.5

The Chiefs are not the Chiefs. I've defended them all year, I've anxiously waited for them to burst the bubble of mediocrity they've been stuck in, but they continue to shoot themselves in the foot. They're nearly eliminated from playoff contention, and a loss this week will all but solidify it.

So how, my friends, is this team, who's looked like a shell of themselves all year, who embarrassed themselves on Sunday night, playing a team they've already lost to this year, a team with 3 more wins on the season, including a gutsy victory over the Super Bowl champs on Monday night, laying 5.5 points?

Because no one will back them. The larger the number, the more people will hop on the Chargers. Which is what we're seeing so far, and is exactly what the books want.

This is a follow the instructions game. We've done well staying off the Chiefs the last few weeks with their rat lines, but this feels like the perfect time to hop on, just as most people are finally tossing them in the trash.

I'm beginning to believe victories over the Eagles aren't all that impressive. The Chargers are extremely banged up; Herbert has a broken hand, Ladd is dealing with a foot injury, and they're still missing their two starting tackles, which was clear on Monday as Herby was running for his life on nearly every play.

If the Chiefs miss the playoffs, it'll be because of a tie breaker. They will win the last four games of the year, finish 10-7, and still have a shot depending how the Chargers end their gauntlet of a schedule. If I know one thing it's that teams like this don't quit, even if the chances are slim to none. So I'll ride with KC, because Vegas told me so.

Bronze Medal: Ravens -2.5

I don't remember the last time I've layed the number with three favorites on a slate. This honestly might be the first. But just because there isn't a plus sign doesn't mean it's not sharp.

These three games are all as ratty as rat lines come. You know, like the Packers game last week, when no one would ever lay a near TD against the one seed in the NFC? I don't care that it came down to the last play, we won while most lost.

So that's what we're doing here. Like the Rams and Chiefs, whose lines feel way too inflated and every bird brain will flock to the plus side thinking they're sharp, they will continue to be sheep.

This game is to a lesser extent in my opinion, but the Bengals are definitely getting the home underdog love. They just killed the Ravens in Baltimore two weeks ago, and were up on the Bills with the ball in Buffalo last week half way through the fourth quarter. Burrow is playing great since his return (minus the back to back picks that flipped the Bills game upside down), while Lamar and the Ravens are in free fall.

But I noticed a bit more pep in Lamar's step last week against Pittsburgh. His 43 rushing yards were his highest clip since week 4 (when he was injured). His lack of explosiveness on the ground has made him and the Ravens offense much more pedestrian and easier to defend, so if he has that back, or even the threat of it back, that can open things up for everyone.

I have to believe he'll have one game without turning the ball over, and against this Bengals unit who were given the full Josh Allen treatment a week ago, and the one that turned Baltimore over 5 times on Thanksgiving night, this is his spot for redemption.

I don't see the Ravens losing this game. The fact that a lot of people do gives me even more conviction. No Tee Higgins helps too.