The AFC is Drunk Too

Tis the season, and the eggnog is being passed around the NFL like a Svedka fifth at a high school party. And not grandma’s eggnog. I’m talking Uncle Tony’s eggnog, that one with a little more punch packed.

While the NFC is drunk (see last week’s blog), the AFC is hammered. I’m talking falling down the stairs, slur-slipping hammered. Someone get this conference a glass of water and a liquid IV.

There are currently NINE teams sitting at either 8-5 or 7-6. Nine! And that’s not including the Dolphins and Ravens who have all but clinched their respective playoff berths with three losses. Nine teams vying for five spots. Even a sober person is seeing blurry when looking at this playoff picture.

AFC WEST

Let’s start in the AFC West, where the Chiefs locked up their fourth straight division tit……wait what?? This division is NOT over, as the Broncos have climbed to within one game of Kansas City, having already split the season contests with their not-so-friendly foe. Who’d have believed this in October after the Broncos lost by 7 million to the Dolphins and the Chiefs were sitting at 4-1. If you raised your hand you’re lying. But here we are. The Chiefs have a better division and much better conference record than Denver, so in all likelihood would own the tiebreaker if it came to that, but the fact this is a possibility feels asinine. Kansas City is 2-4 in their last six games, and continue to appear lost on offense. Travis Kelce is garnering defensive attention the likes his girlfriend gets from the entire female population. He’s effective but not explosive like we’ve seen in seasons past. And it’s because the defense isn’t scared of anyone else. Pacheco is a formidable runner when healthy, but the Chiefs lack weapons. And not only are their WRs non-weapons, but complete liabilities. They drop more passes than any group in football. They are consistently on different wavelengths than their QB on choice routes. And they line up in the neutral zone on a would’ve been all-time highlight for their franchise and the league. This team continues to shoot themselves in the foot, and as the weather gets colder and contenders are rounding into form, the Chiefs are looking more like a piece at the KC Museum of Modern Art that no one can understand than a Super Bowl favorite.

The Broncos are one of the stories of the league. Sean Payton needs to be in the running for Coach of the Year, and Russ for CPOY. Neither will nor should win, but the turnaround they’ve put together to this point deserves some level of recognition. A win in Detroit this Saturday would certainly amplify those talks, and they finish the season with New England, a potentially Justin Herbert-less Chargers, and the Raiders. The defense is back to their 2022 era, and with Russ showing flashes of the old magic he used to stir up in Seattle and Courtland Sutton making a more ridiculous catch than he did the week prior, this isn’t a team I’d want to see in the Wild Card round.

AFC SOUTH

Let’s move to the drunkest division in the AFC, the South. Like the Chiefs, the Jaguars appeared to have this division on lock as recently as two weeks ago when they snuck out a win in Houston to grab a two-game advantage over the Texans. But much as changed since. The Jags lost to the Jake Browning-led Bengals and Joe Flacco-led Browns, Trevor broke his ankle in half but played six days later, again being plagued by turnovers which continues to be the Achilles heel of his all-pro career trajectory, and the defense stinks more than my bathroom after dinner at the local Hibachi joint. 65 points to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco?? This team is going nowhere fast until they fix that side of the ball. I don’t care what Trevor looks like.

They got bailed out yesterday, at least, by the injury to CJ Stroud, and their good friend Jake Browning, whose varsity-caliber weaponry continues to run circles on JV defenses. The race to nowhere will be a fierce one between the Jags and Texans if CJ is out for an extended period of time with his concussion. My incredibly uneducated guess is he’ll miss next week against Tennessee and be able to return for the last three. Emphasis on incredibly uneducated. I don’t see them beating Tennessee in Tennessee without CJ, Tank Dell, and potentially Nico Collins. What’s been such an exciting year in Houston may come crashing down in a Pompeii-style collapse, with Mount Vesuvius’s lava coming in the form of the injury report.

The Colts, yes, the Colts, are the third team in this division fighting for a playoff spot. What the fuck is the NFL this year. Led by a hillbilly, the Colts have been one of the more exciting teams in football this year, scoring a lot of points and giving up even more (top eight in points for and against). I can’t with any confidence stake my claim as a supporter of the Colts, so I won’t. But if I were to make a case, I’d say read my last two paragraphs again. The Jags are reeling, and the Texans are broken (literally, the bodies of Texan players are broken). So the Colts have a chance, and they don’t need to win the division to make the postseason. The Steelers, Falcons, Raiders, Texans are who remains for them. All of those games to me are toss ups, but so is every game the Colts play. That’s why they’re 7-6. Right on brand. I’m not betting they’ll make the playoffs, but they might make for an under the radar great game on Wild Card Weekend if they do.

Wild Card Contenders Who Won't Win the Division 

The Browns have the best roster of the current Wild Card teams outside of the QB, even though Joey Spirals is slinging it right now, so for sake of argument and time let’s say they’re in. The remaining two spots are left for the teams I’ve already mentioned, the Steelers, Bills, or Bengals. If the Steelers make the playoffs I’ll punch a baby. Like a bratty baby that deserves it…ok fine I won’t punch a baby. But I’m that confident they won’t that I’ll put that into the ether. Maybe I could say if the Steelers make the playoffs I’ll believe in ghosts, cause at that point what’s real and what’s not. The Steelers are a mess. I wrote a blog last Friday about it, and I hold true to what I said. I won’t repeat myself here.

The Bills need to make the playoffs. For football fans everywhere, for the NFL, for cable channels who paid nine figures to the NFL to broadcast these games, we need the Bills. They’re the best and most exciting team in this bunch and I don’t think it’s close (argument for the Browns). They can hang with any team in the league, especially the AFC, and have a QB that can and has put his Superman cape on, doing things few can. They need to be in. But my confidence they will be isn’t quite there, and they don’t have an easy road. Every game seems tough. Good team, bad team, mediocre team, they make it hard for themselves. Which is great for entertainment, but not for the mental stability of their fans. I don’t know if they’re going to win three of their next four, which they may need to do given the current tiebreak situation. But I know they can. I want them in the playoffs, and you should too.

Last and close to least are the Bengals. Joe who? Jake Browning is done browning his pants and his currently lighting the league on fire, and with it igniting the hopes of the shitty fans of the terrible city of Cincinnati. Unfortunately for them, they’ll have to start playing actual NFL defenses the rest of the way. No more Jaguars and Colts, in come the unsarcastically lethal Vikings defense this Saturday, the Steelers in Pittsburgh, Chiefs, and Browns. Nothing easy there. Credit to Jake Browning for allowing me to be interested in these games, as I wasn’t as of seven days ago, but my crystal ball doesn’t have a happy ending for this team with this schedule. 9-8 at best is what I see, likely 8-9. And hey, that might be enough. Just get the ball to your playmakers in space and see what happens. 

That’s it. I mean, that’s a lot, but that’s it. 

With four weeks remaining, this conference is as open as Ravens' receivers after double moves on the Rams yesterday. Anything can happen. It’s a stockpile of slightly above average teams going against either other, and likely a bounce here or there will be the difference. 

This conference is hammered. I am too now just thinking about it. God I love football.

P.S. For the record, my current picks are Browns, Bills, and Broncos.