The Gambling Show: Week 10

Season Record: 15-11-1

Well last week stunk. Going 0-3 never sits well, but the fact we're still batting 58% on the year does make the pill easier to swallow. Last week was full of barking dogs, unfortunately we were just on the wrong ones. Houston had no business losing that game, and I'd like to think if CJ stayed in they wouldn't have. The Giants and Commanders on the other hand never had a chance. Hand up. I guess not every trap line is a trap.

It'd be easy to change course after a week like last, but this game ain't easy. We haven't gone 60%+ for three straight years changing course and being a square. So let's bounce back, doing it our way.

Gold Medal Game: Packers -2

The Packers formula is simple. Against teams they should overwhelm, they underperform, and vice versa. Their three non-wins this season have come in games where they're a TD or more favorite. They consistently play down to their competition, which is a mystery I'm sure Green Bay fans, players, and coaches are scratching their heads trying to solve.

But they also play up to their competition. In their three lowest point spreads of the year (Detroit, Washington, Pittsburgh), two of those being primetime and all three being nationally televised, they've won by at least 9 points and easily won/covered.

So in a game fresh off a horrible loss, going against the Super Bowl champs off a bye, laying 2 points despite the majority of sentiment behind the Eagles, this is a no brainer pick for me.

Silver Medal: Saints +5.5

We're back to our ways of taking opposite sides of a previous week's game. The Panthers got a huge win to keep their season alive, and now host the hapless Saints at home, who are coming off a 24-point blowout loss to the Rams in their rookie QB's first start.

This just feels like too many points. I agree that the Panthers should be favorites, but over the last four years, the Panthers have been favorites 10 times. They're 0-10 not only against the spread but straight up in those games. Three of their five wins this year have come by a FG, and it's a divisional game, which Vegas proved last night more often than not stays close.

This is a pick you have to send in and look away. I'm glad the Panthers are good, but they're not a near-TD favorite good. So we'll take the points.

Bronze Medal: Texans +1

I can't quit this team. This is now four straight weeks of taking Houston, and our record so far is 1-2. Despite that, they lose games in ways that make me think I was on the right side. The Seattle loss was brutal, being +3 on turnover margin and losing by 8. Last week was also tough, losing by a last second FG despite again being +2 on turnover margin and losing their QB mid-game.

So I will ride one last time, against a Jaguars team who isn't playing all that well, who already beat Houston earlier this season, with the defense that's apparently a drug to me. This is a game Houston needs to win to put the Jaguars in their place and keep their season afloat. And I think the defense can feast on a mistake-prone Trevor Lawrence, likely without his WR1 in Brian Thomas.

I do believe losing a QB mid-game has a much stronger effect on a team's morale than it does knowing you're going into the game with a backup. Everyone on Houston, specifically the defense, in the absence of CJ knows they need to step their game up.

What this really comes down to is the formula I laid out for the Texans a few weeks back, the same formula I didn't listen to last week because the line was so egregious I had to take them. Against good defenses, specifically good fronts, their O line gets overwhelmed and they lose. But against mediocre ones where they can hold their own, they win. Jacksonville has the least amount of sacks in the NFL (10 through 9 games) so Davis Mills likely won't be under the pressure he was last week against the NFL's sack leaders in Denver.

The line moved a FG worth after the CJ announcement, and has already slightly moved back in Houston's favor. So I'll ride with my favorite defense in football for one more week.

Let's have another winning week.