Best Case Scenarios For The Fanbases That Actually Care About The First Round

Maybe it's just me, the football sicko, that's equally as interested in listening to a scout turned TV-personality talk about the physical and mental traits of literal children, and where those children may or may not get drafted based on secret conversations they had with scouts not turned TV personalities, as I am the NBA and NHL playoffs. Or really anything. Could just be me.

But if it's you too, then we're feeling the same energy; the energy that football is (almost) almost back.

The draft is Thursday, and with it comes the hope of a better future for the fanbases starving for wins. I know the draft only matters for certain fanbases; I still consider myself a new participant, as for years I was accustomed to picking in the late 20s/early 30s and not giving a shit about football until the season actually started. But my team has been so bad my hope for a brighter future started a month ago during free agency, the lowest point a fan can get (Patriots are back tho).

And that hope will be re-ignited Thursday night when the ESPN music plays (duh nuh nuh NUH, duh nuh nuh NUH nuh). You definitely hummed that.

I love the (first round of the) draft. I won't lie and say I'll be glued in to sixth round coverage on Saturday - there is a limit to my sicko-ness - but there's a certain buzz about the first round I can't deny.

So as we all will on Thursday night, let's put our GM hat on. This is how, if I was the boss, Thursday would go.

1st Pick: Titans Get Their QB

I know I know it's not suspenseful. I'm sure if you read my blog you're a frequenter of the dark web and were on the Twitch stream where Cam Ward included Treylon Burks and Tyjae Spears among his "best weapons in the league" list.

But it's a need thing. The Titans don't have a terrible roster - they were the big free agency acquisition team a year ago. They have a WR1, an effective running game, an improved OL, and big names across the defense. They just need a QB.

Quick side rant about the few mock drafts I've read that say the Titans bolstering their offensive line in free agency is proof this is the pick. How moronic is that. Would they not have given a shit about their OL if they weren't drafting a QB first overall? Is having a bad OL otherwise a good plan? Give me a break.

I digress, but Tennessee is starving for a QB. Cam Ward has enough "wow" attributes and college highlights to make him worth the selection, and they can save Brian Callahan's head from exploding with another Will Levis season.

Take the QB and hope for the best. It can't get worse.

2nd: Browns Take Abdul Carter

It's crazy how badly the Browns need a QB, and equally as crazy that they simply can't take one in this spot given the two generational talents that sit in front of them.

How you choose between Carter and Hunter is a decision I'm glad I don't have to make. But since I only have to make it hypothetically, I'm taking Carter and pairing him with Miles Garrett - for a few reasons.

First, Cleveland's secondary is solid, debatably the best position group on the roster. One year ago they were widely viewed as the best secondary in the league, and despite a down year, all five projected starters on their current depth chart were on that 2023-24 team.

Second, all-world defensive lineman can win games on their own. The Browns should know this more than anyone having just paid Miles Garrett more than the GDP of Ohio. If Abdul Carter is all he's hyped up to be, he can take a lot of pressure off of Garrett, and if he doesn't, can cause chaos on his own. Having one of the most dominant defensive fronts in the league is an organizational direction you won't hear me question.

Lastly, DeShaun Watson is still their QB, so how much will WRs really matter. I kind of kid, but seriously, is Travis Hunter playing alongside Jerry Jeudy going to matter when DeShaun bullets one at his feet? Or when DeShaun puts the towel over his head and pouts on the sidelines between possessions after being sacked for the seventh time? There are still proven veteran WRs the Browns can pick up before training camp, but there's no pro-bowl potential pass rushers left on the market.

Take this draft's most freakish athlete and at least let your fan base cheer for some sacks until you get the QB situation fixed.

3rd: Giants Take Whoever Falls To Them

Whoever Cleveland passes on the Giants should take. In my scenario, that's Travis Hunter, and the Giants, no matter how much they like Shedeur Sanders, must take Travis.

