AFC West Preview: Is This The Year Someone Else Wins The West?

The AFC West has weirdly become one of the more volatile divisions in football despite one team reigning supreme for nearly a decade. Just last year, I wrote about how bleak this division looked.

The talks of anyone in the division overtaking the kingdom are long gone. No brave soul is out there talking about the Chargers on upset alert. The Broncos just reset after one of the more prominent failed experiments in league history. And the Raiders are, well, the Raiders.

In the 2023-24 season, three of the four teams not named the Chiefs were under .500. One season later, there's two teams that are universally perceived to be playoff caliber teams, and one that's sitting in limbo but brings in some hope of change.

As any dynasty goes, there's always the question of "is this the year it ends?" And it does seem like this is the best chance of it in a while. But I've learned better. Remember, I know a thing or two about dynasties.

Kansas City Chiefs

Can you imagine going to three straight Super Bowls, five of the last seven Super Bowls, winning three of them, and having a chip on your shoulder? Having actual doubters?

Every year the Chiefs become more and more like the Patriots of old, as they're handed the motivation they need to come back better than the year before on a silver platter by the media. I've heard way too many people say that the Chiefs blowout loss in the Super Bowl was enough to give every other team in the league, the same teams they've consistently beaten for nearly a decade, enough confidence to believe they can beat them too. That the one loss to one of the most dominant teams we've ever seen was enough to make them appear mortal to the other mortals.

Give me a fucking break. The Chiefs went 15-2 last year with Mahomes having his statistically worst season of his career. With having their RB1 injured for half the season. With their WR1 injured for more than half the season including the playoffs, and their would've been WR2 not play until Christmas. And they didn't play their starters in week 18!

This team is objectively better this year. While it'll be hard to replicate 15 wins, they'll more than likely look better doing it. I get that it's cool to be the hot take and predict the Chiefs' fall first. I get that the division is arguably the best in football. But there's no realistic way you can look at this roster and coaching staff who have done it time and time again and are all still there, and think this year will be worse than last.

The Chiefs are getting the ammo they need to keep the fire burning. And they'll continue to light it. Chiefs -120 to win the division feels like stealing. Record: 12-5

Denver Broncos

I love to be right. I mean who doesn't. But there's few times I've been right about something no one else was more than when I predicted the Broncos, who were in complete disarray after the Russell Wilson debacle, would make the playoffs last year.

Because of my genius, I feel a paternal need to keep this belief going. To coddle my little baby and remind them it was I, not anyone else who's now desperate for their attention, who believed in them. So how, if I saw what no one else could see, if I loved them when they were in braces and had a lisp, could I turn my back on them now?

This is where I'd in most cases I'd do exactly that, cause when there's fire in the NFL, turn and run the other way. But this team is just so good. And I think better than last year.

Their defense ranked 7th and 3rd in yards and points allowed, respectively, and added Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga (who's competing with Puka Nakua for most fun name in the NFL) this offseason. There's no weak spot on that side of the ball.

There's a few questions on offense, but the Evan Engram pickup gave the TE position a nice face lift. So did JK Dobbins in the backfield. And the best offensive line in football (who led the NFL in both pass and run block rate) have all five starters back.

The questions lie with the QB and pass catchers. If Bo Nix improves, and gets any consistent help outside of Courtland Sutton, this team will be dangerous. But I'm a little hesitant to go too far yet. I think their season will ride on a week 18 matchup with the Chargers in Denver, win or go home scenario. That'll be the Sunday night game for all the marbles, and I'll take that defense to come through. I believe in Sean Payton. Back in the postseason for the Mile High club. Record: 10-7

Los Angeles Chargers

Here's another team where my belief in their head coach is making me second guess my belief in their team. In this case, though, the Chargers depth chart isn't nearly as sexy as Denver's.

Unless Omarion Hampton pans out, they downgraded at RB in the JK Dobbins for Najee Harris swap. I'd like to think one of my favorite WRs and a fantasy mainstay of mine over the years in Keenan Allen has some tread left to pair with McConkey, but I may be at the "need to see it to believe it" stage.

Their defense isn't chalk full of household names, yet they led the league in scoring defense last year. That's coaching. That's belief. That's Jim Harbaugh.

I think Justin Herbert is criminally overrated, and I'm happy to argue anyone who says differently. But he didn't have to be the superstar the media claims him to be to win games last year, and hopefully for the Chargers he won't need to be this year.

I think they'll win games and win them ugly, just as Harbaugh wants it. But when it comes down to their season on the line, under the bright lights in oxygen-deprived Colorado, week 18, win or go home, Herbert will do what he does best: not come through when it matters most. Record: 9-8

Las Vegas Raiders

There have been very generous things said about the Raiders on television the last few weeks. VERY generous.

It must be because of the coach, in what we should label the division of coaches, cause I don't see why else any the praise is pouring in for the Raiders.

Can someone explain this to me? What am I missing? Was it the defense that ranked 26th in points and just from the clouds cut their $110 million man Christian Wilkins? Was it the WR corps that's led, yes led, by Jacobi Meyers? The same Jacobi Meyers that just asked for a trade and may or may not be on the field? Don’t try and tell me Amari Cooper will be the difference.

The Geno Smith story is incredible. Like Kim K, I always love a comeback story, where someone who's been tossed in the trash and left for dead comes back to life. But I think a massive reason for Geno's ascension was the lethal weapons he had at his disposal in Seattle. He had DK, Tyler Lockett, and last year JSN. A lot of quarterbacks could look good throwing to that group. I can't look at this group of pass catchers and imagine replicated success.

Ashton Jeanty and Raheem Mostert are miles better than last year's backfield, but their offensive line stinks so they might not go so far. Enough talk about the Raiders, I won't hear anymore of it. Record: 6-11