The Gambling Show: Week 11

Season Record: 17-12-1

The most important thing you can have in life is the ability to respond to adversity. You'll get kicked in the nuts and make a fool of yourself plenty of times, but as long as you don't let those moments change who you are keep flighting then you'll be alright. Although the Packers didn't do that last week, we did, going 2-1 despite their miserable performance for the second straight week to get us back on track.

While the last few weeks have been difficult to find three games I liked, this week was tough to narrow it down. I'm very excited for this slate, in what is a weirdly divisional heavy week. Let's pile on good weeks.

Gold Medal Game: Jaguars +3

This is a classic spot game. The Chargers have been playing well despite the injuries to the offensive line and offense as a whole. Kimani Vidal has been an effortless plug-in for Hampton, Herbert is for the most part (outside the two times we've bet on them) playing good ball, the defense is still very good, and they're 7-3 coming off three straight wins.

The Jags are on the opposite trajectory, losing three of their last four, including the disastrous choke job last week in Houston (appreciate that), with the one win coming in OT against the 2-win Raiders. Trevor Lawrence is having yet another underwhelming season, and the defense that looked promising to start the season has fallen off a cliff.

So nothing in your right mind should make you think the Jags are live in this game. Which is exactly why I think they'll be. Again, this is a spot game.

Coming off the dominant Pittsburgh performance in front of a national TV audience, people will be riding high on the Chargers. And fresh off the 19-point choke job from the Jags last week (again, thanks), people have buried the Jags. But I've been on record that Pittsburgh isn't a good football team, so I take last week's win with a massive grain of salt. I've also been on the record (especially in these posts) that I think Houston is a good football team.

So when I saw the Jags were only catching a field goal, I knew the masses would flock to LA. And they have. But the line has stayed put, which means they're all suckers. The Jags are so due.

Silver Medal: Vikings -2.5

Usually I favor the divisional dog, but this game stuck out to me. A 6-3 Chicago team, winners of six of seven, underdogs against a Vikings team who've lost three of four? Hmmm....

Take a look at who the Vikings have played in that stretch; Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens. That's a gauntlet of games. They hung tight in two of the losses, both at home, to Philly and Baltimore, and beat Detroit in Detroit. That's not a four game stretch to scoff at in my opinion for a team that's clearly an echelon or two below that group of four.

The Bears on the other hand have played absolutely no one in their winning streak. Their lone loss came to the lone good team, Baltimore, but before Baltimore was good and without Lamar Jackson. The rest of their wins have come against teams with a maximum of 3 wins on the year. Seriously, Dallas at 3-5-1 has the best record of the teams Chicago has beaten this year. And they've squeaked by most of them.

So I think the line should probably be on the opposite side of this hook, so getting it on this side is music to my ears. Like the Baltimore game, I don't think Chicago is ready for the next step of competition. And I don't see Minnesota losing three games in a row at home. Skol.

Bronze Medal: Browns +8

Let's get gross with it. The Browns are a bad offensive team, but their defense is still elite. They rank 2nd in both passing and total yards allowed, and are top 10 against the run as well. They can, and do, hang in games simply because of that unit.

The Ravens have won three straight since their bye week, and appear to be rounding into the team we all thought they would be before the season.

But Lamar and the offense hasn't fully clicked yet, evidenced by last week's game in Minnesota. They had just one TD drive outside of a short field kickoff fumble recovery gift. Against a slightly better Browns defense, I can imagine the same.

Baltimore's defense has stepped up as of late, which is where the concern for this pick comes. Cleveland's offense is atrocious, so putting up points in any capacity will be a struggle.

But these AFC North games can get weird. Cleveland is much better at home than on the road (2-1 overall and 3-0 against the spread in the dawg pound this year), and these two teams split more often than not, including each of the last four years.

In week 2 the Browns outgained the Ravens by 91 yards, out-possessed them, and limited Baltimore to 3-12 on third down. They still lost the game 41-17 lol, but it provides proof they match up pretty well. I'd imagine a similar script keeps this game within a score.