As a Patriots fan I hope they don't, but Joe Schoen isn't that dumb. Right? They already have Malik Nabers - if you add Travis Hunter you'll solidify a WR corps for at least a half decade, one that may be enough to lure an upper echelon free agent QB next year if you aren't in position to draft this high again. Plus he plays defense too, which you also suck at.

The Giants can't miss here no matter who falls to them. Unless they don't take them. Fingers crossed for that.

4th: Patriots Trade Back Or Take Best Available, Even If It's Not an Offensive Lineman

The week 18 win against the Bills still pains me. We should be drafting first, having the three aforementioned teams kissing the ground we walk on, showering us with gifts until we eventually hold them against their will over a burning pit of fire until they hand over all of their most prized possessions. What could've been.

Now we're in a tough spot, a spot many are deeming "the start of the draft". Not really the place you want to be.

There's no consensus fourth best player, so in my ideal world we trade back to ~8-10, let one of the QB needy teams move up to take Shedeur, and get another first round pick next year or a couple extra this year.

If that doesn't happen, I want them to take the best player on the board regardless of position. If they think that's Will Campbell, great, that fits need and BPA. If it's a DL like Mason Graham or LB like Jalon Walker, take them. As much as I hate to say it we're more than one piece away from contending, despite all the pieces we've already added, so take the guy that's going to make the biggest impact on the field, regardless of where that is.

I don't want Jeanty, that's my one wish. Good, cheap RBs are for title contenders. And I still like RheMondre.

In Vrabel we trust.

5th: Who Cares It's The Jaguars

No one is losing sleep over who they think the Jags are taking at 5. They need weapons, but it's likely too early to take a non-Travis Hunter WR. They let Evan Engram go, but it's debatably to early to go the TE route. So they probably go defender, and the rest of us take a 10-minute cat nap while the draft analysts lie to a national audience about Trevor Lawrence being a top-tier QB.

6th: Raiders Act Smart And Don't Take The Shiny Toy

The Raiders are a popular landing spot for Ashton Jeanty, and understandably so. Vegas was the worst rushing team in the league last year by over 12 yards a game. They averaged 108 less rushing yards per game than the league-leading Ravens. LOL. So getting a stud at RB makes a lot of sense.

Except for what I just briefly gave as the reasoning for me not wanting the Patriots to select Jeanty; they're not ready to win. You've heard the Saquon example before. He was phenomenal with New York, and would've likely been this year too. But if he stayed, the Giants still would've stunk, just like they did for years with him.

RB values are the most team-dependent metric in football. If you're a playoff-caliber, cusp-contention team, an all-pro RB is worth every penny to put you over the edge. But if you're a bottom barrel team with a bad OL and even worse defense, than one groundbreaking RB isn't going to make the difference.

The ladder is the Raiders. There's too many holes for a RB to fix. Look for a WR1, OL, or secondary help.

7th: The Jets Beef Up The OL

I laughed out loud looking at the Jets receiving depth chart, so if they went the TE route with Tyler Warren or slightly reached for a WR I wouldn't punch air if I was a Jets fan (like I'd ever be a Jets fan).

But they need an offensive line, especially with Justin Fields as your QB. While some could make the argument a mobile QB can nullify a bad offensive line, my thought is this will be a run-first, run-often team with Fields behind center. If you don't have an offensive line that can block, that scheme won't be very successful. They should snag an OL, and sure up that portion of the offense. But it's the Jets so who knows.

8th: Panthers Have Their Pick Of The Litter On Defense

If my imaginary draft goes according to plan, the Panthers will be on the clock with potentially both Georgia pass rushers, two of the top three DTs, and the top two corners in the draft with their phone ringers still on loud. That's a beautiful sight to see for the worst defense in football last year.

I don't care who they go with cause I don't care about the Panthers, but trying to replace the hole Brian Burns left on the outside last year makes too much sense. Whoever they take will make an impact right away.

