Divisional Preview: How Every Game Could Be The Best Game Of The Weekend

Divisional round weekend in my opinion is the best football weekend of the year. Sure there's two less games than the Wild Card, but the pretenders have been weeded out. Only the real dogs are left, the ones that aren't afraid of the moment. The ones whose nuts drop lower when the lights turn bright, who relish in the opportunity to play in front of the world - the ones who were born for the biggest moments.

Contrary to popular belief, all eight remaining teams are capable of winning the whole thing. I choose that word very cautiously since all that technically means is a non-zero chance. Some are pretty close to zero, but if the Steelers somehow beat the Ravens last week I wouldn't be able to say that. Pittsburgh's chance would still have been zero.

Every team has elite players. Most have elite to above average coaching. And some have both. So while the matchups of this Divisonal weekend may not have the hype across the board as in year's past, there's plenty worth watching. Take it from the top!

Chiefs/Texans

I get sentimental talking about the Chiefs in the playoffs. I think back to the glory days, the days as a Patriot fan where this was the start of our season. I remember the questions after regular season losses, to which I'd discourteously respond "Talk to me in the Divisonal round". The days where even this weekend was treated as a ramp up, as for eight straight years we waltzed through a home game in Gilette in route to the AFC Championship. Ah, the good ole days.

The Chiefs are the modern Patriots, if you can call last decade vintage. With a win the Chiefs will play in their seventh straight AFC Championship, a run that started in the Patriots last appearance. I've written about this before, so I won't go too far down this rabbit hole, but I can't believe how no one unfriended me over the years of the Patriots reign. I hate the Chiefs, I'm so sick of them. I'm tired of seeing Pat Mahomes surgically tear apart a defense. I'm tired of him squabbling down the field so slow but somehow faster than the fastest LBs in football. I'm tired of Chiefs red, the glaze that Arrowhead gets as the hardest and loudest place to play, and seeing the Kelce's on every media outlet (including Jason, they're the same at this point). I'm just sick of them winning. I want to hold onto the Patriots forever. I don't want anyone matching that, or even coming close. Idk how much I'd vehemently root against KC if I wasn't a Patriots fan. But I'm confident I still would.

Reminder: This Chiefs run would need to continue for 12 more years to match the Patriots.

For this game, the concern is rust. I never loved the rust vs rest argument if a team is coming off a one week bye, but this is the longest rest any team has ever had before their first playoff game. The Chiefs starters last played on Christmas Day...24 days ago. Three and a half weeks feels like an entire season of not playing football. If anyone is up for the task it's this group, but there's no doubt the first quarter will dictate this game.

The Texans have to come out firing. If I'm Houston, I'm all-in on every hand. Push the chips in, and if you lose, load the clip again. One benefit of being a team no one expects anything of is you have nothing to lose, and I don't think DeMeco Ryans is short on balls. I think the aggressiveness will need to be emphasized on the defensive side. Yes, CJ will need to make plays down the field and Joe Mixon will have to have an impact early to open things up, which he's struggled to do outside of the Bengals AFC Championship dub over KC in KC. But this game will come down to getting Mahomes off the field on third down.

The Chiefs aren't very explosive, and have leaned on longer, methodical drives this year. Maybe the addition of Hollywood Brown has changed that, but I believe KC will have a lot of 3rd and shorts - their bread basket. KC is the 2nd best team in the league on 3rd down, but are going against a Texans squad who's 3rd best at defending them. That 3rd best defense didn't show up in KC a month ago, but that was without Al-Shaair in the lineup. I think he's the key to this game. He's a lightning rod in the middle of the field, and DeMeco will need to get creative in finding ways to create pressure, and potentially use Al-Shaair as a spy if/when Mahomes escapes the pocket. One thing I know is Al-Shaair won't be afraid to hit Mahomes; that dude isn't afraid to hit anyone. I wish there was a bet on if he'd get ejected. If Houston can get the stops they're accustomed to on the money down, they'll be live in this one.

I just need to see it before I believe it.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Lions/Commanders

I wish the Bucs won last week. Not just because I picked them and the playoff pool I'm in would've flipped on it's head, but that would've led to two epic matchups in the NFC. Anytime playoff football is played it's epic, especially games held inside of Ford Field, but who wouldn't have wanted to see Stafford go back to Detroit one more time to a three and a half hour continuous "Jared Goff" chant?

I digress.

The obvious question mark on Detroit is the defense, who likely has a member of the Commanders' week one practice squad suiting up tonight. This "broken" defense tore Sam Darnold and the Vikings to shreds in week 18 en route to this one seed, and a lot of concerns were quickly tossed aside.

But should they have been? How many open TDs did Darnold miss in that game? How many times have we seen tape of him being flustered and missing routine throws he made all year before the games meant something? This isn't me piggybacking my Vikings hate blog from this week, but as I watched that Rams/Vikings game Monday night, I wondered how much of that week 18 game was truly the Lions, or just the Vikings fully imploding.

Detroit's defense prior to that game allowed 33 PPG in the four preceding weeks. I don't think one good game against a clearly flawed team can mitigate all of those red flags.

Here's the good news for Washington. Jayden Daniels isn't Sam Darnold.

Idk how, but this dude in his first year in the league has already become one of the best clutch QBs in the game. There has yet to be a moment too big (although he's yet to be in a moment this big), and week after week, when the pressure is highest and stakes are greatest, he continues to come through for his team, with a smile on his face like he's playing schoolyard ball.

