The Gambling Show: Week 12

Season Record: 19-13-1

Back to back winning weeks after the year's lone 0-3 week is exactly what the doctor called for, and we're right back on track for 60%. We're seeing the board, too. The Jags was as sharp as they come, the Brownies not too far behind, and I'll go to my grave thinking we played the right side of the Vikings game. I didn't realize quite how bad JJ McCar..., sorry, "Nine", is.

This week's slate isn't quite as juicy as last, but as always there's value to be found. Let's go for three weeks in a row.

Gold Medal Game: Cardinals +3

How could this not be the play? The Jaguars coming off a blowout win against what many thought was an above average Chargers team. The Cardinals coming off a blowout loss to the 49ers at home in which they were short-lined underdogs, a game which was over within seconds of starting. And the Cardinals are catching another short line. I'm reeling it in.

I don't trust the Jaguars, and I don't trust Trevor Lawrence. Let me remind you Trevor tried his best in last week's first half to keep the Chargers in the game. A 4th down miss on the first possession, his weekly INT on the third, and the score was just 7-6 half way through the second quarter. The Jags won that game on defense and the running game, a game in which felt more like an aberration than a trend seeing how Jacksonville had played the month prior. Like I said last week, a classic spot game.

With the exception of the last two weeks, Arizona has played close games all year. Now that they don't have to play the stalwarts of the NFC West, they can take a breath of fresh air and take the sails out of a Jacksonville team I don't find much superior to them. I bet you they win, but I'll take the field goal.

Silver Medal: Chiefs -3

I don't care if this is dumb. I don't care that I might look like an idiot for it. Hell, I risk that every week. But I will not get myself to believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be eliminated from playoff contention before Thanksgiving.

I just won't do it. I wanted to bet them last week in Denver, but my gut told me to stay off. That same gut is telling me this week to hop on. This is a championship organization, lined with championship players and coaches, some of the greatest we've ever seen. All empires fall, but they don't do so without a fight. This game is that fight. And I expect them to win this battle and live to fight another day.

I saw a crazy stat that KC is actually playing better than this time last year, but just can't win close games. So why don't they do what they did the only other time we've bet on them this year against the Lions; leave no doubt.

Destroy the Colts. Make them wish they never made the trip. Remind the world that the AFC, although not this January, in theory still goes through Arrowhead. And then next week after we cash the ticket you go to hell. Capeesh?

This is an "I'm down to go down with the ship" pick. I think a lot of people will hop off after the Denver game, when most were on board. So I'll take my chances with the greatest team of the decade.

I got this at -120, and I wouldn't be surprised if this line moves to 3.5 by kickoff on Sunday. I don't know if I love it there, but getting the even three is good with me. The Kingdom won't collapse this weekend.

Bronze Medal: Bucs +7

The Bucs have been near TD underdogs multiple times this season when it felt they shouldn't have been (Lions and Bills). Both times, the public hopped all over them. And both times, they lost (we were on the Lions a few weeks back, shoutout to us). So here they are again, on the road, getting a touchdown to one of if not the best team in the league right now in the Rams.

I don't think the line feels out of whack like it has in recent games, so I don’t feel like a sucker for being on this side. Tampa is horribly injured, they haven't been able to get consistent pass rush, and have lost three of their last four, albeit to above average teams. Against a Rams team that is 8-2 with a +100 point differential and balanced on both sides of the ball, the Bucs have shown enough that they shouldn't be viewed in the same class.

I just think this is a very resilient group. Chris Godwin and potentially Bucky Irving will both be returning to action, and while I don't expect either to play significant snaps, the feeling in the locker room that they're getting healthier and closer to their normal selves will make a difference. They need to find a way to get pressure on Stafford, they need to be able to tackle the untackleable in Puka Nacua, and find a way to mitigate the pass rush on Baker so he's not running a scramble drill on every play.

It's a tall task, but one I believe Baker and the Bucs are up for. It's times like these, when the hype around the team is waning, and potentially faded, that NFL teams surprise you. Surprise me on Sunday night Tampa. Just keep it within a touchdown.