The Gambling Show: Week 1

This is what you've been waiting for.

Sure, the consistent top-level analysis is nice, but this is where the money is made. Literally.

And I mean literally. Including the podcast days, this is my sixth year making picks. In the prior five years, the results are as follows:

2025: 29-21-4 (58%)

2024: 30-20-1 (60%)*

2023: 25-17 (60%)

2022: 24-15 (62%)

2021: 28-11 (72%)

*In 2024 the show stopped, and although I didn't have an outlet to post my picks, I kept track on my phone. Since I don't have proof I will let you believe me if you'd like. Credit to me for even calling this out when I didn't need to.

I'm not playing with this. I was one bad beat in week 18 away from keeping my 60% streak going last year, and I've been pissed all offseason. 60% has always been the goal, and will be again this year. Keep in mind the best professional gamblers win at a 55% clip.

If you're new, I pick three games per weekend, no more no less, spread only. I bet every one of the picks I make, and they're the only three bets I make that week. In the show we used to rank them gold, silver, and bronze based on our confidence level, and used it as a points system for a season long race. Although there's no longer a head to head competition, in honor of the show, I'll keep my ranking system.

LFG.

Gold Medal Game: Indianapolis Colts +3.5

Welcome to the Thunderdome. Hope you like getting uncomfortable.

I love a home underdog, especially one that's being heavily bet against.

The Ravens are one of the hottest picks to improve this year, and I understand why. Lamar's healthy again and the roster top to bottom is among the best in the league. They're a popular pick to win the AFC North, and a not-so-uncommon pick to win the conference.

So this line smells a little fishy.

The Ravens ranked 30th against the run last year. They have Madubuike back which should help, but even if they're slightly improved this makes for a tough matchup against a Colts team that will surely rely on the run in Danny Dimes' first game back from a torn achilles. JT is their best player, and behind a good offensive line should have the advantage in this game.

The beauty for us is the Colts don't even need to win. But I won't be surprised if they do.

Silver Medal Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4

I love getting the Bucs at this number. Although my season outlook for these two teams is much different than what this pick suggests, this is about one game. And on paper, these teams aren't too dissimilar.

The Bucs front office shenanigans ended with signed contracts for both Vita Vea and Baker Mayfield. Mike Evans is gone, but the rest of the crew is there, including a very strong offensive line.

I think the Bengals defense, who added a bunch of pieces in the offseason, won't click on all cylinders right away as they take time to mesh. So even if their offense does, the Bucs should be able to match them.

This is also a matchup between a team that always starts season's fast (Tampa) and a team that habitually starts slow (Cincy). I'm not basing this solely off that, but it doesn't hurt the case.

I'm picturing a shootout. If true, it should be within four points regardless of who wins. And that means we win.

Bronze Medal Game: Dallas Cowboys -3

A little against my own grain on this one picking a road favorite, but I love this spot for Dallas.

A full offseason of zero drama for Big D will have these boys ready to go. Sure there's hype around the team, but for the first time in a long time the Cowboys are dominating headlines because of on-field discussion rather than off.

I said it in my NFC preview, but I'm fading the Giants hype this year. I've seen multiple analysts pick them as a wild card team (scratches head), with Harbaugh ready to turn this franchise around in a hurry and a defense that's loaded with talent.

I'm just not a believer in Jaxson Dart yet, and don't think they'll be able to match Dallas' offensive output.

I expect Dak and the Cowboys offense to be in midseason form right away, as the chemistry is already there, while the Giants deal with some growing pains.