His nonchalant, calm/cool demeanor has infected this team. They've won five (!!) straight games on the last play of the game. That breaks the probability curve and has scientists everywhere questioning the laws of everything they've ever studied. So this team, despite being here for the first time, feels vetted. They've been in this spot for a month and a half, and every time have come through. They have a QB that no defense has been able to contain, even defenses with actual NFL starters. So Jayden must be licking his chops going up against third strings.

Scary Terry will need to have his patented 60-yard bomb. The other receivers (where the fuck did Dyami Brown come from) will have to join Zach Ertz has down-to-down playmakers, and I predict the RBs will be more used in the passing game than on the ground. I think too highly of Aaron Glenn to think he won't make Jayden beat him through the air, but Jayden has surprised me so much that I wouldn't put it past him to surprise me again.

I hope it's a shootout, but I only feel confident one team will put up shootout numbers.

Pick: Detroit Lions

Eagles/Rams

Did you see what the Rams did last week? Did you see how they dismantled the best Wild Card team in NFL history and had Sam Darnold seeing the ghosts of Jets past? How they openly carried the weight of the LA fires, the weight of a whole region, on their shoulders, and used it as motivation to provide hope to many in need of it?

It's a great story. I love when sports teams understand the importance of what they mean to their communities, because they mean a lot. That in times of darkness, realize they play for so much more than themselves, and wear that on their sleeve. That in these times, they provide what sports are really here for: an escape from reality.

I'm rooting for them because I'm rooting for the people of LA, much like the Saints and the people of New Orleans years ago.

But contrary to my blog headline, I can't find a way this one's close. In fact, I feel most confident about this being a blowout than the other games.

LA has turned into a defensive team frankly out of nowhere in the back stretch of the season. The defensive starters haven't allowed 10 points in a game since December 8th. That's fucking crazy. And the strength of that defense is their D line. When they went up against a pass-happy Vikings team who loves to scheme intermediate, long developing routes for their receivers, this Rams front four feasted. Nine sacks, over 30 pressures, you watched the game. It was a bloodbath for the Minnsota O Line. The matchup played right into LA's hands.

This week is strength on strength. Philly's O Line is almost unanimously viewed as the best in football. Saquon, who's also almost unanimously viewed as the best RB in football, leads the league in yards, as well as yards before contact. The Eagles are a run first team, which neutralizes the daunted Rams pass rush. If Philly can run out the gates, this Rams defense will be on its heels for the first time since Thanksgiving. Eagles OL > Rams DL.

And the matchup continues to favor Philly on the flip side. As great as the defensive front for LA is/has been, Philly's is better, at least statistically. The Eagles are top ten in pass rush/run stop win rate, both better than LA and much better than their OL counterparts. They're the league's number one pass defense, where the pass rush is a mere complement to their lockdown secondary, going up against a team that struggles to pass block and for weeks has been reliant on one WR for the majority of it's offense. Eagles defense > Rams offense.

So Philly can take away the Rams strength on offense and defense, leaving them what? A lot of screen passes to Puka hoping he breaks six tackles? A loaded box that leaves one on one opportunities for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith?

Idk how to cut this in a positive way for the Rams, whose offense didn't necessarily click last week despite the blowout win.

Give me the birds all day in this one. Football is about matchups.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Bills/Ravens

You want storylines? You've come to the right place. You don’t need me to hype this game up.

Lamar and Josh, the two best QBs who've yet to get over the hump, the two favorites for MVP this year, the two most exciting QBs in football, pinned against each other in as high stakes of a non-Championship game as we've had in recent memory.

I'm finding it difficult to quantify how important this game is for each team, and how excited I am for it. I'm also finding it hard to have any conviction as to the winner.

But that's the job. So while the world flocks to the Ravens, as they've done in years past before their postseason collapses, my mind stays stuck on the thought that something special is brewing in Buffalo.

I think Josh is in as much control of himself, which was always his sticking point, as he's ever been. I think the offense has never had as much confidence, has never been as tight, as it is this season. I think the sense of team is strong, knowing that everyone plays their role, and their roles are defined.

That the defense has their leader in Matt Milano back, and have slowly played better each week since his return. That Milano, Bernard, and Taron Johnson, all leaders of this unit, didn't played in the week 4 ass-kicking in Baltimore but are suiting up Sunday.

I love that this team is the underdog again. I bet they do too. That all year they've defied the expectations of a rebuilding year, and said fuck you to the football knowers that predicted a step back. Could you imagine how dumb you'd need to be to pick the Dolphins over this team? (me, I did...)

I don't see the weather playing a major impact outside of the impending memes of Lamar and his 27 layers he'll have on the sideline.

This is a game that you sit back and enjoy. It doesn't matter who you root for, if you like football - hell even if you don't like football - you'll want to tune in. Cause this is entertainment at its highest level. Just give me a good game.

Pick: Buffalo Bills

I know I'm supposed to be the contrarion. That picking four home teams to win isn't fun, edgy, or adventurous. But sometimes the hardest thing to do is not overthink. To not take the bait and walk through the wardrobe to Narnia. To not see what could be, and trust what is. Sometimes, despite what I said last week, football is that simple.

I can't wait for 4:30.