The Gambling Show: Week 1

Enough with the division previews, this is what you've been waiting for. It's time to make some money.

Before you laugh me off the screen thinking I'm just like any Instagram/Tik Tok "ball knower" that just likes to gamble, let me remind you my gambling history, which has been documented for three years on the podcasts of Fundamentally Unsound, whose episodes can be found on this very website if you care to fact check me, that I don't just like to gamble. I'm good at it.

Records over the years:*

• 2021: 28-11

• 2022: 24-15

• 2023: 25-17

*We didn't have shows all 18 weeks when we were out of town for holidays, etc. We had 13-14 shows per year where picks were recorded. Last year the show stopped, and although I didn't blog my picks I kept track on my phone, going 30-20-1. Since I don't have proof I didn't want to include, and will let you believe me if you'd like.

In case you're more of a right side brain person, that's 72% win rate in 2021, 62% in 2022, and 60% in 2023 (and 60% last year). Three years of documenting picks, with the weight of my friends' bank accounts in my hands, and I've yet to go below 60%. I'm not playing with this.

So if you're new, I pick three games per weekend, no more and no less, spread only. I bet every one of the picks I make, and they are the only three bets I make that week. In the show we used to rank them gold, silver, and bronze based on our confidence level, and used it as a points system for a season long race. Although there's no longer a head to head competition, in honor of the show, I'll keep my ranking system.

Enough waiting, let's get to the picks (lines were taken on Wednesday night when I wrote this).

Gold Medal Game: Dolphins Pick em'

When I first glanced at the week 1 lines a week or so ago, this game practically jumped out of my phone screen (at the time it was Dolphins +1.5).

I don't love the Dolphins this season, but I like the Colts even less. Check out my AFC East and South blogs if you want the details as to why.

I'm envisioning a hot start for the once high flying Dolphins offense before things start to crumble. I'm imagining the Colts sadly walking off the field losing 31-13, and the camera panning and staying on Anthony Richardson, pretending like he would've made a difference.

I don't see this game being close. I think the Dolphins front four, arguably the team's best unit, feasts on Daniel Jones and causes at least one turnover. I see Tua force-feeding the ball to Tyreek to keep him happy and wanting to stay in Miami, and a big play or two coming from it. The line has already moved in the right direction. It's a field day for Miami in Indy.

Silver Medal Game: Cowboys +8.5

This line is so ridiculous I almost bumped this to my gold medal game. A divisional matchup on opening weekend, where the banner is raised in front of one of your longest and biggest rivals, and we're giving more than a touchdown? The line moved 2 points after the Micah Parsons trade? Quarterbacks are rarely worth that much on a gambling line.

If you read my NFC East preview you know I'm a bit higher than most on the Cowboys. That I don't think the Parsons trade was a good move overall, but won't change their team that drastically. But that frankly has nothing to do with this pick. I liked the Cowboys at 6.5, I really liked them at 7.5, but now I get them at 8.5? Don't ask me twice.

I think Dallas' offense should be pretty good, and the Eagles defense will be most vulnerable to all the turnover that had in the offseason on Thursday night. I think Dallas can take advantage and score some points.

Give me Dak off his worst season, a defense that just traded its best player, and all the value that comes with it. I still remember the Cowboys taking the Bucs to the brink on the road opening night after Brady won in Tampa. I see a similar result Thursday.

Bronze Medal Game: Saints +7

If you know me, you know I like ugly. When it comes to NFL gambling, of course. And nothing is uglier than this game on Sunday.

What I like more is getting a touchdown at home.

The 49ers are coming to New Orleans week 2 and are getting the same amount of points. The Saints then travel to Seattle and are also giving 7. How does that make sense? I think Arizona is the worst of those three, so this line feels off.

I can imagine a scenario where the Saints win this game, shock the NFL, and lose the next 7 or 8. There's one crazy upset every year week 1, like the Patriots beating Cincy in Cincy last year. I don't even need that to happen. Just keep it within a score.

I'm buying the half point to make this +7, and I think as long as the cost is -120 or better that's fair to count on my record. The Cardinals are not good enough to be getting a TD on the road, in a tough place to play regardless of how bad the team is/should be. Who dat, just for this week.