The Gambling Show: Week 10

Season Record: 10-16-1

Idk man. I feel like we're making the right plays and things just aren't falling. Chalk ran the slate last week, as nearly every favorite not only won but covered, except for the Bears who won but didn't cover after imploding for the entire second half.

It's a stretch we need to forget, and forget fast. Stick to our process - the process that netted us 5 straight 60% seasons - and wait for the tides to turn.

You only lose when you quit.

Gold Medal Game: Atlanta Falcons +3.5

I can't quit the short-lined NFC South spots.

The Panthers last week was 100% the right play, but a fluke interception, bad officiating, and the Broncos dark magic somehow made the cross country trip to Charlotte to spoil our day. Life goes on.

This game falls exactly into the same boat as that one. The Chiefs off a 20-point blowout of the J-E-T-S suck suck suck are going against an anemic Falcons team that looked to have had one too many Sangria pitchers in Madrid last Saturday night.

The Chiefs are being talked about as Super Bowl contenders, and are only catching a field goal and hook against a 3-win Falcons team?

*Sniffs*

Smells fishy.

I'll take the points in a game that means a lot to this Falcons squad. They're somehow one win away from being atop the division, and a win this weekend will likely vault them into division favorites (which is ridiculous to say).

Kenneth Walker was just ruled out this morning, so the Chiefs will have to find another explosive player on offense. So far through nine weeks, it's only been K9. As he goes, the Chiefs go.

And he's gone. So I'll take the hook and won't be surprised if Atlanta pulls off another 49ers-like upset.

Silver Medal Game: Cleveland Browns +4.5

I've said it before, but the Browns catching points at home is becoming close to an auto bet.

And I love them getting more than 4 here. The Texans looked great last week....against the Chargers. Whoop de freaking do.

CJ has been awesome this year, but they still can't run the ball. Cleveland's defense is much better against the pass than the run, so I think they'll be able to limit CJ and the offense's explosiveness.

I'm trying to remind myself that the vaunted Texans defense isn't as scary as my memory serves me. DeShaun being back in the lineup will help, but the aggressiveness of Houston's defense that's burned them more times than me using a coal fire grill will get burned again at least a couple times in this game.

Cleveland is such a different team at home. They're 3-0 at home this year, all three wins coming as underdogs. The Browns home field advantage is real. Whether they win or not doesn't matter. But they'll muck it up and keep it to a field goal.

Bronze Medal Game: San Francisco 49ers -4

Another chalk pick from me, after the one chalky pick I had last week was the one chalky pick on the entire Sunday slate that didn't win.

Whatever. This one is simply matchup based.

I don't care that Mike Evans isn't playing again. I don't care that Deebo may not play either (although it looks like he will). How in the world will this Dallas defense stop this offense?

If they can't keep the Cardinals under 30 points, how will they stop the Niners?

Seriously. CMC and Kaelon Black will collectively run for over 200 yards on the 31st ranked rushing defense in football. The Niners will control the clock, tire this defense out, and methodically score 35+.

The Cowboys can play well on offense. But this is a complete coaching mismatch on top of the personnel mismatch. Even if they score 28 points, I don't think that's enough to cover.

The Cowboys will shit their pants in America's game of the week yet again.