9th: Shedeur Heads To NOLA

Apparently the Saints and Kellen Moore want nothing to do with Shedeur - according to the experts.

But this isn't a mock draft, since my networking hasn't extended deep into NFL circles just yet.

So in my opinion they should take him. Derek Carr is dealing with some serious injuries and he's on his last legs in New Orleans anyway, so take the QB of the future (and potentially present) without having to move up to get him. I don't think the Saints are in as dire need of weapons as most believe, as Kamara, Olave, Cooks, and Shaheed make up a pretty talented group.

And I believe in Shedeur. He said he wants to go somewhere where he can change the culture. If you're New Orleans, there's been no culture since Brees/Payton left, so you should want that.

10th: Bears Also Pass On The Shiny New Toy

We saw last year that Chicago preferred flash over sense when they selected Rome Odunze over an offensive line. That worked out well...

And now with Ben Johnson at the helm, the consensus is that Chicago will once again go for flash, as many expect the Bears to take a weapon of some sorts, specifically Jeanty if still there.

But I don't see the Jeanty/Gybbs comparisons. I know the two-RB system flourished with Ben Johnson in Detroit, but Jeanty doesn't have Gybbs speed, and wasn't even a little bit of a receiving threat in college. I think the idea is great, but it's not apples to apples.

Tyler Warren is also popular, but they have a good TE in Kmet already, and I'm not sure he's still around at this point anyway. If I'm Chicago, I'm taking an impactful defender or OL, in a position where they need it more than the flashy ones.

11th: 49ers Start To Rebuild What They Lost

San Francisco is in a heap of trouble. The salary cap clearance in anticipation for Brock Purdy's pay day has commenced, and a loaded Niners team lost a ton of valuable parts to free agency last month. Now it's time to get young, and more importantly cheap, again.

Luckily for them they're in good position to, as they have the most picks in the league this year, despite hilariously losing one pick to a payroll accounting error, which I desperately want to know more about.

The free agent departures were mainly on the defensive side, so if one of the edge rushers slip to 11 my money is they take them. But they also need more competent OL besides Trent Williams to protect their soon to be $300 million man. So I think it depends on who's available and they go for best value. Cause as crazy as it seems being one year removed from the Super Bowl, the Niners have a bunch of holes to fill.

12th: Cowboys Make Front Page Headlines Again And Take Jeanty

According to the mock drafts this feels like a pipedream, but in my GM world you pass on a RB if that's one of a million things you need to fix, which is the case for most teams ahead of Dallas who need one.

If Jeanty somehow sits at 12, I'm taking him in the first three seconds of my time on the clock if I'm Dallas. They have the one-two punch with Dak and CeeDee, and while they desperately need a WR2, we've seen what that offense can be with a running game. The OL is still solid, and Jeanty's style kind of feels like vintage Zeke, a patient runner who's hard to get down.

This would be the perfect pick for the Cowboys, not just for their usual off-field press, but on the field too.

Picks 13-32

We've reached the lull of the night, especially if Shedeur and Jeanty are off the board. The part of the night where you finish your laundry, read some of your book, or play a game of cribbage to pass the time.

Like I said in the preface, the draft's excitement tapers off once you reach teams that are already competitive. Only the fans who need to rely on their top 10 pick to be the generational talent that can change the course of their franchise care that much about this night.

We get to the players who ESPN never talked about and no average Joe knows unless they played for their favorite college team. Yeah, they'll be some WRs off the board, some Jerad Verse-type picks that some college football knowers will recognize, but none will have the affection of the fanbase the way the top 10 do, simply cause the team is already pretty good. 14 of the 20 remaining teams were in the playoffs last year, and the other six had at least 8 wins.

This isn't to diminish the talent or ability of the players drafted here, or the impact they may have on their team. Really it's about me not boring you too much, cause 32 teams is a lot.

Thanks if you got this far.

Happy draft to those who celebrate.