The Gambling Show: Week 5

Season Record: 6-5-1

Being on the wrong side of a last second field goal to keep us from going 3-0 is starting to become commonplace, and while watching that game crushed me, I felt good, again, about how we're seeing the board. Zig when others zag. Listen when Vegas talks to you. We all know what to do. I'm dying for the first 3-0 week of the season, and this week we get ugly trying to find it.

Gold Medal Game: Saints -2

Like I said, we're getting ugly. I don't love betting on a game where the combined team record is 1-7, but money is to be made anywhere, and this line, and the movement specifically, sticks out the most to me.

Jaxson Dart is now QB1 in New York and in his debut beat the at-the-time undefeated Chargers. New York is in a frenzy, throwing dart parties in the tailgate lots, thinking that the future is now. But Dart didn't light up the scoreboard last week, with only 111 yards passing and 5 sacks which netted 89 total passing yards. He ran the ball effectively, but that was just one of those weird muck it up games that happen a few times a year in the Meadowlands. They lost Malik Nabers for the season, Tyrone Tracy is still out, so I don't think Dart is in the greatest position to succeed.

The Saints on the other hand, with one exception in Seattle, have played teams tough all year. They were a play away from beating Arizona in week one, had a chance with the ball to beat a healthier San Francisco than the one that beat the Rams last night in week 2, and were within a field goal of the Bills last week in Buffalo in the fourth quarter. They continue to play hard, and at home I think they're due.

The line opened at +2.5 for the Saints, and within the week has moved more than half a touchdown, with the majority of bets coming for New York and the Jaxson Dart hype. So I'll fade the hype as I always do and be the guy on Sunday that turns heads when I ask to put on the Giants/Saints game.

Silver Medal: Chargers -3

I'm going to stick to my "I don't think the Commanders are that great" take here. I know Jayden is back and with that the offense should be more potent, but I'm not sure who he's planning to throw the ball to. Terry McLaurin finds himself on the inactive report, along with WR3 Noah Brown, and Deebo as of Thursday didn't practice, so whether he plays Sunday looks unclear. Not to mention Ekeler remains out on IR.

The Chargers are clearly better than they played last week, and I think they have the matchup advantage on both sides of the ball. The offense and Herbert, other than last week, has looked dynamic, and Washington's defense is most vulnerable in the secondary. I see a nice bounce back for Herby this week after easily his worst performance of the year.

This isn't the defense you want to play in your first game back from injury if your Jayden, especially without potentially your top three targets. His ability to scramble always makes you nervous, but the Chargers just played a QB with good scrambling ability that did so effectively against them, so I think they learn a couple things and make adjustments. I think the Bolts win by a comfortable touchdown.

Bronze Medal: Broncos +4

This is uncomfortable because you're going against the champs, at home, who somehow cover every game despite not playing that great, and in the last two weeks in particular, literally only playing competent football for two quarters against top notch competition.

Philly just feels due for a loss. They've been living on the edge all year, and against a good and more confident Denver team, this feels like the spot. Good news for us is that we don't need them to lose, just win close.

The Eagles have the second worst passing offense in football, and have the fourth worst yardage differential in the league despite their 4-0 record. In this week's version of "Football for Dummies", that's not really a good team. It feels impossible for them to continue this trend, and I want to be on the right side of it when it comes true.

Denver has lost it's two games by a combined 4 points to two teams that are arguably playing better football than the Eagles, also both on the road. Not that beating the Joe Burrow-less Bengals is going change my opinion too much of a team, but the way they did it had to be uplifting. The defense who was supposed to be top 5 in the league finally got some swagger back. Bo Nix had a great game and got some non Courtland Sutton help, and the run game continues to look dominant, while finally introducing rookie RJ Harvey to the world. For a team needing a boost, Monday night couldn't have come at a better time, and confidence is high heading to the Linc.

I'm always nervous that AJ Brown will go off after his bi-monthly scheduled complaint about the offense, and that the Eagles who haven't looked that great will put it all together, but I'm willing to take the chance they don't, because of the team they're playing and the fact they don't need to lose in order for me to win. The line opened at 5.5 and in some places is down to 3.5, so I think getting the round 4 is the right play.

Remember, it's the times that feel the most uncomfortable that reap the biggest reward. See you next week.